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jhm614
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Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:50 pm

phr00t wrote:https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2016/12/16/ghosn-hints-at-substantial-ces-reveal-but-the-leafs-new-battery-could-disappoint-at-first/#28b382584b08

"Nissan’s long-awaited second generation of its battery-electric Leaf could make a public appearance as early as in a few weeks.

In its first year of existence, the new Leaf’s range could be not quite as breath-taking, consistent Yokohama scuttlebutt says, and the far-ranging version could come a little later as an option."

Note: that article is from 12/16/16 when that author (from dailykanban) and others (InsideEvs, PushEv, autobloggreen) were expecting Leaf 2.0 to introduced at CES on January 5th, 2017 or in Detroit on January 10th, 2017.

But... Nissan delayed the announcement and launch until September. Could that delay have been to allow time for the 60kWh battery to be available at launch? Or to complete testing on a new chemistry for a 42kWh battery? (It's also possible that the delay was to allow for additional ProPilot testing... or for an unrelated issue).

Either way, it wasn't definitive info because it is sourced as "scuttlebut" and because the Leaf 2.0 didn't make an appearance "in a few weeks".
2011 Brilliant Silver SL - 101,000 gasoline free miles so far.
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:28 pm

They may not have been able to test the final version of the 60KWH pack in Summer heat, and they want to do that before putting it into production.
Last edited by LeftieBiker on Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium Package and no QC, and 2009 Vectrix VX-1 with 18 Leaf cells.

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ydnas7
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Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:37 pm

from nissan we have 3 historical facts

Nissan 88 roadmap had 2 EVs, one just before expiry of '88 one just after expiry of '88. These were taken as Nissan and Infiniti variants of the same concept, and both are Nissan '88 products.

from nissan japan we also had comment about their cell pack progression, initial 24kWh, +lizard 24kWh, ++improved cathode 30kWh, +++improved anode ???kWh, ++++new format and packaging 60kWh.

from Nissan corporate we had 60kWh packs publicly shown to everyone (stakeholders) while trying not to Osborne current sales.

and Infiniti seems to be back to not having its own EV again


not a fact, but an observation, project delays are cumulative, project accelerations are imaginary.

BMW i3 range increase did not match cell size increase, perhaps the same might happen with Nissan.
Renault range increase and Renault availability was almost immediate, (though there was still rollout, I think renault Zoe 400 deliveries started before GM Bolt deliveries)

My expectation is that Sept reveal will be a global 60kWh LEAF, and some 3?-4? kWh LEAF classic regional reveal. These may even be 2 separate vehicle platforms, but share similar looks and name. The Japanese car manufacturers do weird things like that, particularly in the compact hatch class that LEAF belongs to.

Due to aero and motor power/efficiency, I still expect 60kWh LEAF to have greater range than GM Bolt, but less acceleration

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Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:33 pm

My expectation is that Sept reveal will be a global 60kWh LEAF, and some 3?-4? kWh LEAF classic regional reveal. These may even be 2 separate vehicle platforms, but share similar looks and name.


They might offer a "classic Leaf" if the Leaf 2? has a 60kwh pack, but why bother with two versions if the "new" Leaf is just a facelifted Leaf 1 with more energy density and different nose and tail? It would make more sense to just offer the 30kwh pack in the S and go with whatever larger pack they have in the SV and SL. It appears they want to cut tooling and production costs by using the same midsection, so the above would be the economical choice.
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The most offensive, tasteless phrase in use here is "Pulled the trigger." I no longer respond to posts that use it.

phr00t
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Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:00 am

ydnas7 wrote:from Nissan corporate we had 60kWh packs publicly shown to everyone (stakeholders) while trying not to Osborne current sales.

My expectation is that Sept reveal will be a global 60kWh LEAF, and some 3?-4? kWh LEAF classic regional reveal. These may even be 2 separate vehicle platforms, but share similar looks and name. The Japanese car manufacturers do weird things like that, particularly in the compact hatch class that LEAF belongs to.

Due to aero and motor power/efficiency, I still expect 60kWh LEAF to have greater range than GM Bolt, but less acceleration


All of those 60kWh roadmaps & concepts were before Nissan said "We can do 200 or 300. We Can. Question is Cost." They are also before the Forbes article stated "Nissan’s long-awaited second generation of its battery-electric Leaf could make a public appearance as early as in a few weeks. However, the car’s range could initially be a little less than the expected 400 kilometers (250 miles) per the optimistic Japanese standard.", linked in my last post.

You can't overlook that newer information, which points away from a 60kWh reveal.

However, @jhm614 did point out the delay might be trying to get back on track with a bigger battery. Or maybe not. We don't know. The most recent information doesn't look good, though. Let's hope they still surprise us.

GetOffYourGas
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Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:21 am

TL;DR: It is my opinion that Forbes' opinion carries less weight and not more than the other sources, particularly straight from Nissan.

Is there a reason that you are holding the Forbes article in higher esteem than Nissan's statements, other than the fact that it is more recent? These new outlets thrive on speculation in the EV industry. A lot of times they are just trying to show a different angle in order to win more "clicks" (which in turn becomes more advertising revenue). I see nothing of significance in the article you linked. There are all sorts of battery technologies right now. Nissan's is different from Tesla's is different from Chevy's is different from Ford's. In fact, Ford seems to use different batteries in their PHEVs and their BEV. Which makes sense, given the different requirements.
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phr00t
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Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:39 am

GetOffYourGas wrote:TL;DR: It is my opinion that Forbes' opinion carries less weight and not more than the other sources, particularly straight from Nissan.

Is there a reason that you are holding the Forbes article in higher esteem than Nissan's statements, other than the fact that it is more recent? These new outlets thrive on speculation in the EV industry. A lot of times they are just trying to show a different angle in order to win more "clicks" (which in turn becomes more advertising revenue). I see nothing of significance in the article you linked. There are all sorts of battery technologies right now. Nissan's is different from Tesla's is different from Chevy's is different from Ford's. In fact, Ford seems to use different batteries in their PHEVs and their BEV. Which makes sense, given the different requirements.


If you want both recent & from Nissan, that statement is "We can get to 200 or even 300 miles. We Can. The question is cost.", from http://www.automobilemag.com/news/new-n ... years-end/

That quote does not sound promising to having a 200+ mile option, at least an affordable & readily available one. Everyone knows Nissan can do it & it has been on their roadmap for years (as you all continue to point out)... but will they in this upcoming reveal? They already gave themselves an out: not economical.

The Forbes article is recent & mirrors the same sentiment: early expectations on the next Leaf's range may be set too high. You can take it with less weight if you want, but it doesn't change the picture much.

GetOffYourGas
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Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Wed Mar 29, 2017 11:23 am

phr00t wrote:If you want both recent & from Nissan, that statement is "We can get to 200 or even 300 miles. We Can. The question is cost.", from http://www.automobilemag.com/news/new-n ... years-end/


Ok, let's talk about this quote specifically. Combine it with the fact that they will not reveal the Leaf 2 at CES or NAIAS. Many inside the industry expected them to. It seems to me that Nissan is waiting until they can produce something truly competitive with the Bolt. That might have caused a 9-month delay. When speaking about batteries and range, it is all about cost. We have known this. Tesla proved it years ago. Yes, they were building a 200+ mile BEV 10 years ago. Its price tag was 6 digits, and may or may not have been profitable. Nissan has been pressuring AESC to bring their costs down in line with LG Chem's. Maybe AESC figured out how, but needed more time. Or maybe they couldn't do it and Nissan needed some time to design for LG Chem's battery.

Of course, the flip side is that Nissan has stopped talking so much about range. They are now talking about ProPilot. It could be that they will not meet the range of the Bolt, and are hoping for ProPilot to give them the edge. The delay could just as well be in perfecting their software.

The bottom line for me is that I'm done making predictions. I'm just trying to piece together the evidence, and weight each bit accordingly. It's a fun game, but I have very little to lose. I own my Leaf and it works for me. I can upgrade whenever the right car comes along, but am in no immediate need (e.g. due to an expiring lease). Moreover, I test drove the Bolt and really liked it. So if Nissan does not deliver and Tesla stumbles or fails, I know there is a BEV on the market that will work for me.
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phr00t
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Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Wed Mar 29, 2017 11:48 am

GetOffYourGas wrote:
phr00t wrote:If you want both recent & from Nissan, that statement is "We can get to 200 or even 300 miles. We Can. The question is cost.", from http://www.automobilemag.com/news/new-n ... years-end/


Ok, let's talk about this quote specifically. Combine it with the fact that they will not reveal the Leaf 2 at CES or NAIAS. Many inside the industry expected them to. It seems to me that Nissan is waiting until they can produce something truly competitive with the Bolt. That might have caused a 9-month delay. When speaking about batteries and range, it is all about cost. We have known this. Tesla proved it years ago. Yes, they were building a 200+ mile BEV 10 years ago. Its price tag was 6 digits, and may or may not have been profitable. Nissan has been pressuring AESC to bring their costs down in line with LG Chem's. Maybe AESC figured out how, but needed more time. Or maybe they couldn't do it and Nissan needed some time to design for LG Chem's battery.

Of course, the flip side is that Nissan has stopped talking so much about range. They are now talking about ProPilot. It could be that they will not meet the range of the Bolt, and are hoping for ProPilot to give them the edge. The delay could just as well be in perfecting their software.

The bottom line for me is that I'm done making predictions. I'm just trying to piece together the evidence, and weight each bit accordingly. It's a fun game, but I have very little to lose. I own my Leaf and it works for me. I can upgrade whenever the right car comes along, but am in no immediate need (e.g. due to an expiring lease). Moreover, I test drove the Bolt and really liked it. So if Nissan does not deliver and Tesla stumbles or fails, I know there is a BEV on the market that will work for me.


In agreement with everything here. The tricky thing is, the Bolt is a new model lineup altogether, so they had the freedom to price it however they wanted. The Nissan Leaf has a long history of starting around $30k, so if a big battery doesn't allow them to hit near that mark, they are less likely to use it. A larger, more expensive battery option is probably what they are going to use, but who knows if it will be immediately available & how much it will cost.

I'm personally looking for a ~140 mile range car. The Bolt sits in a funny position for me, since the battery is big -- but not really big enough to be roadtrip worthy (not to mention its very small cargo space for said roadtrips). So, I'd rather save some money & await even bigger batteries (or better charging infrastructure). The Hyundai Ioniq is a tempting offering, but the range is on the low end (especially after a few years of degradation). The Nissan Leaf might fit the bill, which is why it is fun to crunch the little data we have on it.

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Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:41 am

rmay635703 wrote:If Nissan streamlined the leaf it could easily go 200 miles EPA but on a 48kwhr battery and priced below the fictional 3 and Bolt

The Tesla Model 3 is announced, unmasked test/beta vehicles have been seen on the road, and real production information has been made available. It may end up being later than the end of this year, but it's certainly not fictional.

The Leaf Gen 2, however...
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