phr00t
Posts: 44
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:29 am
Delivery Date: 23 Mar 2017

Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:35 am

This page says the next Leaf redesign will have a 37.44kWh battery:

http://pushevs.com/2016/12/23/eaton-nissan-xstorage-reveals-future-battery-capacity/

The eGolf has a 35.8kWh battery, 119 MPGe & gets an EPA rating of 125 miles.
The Ioniq has a ~31.1kWh battery (28kWh usable as advertised), 136 MPGe & gets an EPA rating of 124 miles.

The current Leaf gets 112 MPGe, but we can safely assume the newer model will increase its efficiency.

If the new Leaf matches the Bolt's & eGolfs efficiency of 119 MPGe, the range will be around 130.7 miles. If the new Leaf can match the Ioniq's efficiency, the range will be around 149.3 miles.

Doubtful the Leaf will be able to match Ioniq's efficiency, for at least the heavier battery it will have to lug around. The current model only gets 112 MPGe, so an increase to 120-125 MPGe is likely their target.

I predict the next Leaf will then have an EPA range of 134 miles. If pricing stays roughly the same, expect a ~$30.7k MSRP bare-bones version (without a heat pump, heated seats or fast charging, as is with the current lowest model). Those features will all be standard on the Ioniq with an MSRP of ~$30.0k, but it will have slightly less range. The eGolf has worse efficiency / range (of the LEAF) & fewer standard features at likely a same price point.

What do you think of this prediction & how it may compare against the competition?

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1609
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:17 am

Interesting that they apply the 60% to the original capacity and not the current. Maybe there is a reason for that, I don't know.

If you apply the same math to the 30kWh battery, you end up with 48kWh. Incidentally, I've heard the 48kWh number speculated before, but not the 38kWh.

Just my 2 cents. I've given up on making actual predictions. I have been wrong too many times ;)

Like many others, I'm just going to wait until September when we'll know for sure.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)

phr00t
Posts: 44
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:29 am
Delivery Date: 23 Mar 2017

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:27 am

GetOffYourGas wrote:Interesting that they apply the 60% to the original capacity and not the current. Maybe there is a reason for that, I don't know.

If you apply the same math to the 30kWh battery, you end up with 48kWh. Incidentally, I've heard the 48kWh number speculated before, but not the 38kWh.


A comment from the linked article addressed that by saying "The xStorage 6 kWh edition is using the 32.5 Ah cells from the 24 kWh Leaf. You can easily calculate this by multiplying the Wh of each cell with the number of cells (48)."

Can we verify that?

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1609
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:41 am

I missed that.

If the 37.44kWh number is close to correct, I will be very disappointed in Nissan. And I will be enjoying my new Model 3 or Bolt instead.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)

webeleafowners
Posts: 342
Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2015 5:37 pm
Delivery Date: 06 Oct 2015
Location: Okanagan Valley British Columbia

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:20 am

It would work for us and keep us on the Nissan side of the fence. That would give an extra 60 km of range so for us with our driving habits about 250 Km. An updated car and it's not a Chevy. Were in.
2015 Smart Electric Drive convertible.
2016 Nissan Leaf SV 30KW
EV only Family...well except for the big diesel motorhome. :shock:

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1609
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:23 am

And that's why I hope Nissan will follow through with range options. A cheaper/shorter range car for the commuters. A more expensive/longer range car for those of us who want to travel medium distances regularly (in my case, ~300 with a single QC stop is my requirement).
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)

phr00t
Posts: 44
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:29 am
Delivery Date: 23 Mar 2017

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:34 am

webeleafowners wrote:It would work for us and keep us on the Nissan side of the fence. That would give an extra 60 km of range so for us with our driving habits about 250 Km. An updated car and it's not a Chevy. Were in.


250km would be outside of my predicted range, requiring a charge.

How would you compare this offering to the Hyundai Ioniq (more standard equipment, not a Chevy, more efficient but a bit less range @ 200km)?

webeleafowners
Posts: 342
Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2015 5:37 pm
Delivery Date: 06 Oct 2015
Location: Okanagan Valley British Columbia

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:42 am

phr00t wrote:
webeleafowners wrote:It would work for us and keep us on the Nissan side of the fence. That would give an extra 60 km of range so for us with our driving habits about 250 Km. An updated car and it's not a Chevy. Were in.


250km would be outside of my predicted range, requiring a charge.

How would you compare this offering to the Hyundai Ioniq (more standard equipment, not a Chevy, more efficient but a bit less range @ 200km)?


I haven't check out the ionic and we are aways away from a new car. Next winter we'll take the new crop of electrics for a drive when we are in Palm Springs.
2015 Smart Electric Drive convertible.
2016 Nissan Leaf SV 30KW
EV only Family...well except for the big diesel motorhome. :shock:

cliff
Posts: 104
Joined: Mon May 13, 2013 10:36 am
Delivery Date: 15 Sep 2012
Leaf Number: 022673
Location: Federal Way, WA

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:01 pm

All the pictures of the Leaf 2 battery have shown a taller battery, so a little
bigger physically. Adding a little more capacity.

Durandal
Posts: 303
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:55 am
Delivery Date: 22 Sep 2016
Leaf Number: 025018
Location: Central Arkansas

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:43 pm

The next EV I purchase must have a range of 200+ miles, and quick charging at a rate of at least 100kW. As such, that limits me to Tesla. I've already replaced my daily commuter with a Leaf, so the next replacement must be able to go on longer range trips. I occasionally must travel for work, so having a car that can go 160-180 miles round trip on one charge is a necessity unless DCFC becomes MUCH more prevalent.
Pulled the trigger on going EV on 10/2016 with a 2012 Leaf, and a Tesla Model 3 reservation expected to receive in June 2018.

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