GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1390
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Wed May 10, 2017 6:08 am

Nobody outside the industry truly knows what the cost of batteries are. Nissan charges $5500 for a battery replacement, but that includes reclaiming the old battery. We don't know how much money they save by recycling the battery (versus buying virgin materials).

It seems like the going estimate is on the order of $200/kWh for cells, although that number is going down every year. But then you have to add the manufacturing cost to combine those cells into a battery. So the Leaf's 30kWh battery would cost $6k for just the cells. And then some for assembly.

Although everyone talks only about the battery, there are other unique EV-related parts. The motor, inverter, charger, battery controller, etc. All of these operate at high power and are not trivial costs in small quantity. And let's face it - compared to ICEVs, BEVs are small quantity.

As far as cost to the consumer, you have to look past initial purchase price and consider total cost of ownership (TCO). EVs are far cheaper to fuel and maintain (assuming you don't have to replace the battery). Here is one comparison of a Leaf against a (much cheaper to buy) Versa Note:

https://greentransportation.info/ev-ownership/economics/index.html
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)

tattoogunman
Posts: 91
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:17 pm
Delivery Date: 08 Jun 2016
Location: Plano, Texas

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Wed May 10, 2017 6:56 am

GetOffYourGas wrote:Nobody outside the industry truly knows what the cost of batteries are. Nissan charges $5500 for a battery replacement, but that includes reclaiming the old battery. We don't know how much money they save by recycling the battery (versus buying virgin materials).

It seems like the going estimate is on the order of $200/kWh for cells, although that number is going down every year. But then you have to add the manufacturing cost to combine those cells into a battery. So the Leaf's 30kWh battery would cost $6k for just the cells. And then some for assembly.

Although everyone talks only about the battery, there are other unique EV-related parts. The motor, inverter, charger, battery controller, etc. All of these operate at high power and are not trivial costs in small quantity. And let's face it - compared to ICEVs, BEVs are small quantity.

As far as cost to the consumer, you have to look past initial purchase price and consider total cost of ownership (TCO). EVs are far cheaper to fuel and maintain (assuming you don't have to replace the battery). Here is one comparison of a Leaf against a (much cheaper to buy) Versa Note:

https://greentransportation.info/ev-ownership/economics/index.html


I've thought about some of that, but my current car (Fiat 500) costs me very little to operate as it is. I do my own work on it and because of the little driving I do, I'm only averaging an oil change about once every 9 months and I only need gas about once every three weeks. With the exception of oil changes, the only other maintenance I have had to do was change the plugs and that was like $10 and I've owned the car for nearly four years. ICE cars have gotten much better over the years with regards to maintenance, so I really think the anticipated costs are not really as bad as people want to make them out to be. Of course that also depends heavily on how much you drive, so don't get me wrong. I'm in a unique situation where every place I need to go right now is within maybe a 10 miles (round trip) from my house on any given day - hence why I've been looking at getting an EV. Again, it's just the exorbitant cost of the cars that is keeping me from realistically considering one short of a used one. I'm a little shy of used due to the battery pack issues, warranty, etc. and the potential high costs of having to do major electrical component repairs down the road.

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1390
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Wed May 10, 2017 7:38 am

The best economic case for an EV would be someone with a very predictable commute that uses nearly the full range of the car every day. EVs are cheaper to operate per mile, and that case would rack up the difference very quickly.

That said, frequent short trips are very hard on an ICE. My commute is about 2.25 miles each way. In the winter, my old ICE cars would not even be warmed up when I got to work. That's a lot of wear-and-tear that is saved by my EV. EVs don't need to warm up.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)

ydnas7
Posts: 585
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2011 8:57 am

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Wed May 10, 2017 4:42 pm

tattoogunman wrote:
ydnas7 wrote:there is alot we don't know, but what we do know is that the 30kWh pack and the 60kwh may share the same footprint, their profile is different, so they are for different generations of cars.

Personally, I'm predicting carbon A pillars for Japanese cars and other export market cars, but steel construction for USA made cars and unknown for UK made cars.
So now we have 5 main variants, obviously not all will be available simultaneously in any one market.

Nissan LEAF Select (38kWh) = 38/30x107 = 135 mile EPA range (old pack)
Nissan LEAF S (Stripper) (Smyrna) (40kWh) = 40/30 x107x1.07 = 142 mile EPA range (new pack, part filled)
Nissan LEAF SV (Smyrna) etc = 60/30 x 107x1.07= 229 mile EPA range (new pack, fully filled)
Nissan LEAF S (Stripper) (Japan) (40kWh) = 40/30 x107x1.15 = 164 mile EPA range (new pack, part filled)
Nissan LEAF SV (Japan) etc = 60/30 x 107x1.15 = 246 mile EPA range (new pack, fully filled)

actually, I only predict 2 available in any one market at a time, but that globally, initially all 5 will be available somewhere (simultaneously)
the least likely of these to exist is the 40kWh strippers, they may go the way of Tesla model S 40kWh ....


What does it mean when it says "new pack, part filled"?? This isn't similar to what Tesla has been doing where they give you the car and if you want the "full" capacity out of the pack they charge you more money or something is it?


I'm predicting 2 physical packs with a different profile,
1st, current pack profile
2nd, larger pack profile
although the area (footprint) of the packs are the same, the heights are different, the metal floorpan in the car is different (and incompatible) between the 2 packs. This is the key safety and structural piece of metal in a modern car, it affects all the other metal pieces hanging off it, and all the seating attached on it, massively important for crash test etc. Think of it as the foundation of a car.

the current pack profile is due for the final iteration of 1st gen cells.
1st gen cells
initial 24kWh
'lizard' 24 kWh (new electrolyte)
30 kWh (new cathode - NMC)
37ish kWH (new anode) (about 1.55x original 24kWh)
keep in mind, other changes like thickness also occur with each stage
2nd gen cells
60kWh same cathode/anode/electrolyte as final1st gen cells, just different dimensions/packing

initially per kWh, the 1st gen will be significantly cheaper than the 2nd gen. but over time the 2nd gen should get cheaper. It makes sense to keep 1st gen going until 2nd gen gets cheaper. But second gen won't get cheaper until it has existed for some time.
So like Tesla, Nissan may part fill its packs when 2nd gen is cheap enough, Tesla packs 75/90 have different Voltages, Tesla 90/100 has different amps. I would expect Nissan to follow the different amps but at 40kWh/60kWh. Conceptually they could just omit some cells and get different Voltages like Tesla/Mitsubishi

NavyCuda
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:14 pm
Delivery Date: 24 Jun 2015
Leaf Number: 329051

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu May 11, 2017 10:44 am

I'm at 59,500km on my 2015 Leaf. It seems there is a battery break in as I'm getting more effective range from the Leaf this year.

I commute a minimum of 125km/day. The lower mainland of BC is spread out enough that if I had an effective 300km of range I would have no reason to drive our Frontier unless I needed to carry a load in the box.

48kWh is the bare minimum the Leaf 2.0 has to offer for me to consider taking a loss on my Leaf and getting out of it early.

tattoogunman
Posts: 91
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:17 pm
Delivery Date: 08 Jun 2016
Location: Plano, Texas

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu May 11, 2017 11:01 am

ydnas7 wrote:
tattoogunman wrote:
ydnas7 wrote:there is alot we don't know, but what we do know is that the 30kWh pack and the 60kwh may share the same footprint, their profile is different, so they are for different generations of cars.

Personally, I'm predicting carbon A pillars for Japanese cars and other export market cars, but steel construction for USA made cars and unknown for UK made cars.
So now we have 5 main variants, obviously not all will be available simultaneously in any one market.

Nissan LEAF Select (38kWh) = 38/30x107 = 135 mile EPA range (old pack)
Nissan LEAF S (Stripper) (Smyrna) (40kWh) = 40/30 x107x1.07 = 142 mile EPA range (new pack, part filled)
Nissan LEAF SV (Smyrna) etc = 60/30 x 107x1.07= 229 mile EPA range (new pack, fully filled)
Nissan LEAF S (Stripper) (Japan) (40kWh) = 40/30 x107x1.15 = 164 mile EPA range (new pack, part filled)
Nissan LEAF SV (Japan) etc = 60/30 x 107x1.15 = 246 mile EPA range (new pack, fully filled)

actually, I only predict 2 available in any one market at a time, but that globally, initially all 5 will be available somewhere (simultaneously)
the least likely of these to exist is the 40kWh strippers, they may go the way of Tesla model S 40kWh ....


What does it mean when it says "new pack, part filled"?? This isn't similar to what Tesla has been doing where they give you the car and if you want the "full" capacity out of the pack they charge you more money or something is it?


I'm predicting 2 physical packs with a different profile,
1st, current pack profile
2nd, larger pack profile
although the area (footprint) of the packs are the same, the heights are different, the metal floorpan in the car is different (and incompatible) between the 2 packs. This is the key safety and structural piece of metal in a modern car, it affects all the other metal pieces hanging off it, and all the seating attached on it, massively important for crash test etc. Think of it as the foundation of a car.

the current pack profile is due for the final iteration of 1st gen cells.
1st gen cells
initial 24kWh
'lizard' 24 kWh (new electrolyte)
30 kWh (new cathode - NMC)
37ish kWH (new anode) (about 1.55x original 24kWh)
keep in mind, other changes like thickness also occur with each stage
2nd gen cells
60kWh same cathode/anode/electrolyte as final1st gen cells, just different dimensions/packing

initially per kWh, the 1st gen will be significantly cheaper than the 2nd gen. but over time the 2nd gen should get cheaper. It makes sense to keep 1st gen going until 2nd gen gets cheaper. But second gen won't get cheaper until it has existed for some time.
So like Tesla, Nissan may part fill its packs when 2nd gen is cheap enough, Tesla packs 75/90 have different Voltages, Tesla 90/100 has different amps. I would expect Nissan to follow the different amps but at 40kWh/60kWh. Conceptually they could just omit some cells and get different Voltages like Tesla/Mitsubishi


Ah OK, that makes sense. I sort of wish they would do what they do in some foreign markets and simply allow people to lease the packs. So for example, you could buy/lease the base model car, but then have the larger battery pack fitted to save money if you didn't want all of the bells and whistles of the higher end models.

NeilBlanchard
Posts: 516
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 5:02 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Oct 2014
Leaf Number: 306278

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu May 11, 2017 11:20 am

Nissan has already shown a 60kWh pack that is very similar physical size to their current 24/30kWh packs.

Image

Here's the 60kWh:

Image

Here's the 24kWh pack (2013):

Image

Firetruck41
Posts: 482
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:36 am
Leaf Number: 408264
Location: SW Washington State

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu May 11, 2017 4:44 pm

If it doesn't have 200 miles range, it will be DOA for mainstream buyers. In that case, it will remain a "budget" option for current EV enthusiasts.
The fact that the majority of mainstream buyers only need a 100 mile range (or whatever number you want to inject) doesn't matter one bit. What matters is what they think they need, and they probably all overestimate that number. Since I got my Leaf, I have had friends say they could never own an electric car unless it had 150, or 200, or 250 miles, they don't really need that much, but they think they do. I would pay a premium for 200 miles range (vs 120-140 mile range), as I could get rid of an ICE that we need for regional travel.
8/2015- New to me 12bar 2013 SV w/QC package and 37k miles

NavyCuda
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:14 pm
Delivery Date: 24 Jun 2015
Leaf Number: 329051

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu May 11, 2017 9:45 pm

I think 300km of effective range is important for Canadian consumers. We have sprawling cities and urban centers surrounded by vast rural and agricultural areas. My 2015 Leaf has an effective driving range of 100km winter and 140 summer. I live 62km from work. The nearest home depot and back is almost a full charge. I often cannot use the Leaf for weekend running around, when there are multiple stops. I want to be able to use the leaf for more, which means a driving radius of 150km, or a 300km loop without charging.

webeleafowners
Posts: 277
Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2015 5:37 pm
Delivery Date: 06 Oct 2015
Location: Okanagan Valley British Columbia

Re: Predicting Range & Value of LEAF Gen 2

Thu May 11, 2017 10:00 pm

NavyCuda wrote:I think 300km of effective range is important for Canadian consumers. We have sprawling cities and urban centers surrounded by vast rural and agricultural areas. My 2015 Leaf has an effective driving range of 100km winter and 140 summer. I live 62km from work. The nearest home depot and back is almost a full charge. I often cannot use the Leaf for weekend running around, when there are multiple stops. I want to be able to use the leaf for more, which means a driving radius of 150km, or a 300km loop without charging.


I agree. 300 KM is probably the magic number for the masses in Canada. We seem to get around 200KM with our 2016 SV in the kind of driving we do (70/30 city/highway) but if we did more highway we would see less range I'm sure. We don't need to go bigger but many people we talk to seem to think they will need 300 km of range. We have a good DCFC network in our province and it is set to double in the next couple years so more range is not a big thing for us. Still, we are set to upgrade in about 4 or 5 years. I'm sure 300 will be standard by them
2015 Smart Electric Drive convertible.
2016 Nissan Leaf SV 30KW
EV only Family...well except for the big diesel motorhome. :shock:

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