EatsShootsandLeafs
Posts: 428
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Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:25 am

lorenfb wrote:
powersurge wrote:First, I do not think that the Tesla 3 will ever be produced... The company could not afford to produce it.


Not many profitably at less than $50K, and profitability even at that price is questionable! The company already
continually loses money selling both the MS & MX at over $90K. The M3 will cannibalize sales of the MS and
increase Tesla losses. Tesla's cost structure is much greater than GM's with the Bolt, with battery costs not that
different. So with the Bolt selling near break-even at around $35K, the M3 will be a loss-leader for Tesla.
You may be right.

You should grant the possibility that those leading the company who are intimately familiar with its costs and projections and the car market and hold a different view may also be right.

For the consumer this is not necessarily bad. I love buying things when the company is losing money on them.

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jlv
Posts: 534
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Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2014
Leaf Number: 424487
Location: Massachusetts

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:30 am

powersurge wrote:First, I do not think that the Tesla 3 will ever be produced...
Please continue to ignore the pages and pages of pictures of production 3s. :?
'13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17)Tesla S 75D (3/17)
Model 3 reservation
(Probably no LEAF2 for me)

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jlv
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Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2014
Leaf Number: 424487
Location: Massachusetts

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:34 am

SageBrush wrote:The $36k Model 3 is not an if. Reserve today to get in line for delivery in 12-18 months by current projections.
Surely someone will bring up the original S with 40kWh battery (which was never produced) to refute that statement. However, I think that isn't likely to happen with the number of 3 reservations... unless most people opt for the bigger battery.
'13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17)Tesla S 75D (3/17)
Model 3 reservation
(Probably no LEAF2 for me)

SageBrush
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Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:03 am

jlv wrote:
SageBrush wrote:The $36k Model 3 is not an if. Reserve today to get in line for delivery in 12-18 months by current projections.
Surely someone will bring up the original S with 40kWh battery (which was never produced) to refute that statement. However, I think that isn't likely to happen with the number of 3 reservations... unless most people opt for the bigger battery.


The 40 kWh Model S was produced, and delivered. Due to very low demand it was discontinued.
In any case though, the SR battery of the Model 3 is a different animal entirely. I'd put the chance of Tesla canceling its production before any deliveries at zero (barring some natural catastrophe.)
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

GetOffYourGas
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Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:25 am

SageBrush wrote:The 40 kWh Model S was produced, and delivered. Due to very low demand it was discontinued.


Not entirely accurate. The "40kWh Model S" that was delivered was actually a software-limited 60kWh battery. Tesla only sold it to the few people that had a chance to reserve one prior to its cancellation. So Tesla never really even designed a 40kWh battery for the Model S. Right or wrong, they decided not to put forth the time and money for what was perceived to be in low demand.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

webb14leafs
Posts: 133
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:43 am
Delivery Date: 27 Mar 2017

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:27 am

I don't know how much the LEAF2 will sell for, but msrp seems likely for now.


How can you say "likely"? When was the last time a Leaf sold for MSRP? It's likely that within a couple months of release Nissan will offer a variety of rebates just like it currently does.

GetOffYourGas
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Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:32 am

webb14leafs wrote:
I don't know how much the LEAF2 will sell for, but msrp seems likely for now.


How can you say "likely"? When was the last time a Leaf sold for MSRP? It's likely that within a couple months of release Nissan will offer a variety of rebates just like it currently does.


I think you're both right. For the first few months, the Leaf will likely sell for MSRP. Recent Leafs don't sell for that, but they have a dated body style with date technology and a dated battery. That has all been updated for 2018. When demand inevitably starts to soften, Nissan will offer rebates as they see fit.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

SageBrush
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Location: Colorado

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:39 am

GetOffYourGas wrote:
SageBrush wrote:The 40 kWh Model S was produced, and delivered. Due to very low demand it was discontinued.


Not entirely accurate. The "40kWh Model S" that was delivered was actually a software-limited 60kWh battery.
This is correct, the 40 kWh model was a 60 kWh battery that was software limited. Tesla did the same more recently with a 60 kwh model that was actually a software limited 75 kWh battery. Its too bad that I did not want a Model S or I would have jumped at the opportunity -- the most perfect 60 kWh model EVER :-)

By the way, just about all car batteries are marketed below their nominal capacity and software delimited. Usually for longevity, to avoid bricking, and sometimes for marketing reasons <<shrug>>
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

Joe6pack
Posts: 70
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2012 4:57 pm
Delivery Date: 07 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 025854

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:04 pm

Put me in the camp of those who believe that the LEAF will be offered with discounts right off the bat - probably a $199 or $229 per month lease. I don't think Nissan produces cars to be sold at MSRP.

And, if the 40 kWh Model S was really a limited 60 kWh, then no, Tesla never intended to sell a 40 kWh Model S. As for the SR Model 3, I think they will do everything in their power not to produce it unless they can load it up with options to drive up the price. If GM can't produce a $35,000 60 kWh Bolt, then Tesla has no hope of producing a profitable $35,000 60kWh Model 3. The Model 3 may ultimately be a fine car, but there is no way Tesla can undercut GM or Nissan on price.
2012 Leaf SL leased October 4th, 2012
Braselton, GA

webb14leafs
Posts: 133
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:43 am
Delivery Date: 27 Mar 2017

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:10 pm

Joe6pack wrote:Put me in the camp of those who believe that the LEAF will be offered with discounts right off the bat - probably a $199 or $229 per month lease. I don't think Nissan produces cars to be sold at MSRP.

And, if the 40 kWh Model S was really a limited 60 kWh, then no, Tesla never intended to sell a 40 kWh Model S. As for the SR Model 3, I think they will do everything in their power not to produce it unless they can load it up with options to drive up the price. If GM can't produce a $35,000 60 kWh Bolt, then Tesla has no hope of producing a profitable $35,000 60kWh Model 3. The Model 3 may ultimately be a fine car, but there is no way Tesla can undercut GM or Nissan on price.


I agree and disagree. GM can't make a $35K Bolt because they can't sell a $50K Bolt. There are apparently hundreds of thousands of people that want to spend $45K or more to buy a Model 3. They are essentially subsidizing the base model. What other model of car can have such a huge price delta between the base model and the premium model?

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