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Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:23 pm
by finman100
Yay!

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:28 pm
by pbennett
Durandal wrote:Tesla Model 3 is actually rolling out with less optioned models first, in order to simplify production, with dual motor and performance version rolling out in late 2017 or Q1 2018. As such, you can expect $36k - 7.5k = $28,500.


The Tesla will start losing their tax credits fairly soon.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/07/04/fe ... lear-sort/

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:19 pm
by Durandal
pbennett wrote:
Durandal wrote:Tesla Model 3 is actually rolling out with less optioned models first, in order to simplify production, with dual motor and performance version rolling out in late 2017 or Q1 2018. As such, you can expect $36k - 7.5k = $28,500.


The Tesla will start losing their tax credits fairly soon.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/07/04/fe ... lear-sort/

By fairly soon you mean Q3 or Q4 when they start to be reduced? Sure, applicable to those who haven't reserved yet. For myself, I should get mine about this time next year. :)

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:23 pm
by pbennett
Which is when the reductions could start... Not sure why you're so sure when you'll get it either, since Tesla hasn't told anyone when they'll get it. I've never received anything from them beyond 'thanks for the money...'. As for their build estimates, Tesla has never been right about any of their timelines or build schedules, ever.

Food for thought. I'll likely either get a Bolt or if more details on the new Leaf come out soon enough - a leaf.

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:35 pm
by jlv
Durandal wrote:
pbennett wrote:The Tesla will start losing their tax credits fairly soon.

By fairly soon you mean Q3 or Q4 when they start to be reduced?
Just to be clear: Q3 or Q4 of 2018. I guess that's "soon".

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:44 pm
by Dooglas
Durandal wrote:By fairly soon you mean Q3 or Q4 when they start to be reduced? Sure, applicable to those who haven't reserved yet. For myself, I should get mine about this time next year.

About half of the T3 reservations are for numbers beyond the cutoff off of the federal rebate. Who gets the full rebate and who gets less or none will come down to just what quarter of next year in which the target is actually passed. The calculations below suggest that the rebate during July of next year (3Q) will be 50% of the full $7,500 rebate.

http://redgreenandblue.org/2017/07/05/t ... will-work/

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:43 pm
by GRA
Dooglas wrote:
Durandal wrote:By fairly soon you mean Q3 or Q4 when they start to be reduced? Sure, applicable to those who haven't reserved yet. For myself, I should get mine about this time next year.

About half of the T3 reservations are for numbers beyond the cutoff off the federal rebate. Who gets the full rebate and who gets less or none will come down to just what quarter of next year in which the target is actually passed. The calculations below suggest that the rebate during July of next year (3Q) will be 50% of the full $7,500 rebate.

http://redgreenandblue.org/2017/07/05/t ... will-work/

We can expect Tesla to juggle deliveries to maximize the number of cars that will qualify for the rebate, i.e. they'll make sure to just fall short of the cut-off at the end of whichever quarter they approach it.

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:52 pm
by SageBrush
So long as Tesla is producing 20k cars a month when the phase-out approaches and Tesla manages the roll-out as reported, it seems fair to estimate at least 155k Model 3 will be eligible for the full tax credit. Since about half of the reservations are outside the US, that suggests that at around 90% of US 2016 reservation holders will be eligible for $7,500 and the remainder eligible for $3,750

Bottom line: Nissan cannot rely on a bigger tax credit to help them take sales from Tesla.

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:01 pm
by SageBrush
Dooglas wrote:
Durandal wrote:By fairly soon you mean Q3 or Q4 when they start to be reduced? Sure, applicable to those who haven't reserved yet. For myself, I should get mine about this time next year.

About half of the T3 reservations are for numbers beyond the cutoff off the federal rebate. Who gets the full rebate and who gets less or none will come down to just what quarter of next year in which the target is actually passed. The calculations below suggest that the rebate during July of next year (3Q) will be 50% of the full $7,500 rebate.

http://redgreenandblue.org/2017/07/05/t ... will-work/

A lot more than half of the US reservations are likely to receive the full rebate, since about half of total reservation are from outside the US

Re: Leaf 2 to be revealed in Sept, on sales before end of the year

Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:47 pm
by Dooglas
SageBrush wrote:
Dooglas wrote:
Durandal wrote:By fairly soon you mean Q3 or Q4 when they start to be reduced? Sure, applicable to those who haven't reserved yet. For myself, I should get mine about this time next year.

About half of the T3 reservations are for numbers beyond the cutoff off the federal rebate. Who gets the full rebate and who gets less or none will come down to just what quarter of next year in which the target is actually passed. The calculations below suggest that the rebate during July of next year (3Q) will be 50% of the full $7,500 rebate.

http://redgreenandblue.org/2017/07/05/t ... will-work/

A lot more than half of the US reservations are likely to receive the full rebate, since about half of total reservation are from outside the US

So, you agree or disagree that the above calculations are a reasonable estimate?