dm33
Posts: 679
Joined: Sat May 18, 2013 4:43 am
Delivery Date: 31 May 2013
Location: Raleigh, NC

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:43 am

SageBrush wrote: The early teething problems are minor and will be gone by the time Tesla cars are built for anyman outside CA. It was a smart move to place the early production in CA with employees and early adopters. They are near Service centers and do not mind a visit post purchase to iron out any wrinkles.

The Model 3 has already been delivered outside CA but to employees that I know of.
Women buy Model 3's as well...

lorenfb
Posts: 1492
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:53 am

SageBrush wrote:An Osborne effect is far from obvious.


Yes, for some!

SageBrush
Posts: 1720
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:21 am

lorenfb wrote:
SageBrush wrote:An Osborne effect is far from obvious.


Yes, for some!


yawn
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

tattoogunman
Posts: 137
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:17 pm
Delivery Date: 08 Jun 2016
Location: Plano, Texas

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:54 pm

Why a 2nd gen Leaf and not the Model 3:

Leaf will be cheaper because how many people actually pay sticker? Sure, if you're buying from Tesla you don't have a choice, but you do with other brands. A "base" Model 3, in reality, is going to cost more than $35,000 once you factor in their delivery charges ($1000) and if you opt for a different color. You can get a Leaf cheaper than that and while it may not look as fancy, may not be as fast, and it doesn't have the fanatical fan base that Tesla has, you can still have your EV at a lower price.

I was watching an interview with some Nissan engineers and they said that they have millions of miles worth of drive data from the first gen Leaf and made the gen 2 accordingly. Another words, the increased range, while less than the Tesla, is still more than enough for the average person's day to day driving which was the goal. How many people do road tips across the country often enough that 150 miles is not enough range?

Availability - you'll be able to buy your Leaf before you'll be able to get a Model 3 unless your one of the original chosen few.

Ultimately it's going to come down to personal choice and how long someone is willing to wait for their car.

SageBrush
Posts: 1720
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:09 pm

tattoogunman wrote: You can get a Leaf cheaper than that and while it may not look as fancy, may not be as fast, and it doesn't have the fanatical fan base that Tesla has, you can still have your EV at a lower price.

You forgot to mention two additional important aspects:

The Model 3 has a 220 mile range Vs the ~ 140 miles of the LEAF 2;
Tesla has an outstanding record when it comes to battery longevity, while the LEAF's is just plain awful.

In 8 years I fully expect to still have 200+ mile range in a Model 3.
What do you expect the LEAF2 range to be ? For that matter, what range can you be confident in after 2-3 years ?
How much cheaper does the LEAF2 have to be for you to make up that difference ?

Here is another way to think about the money question: Say you doubt the quality of the LEAF battery and lease the base car for ~ $4000 a year. In ~ 9 years you will have nothing and I will have a 9 year old Model 3 free and clear.
Last edited by SageBrush on Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:23 pm, edited 3 times in total.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

internalaudit
Posts: 76
Joined: Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:34 am
Delivery Date: 09 Aug 2032

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:11 pm

Evoforce wrote:
internalaudit wrote:
Evoforce wrote:
You are listening to the worst of the worst. Tesla has been excellent on doing service for me and countless others and maintains a high customer service rating. While I agree nothing is perfect, Tesla has pulled through for me with flying colors. Many things that they could charge for, they have repaired as goodwill. I do agree with you on the right to repair and Tesla needs to open this up to all.

I personally own two Leaf SL's and a Tesla S, and my son a Chevy Bolt LT that he traded his Leaf to get. I would personally not buy another Leaf until they improve their battery longevity. A thermal management system would probably help a lot but a 2018 Leaf does not have that. Will a 2019 Leaf have a better battery and TMS system? We will see... The Leaf is a great car in every other way, except battery longevity and rapid depreciation because of it.


They can afford to offer excellent customer service (aka bleed money) to 100k customers but not sure at 400-500k customers.

Margins are fatter on the S and X and if I was EM, I would definitely not screw these customers over. But there's only so much the car company can do once multiples of the current cars are on the road and quality is still a crapshoot.

At the end of the day, it's nice to drive a BEV but if repair costs post-warranty or ESA will be a big issue (and I think it can), I'd rather wait for the tried and true Toyota BEVs. How much longer do I have to wait, five years at the most, spending $10-15k CAD in gasoline over those years? That's not such a bad proposition because most BEVs will have depreciated more than that over the five years.

It makes sense for people who need a new car to get a BEV but for those with decently reliable ICEV like me, we might as well play the waiting game and hopefully the 2019 Leaf will have TMS.


Again though, you are taking the worst of the worst to heart. The majority of Tesla owners are very happy. I believe that most reputable companies will strive to keep their customers happy. Taking a stance that a lessor priced car owner won't or can't get the same good service is a negative that may play well to justify your choices, but probably will have little to to with reality.

To me, your choice of ICEV actually reflects a underlying pessimism towards BEV in the first place. You may have valid reasons that fit for you, but I personally would not have an ICEV, as I view it as somewhat of a crutch or the inability to be "all in" so to speak for whatever reason. My opinion is that Toyota really doesn't want to be "all in" either. They seem to like the government money to dabble with the fuel cell technology. But with my having those opinions, I am still glad that people have the choice of ICEV to help them transition to full BEV in the future and to help some with the air quality now. I also understand that it seems prudent to continue to use your perfectly good ICEV a little more into the future to give yourself more future choices in getting your BEV.


I'm not taking the worst of the worst. There really is no Right to Repair which will make ownership post-warranty/ESA expensive. That is reality and has very little to do with the majority of Tesla owners being very happy because their vehicles are probably still under warranty or under the ESA or because many of them choose to lease or dump their cars before the warranty expires. Although we are making a decent living way above the median household income, I have no intention of tossing my cars after 3-4 years of service because that's a lot of depreciation / money being thrown away. I have perused the Model S subforum on TMC and I've come across owners complaining and although they may be the minority, it doesn't mean there aren't real reliability issues with the vehicles.

If Tesla really wants its customers to be happy post warranty/ESA, then why not open the Right to Repair instead of just talk about it in Feb/March 2017? If it really wants its customers happy, they better strive to improve efficiency (maybe with additional M3 volume???) so its revenue neutral service center repair jobs doesn't cost a lot more than a Honda or Toyota repair job? Once Tesla does that, it will assuage would be buyers like myself that I'm setting myself up for a minor financial disaster once ESA is up -- expensive repair jobs on the M3 or very low resale value as a result of the needed repairs?

We've got to be kidding ourselves if we think Tesla builds really reliable vehicles. Even someone on a Canadian forum admitted his DU on his CPO S had to be replaced and a few other things.

In my case I have ICEV that are currently quite reliable but I'm just fortunate that I'm at the juncture where I may need a third car to replace my faithful and reliable 02 Civic because our eldest child will be going to university next year. We won't know until May which program she will be getting into (which city and how far away) so keeping our three ICEVs is the most sensible thing to do. I have the luxury of waiting because I'm not the type who would sell a perfectly fine ICEV just to get on the BEV bandwagon because my wife does need to drive 130 miles round trip almost every week so for now there are no BEV that allow for that travel in the winter except for the expensive Tesla's and the Chevy Bolt, which I have no interest in. I mean, what's the point of me getting a BEV where my wife can't make it back home during winter, which is between three to five months here in Toronto? The ICEVs I have besides the RAV4 Hybrid have depreciated so much that they aren't costing me much besides the regular maintenance, which for some I already DIY.

I don't disdain a person just because he/she drives a vehicle with tailpipe emissions. I disdain self-centered people who are toxic to their colleagues (back stabbing, taking credits, giving unjustified poor performance evaluations to direct reports, etc.) whether they drive a ICEV, BEV or walk to work.

Heck, if I really need another vehicle, maybe I'll consider the 2019 Honda Insight if it gets better than 60 MPG. To me everything is financially driven based on cost of ownership. Our government can force cleaner air by making truck and bus operators run cleaner instead of belching smog at every step of the gas pedal and make sure VW doesn't make a better/subtler defeat device because I'm sure they can. Takes them one or two years to find a solution without ammonia. :) They must really have geniuses at their engineering department.

tattoogunman
Posts: 137
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:17 pm
Delivery Date: 08 Jun 2016
Location: Plano, Texas

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:38 pm

SageBrush wrote:
tattoogunman wrote: You can get a Leaf cheaper than that and while it may not look as fancy, may not be as fast, and it doesn't have the fanatical fan base that Tesla has, you can still have your EV at a lower price.

You forgot to mention two additional important aspects:

The Model 3 has a 220 mile range Vs the ~ 140 miles of the LEAF 2;
Tesla has an outstanding record when it comes to battery longevity, while the LEAF's is just plain awful.

In 8 years I fully expect to still have 200+ mile range in a Model 3.
What do you expect the LEAF2 range to be ? For that matter, what range can you be confident in after 2-3 years ?
How much cheaper does the LEAF2 have to be for you to make up that difference ?

Here is another way to think about the money question: Say you doubt the quality of the LEAF battery and lease the base car for ~ $4000 a year. In ~ 9 years you will have nothing and I will have a 9 year old Model 3 free and clear.


I mentioned the range and that's subjective on the individual. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have 200+ myself, but the reality is that 150 is more than enough for most people's day to day driving (so is the first gen Leaf for that matter). Especially if the initial cost of the vehicle is lower - if I can get a new Leaf for $5000 or less than a Model 3 (that won't even be available to someone like me for probably another year or two), that money savings can negate a 70 mile loss. Their engineers said they did the range the way they did on purpose and it was because they knew it would exceed the needs of their customer base (established from the millions of miles of driver data they have) and keep the car at a decent price point. But as I said, I too would rather have increased range and that's supposed to be available next year on the 2019 model.

Leaf's battery problems are obviously an issue due to their track record, but *supposedly* the new one is going to be better. Obviously time will tell on that one, but that's absolutely a valid point.

If you buy the car over a lease, obviously you would have a paid off car over someone doing a lease. All I'm saying is that I think a good majority of people getting EVs are doing leases due to a variety of reasons, battery concerns probably being chief among them and that's not specific to Nissan. Not everyone obviously and it's subjective on what the person wants. Most of the people I talk to with a Tesla have leased them as well if, for no other reason, to be able to get the next newest and greatest model a few years down the road. But again, if someone is able to walk away with a new Leaf for under $35K (before incentives), that's a factor as well (like when certain power companies were recently offering $10K rebates towards the car, etc.).

At the end of the day, it's purely subjective on the person. Me personally? I cannot afford a new Leaf or a Tesla. Assuming I could afford either one of them, could actually get it tomorrow, and I was confident that both of them were going to be rock solid reliable (which I'm already reading reports of problems with the Model 3), I'd opt for the Tesla simply because it looks better. In my case and given my financial situation, I'm purely in the used car market and quite frankly, my current plan is to pick up a used Bolt in a few years :) I'm still kicking around the idea of a first gen Leaf because of how stupid cheap they are, but I'm hesitant due to the aforementioned issues.

SageBrush
Posts: 1720
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:21 pm

tattoogunman wrote:How many people do road tips across the country often enough that 150 miles is not enough range?
Let me rephrase that for you ...

How far does a trip have to be in a 2-3 year old LEAF2 in the winter with bad roads and some headwind to have realistic range anxiety ?
I come up with ~ 80 miles. You ?

Personally, I want an EV that will completely substitute for an ICEV. Since my work commute is 90 miles, I live in a 4 season climate, and only Tesla has fast charging in my area, a LEAF is a non-starter. In fact, the ONLY EV that can do the job is a Tesla. My other reasonable alternative is actually a plug-in hybrid like I have now with my Prius Prime. It is a very good solution but not the EV only household I prefer.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

SageBrush
Posts: 1720
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:32 pm

tattoogunman wrote:if I can get a new Leaf for $5000 or less than a Model 3 (that won't even be available to someone like me for probably another year or two), that money savings can negate a 70 mile loss.

For you, sure.
But the LEAF history says you will be buying another car in 5-8 years, and then the $5k savings will turn out to be one lousy deal.

I try to not be penny wise and pound foolish. YMMV
And perhaps in 3 years or so, a $10k, 40 kWh LEAF that does not have a magically disappearing battery may be available off-lease. I'd still hesitate if I lived in TX, but it could be a good buy for cooler parts of the country.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

webb14leafs
Posts: 165
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:43 am
Delivery Date: 27 Mar 2017

Re: Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:50 am

SageBrush wrote:
tattoogunman wrote:if I can get a new Leaf for $5000 or less than a Model 3 (that won't even be available to someone like me for probably another year or two), that money savings can negate a 70 mile loss.

For you, sure.
But the LEAF history says you will be buying another car in 5-8 years, and then the $5k savings will turn out to be one lousy deal.

I try to not be penny wise and pound foolish. YMMV
And perhaps in 3 years or so, a $10k, 40 kWh LEAF that does not have a magically disappearing battery may be available off-lease. I'd still hesitate if I lived in TX, but it could be a good buy for cooler parts of the country.


Clearly this decision depends heavily on the individual's needs. If you need the top end of the range for the life of the car, the leaf is probably not going to satisfy you. If you're like 90% of the population and have a commute of less than 30 miles, then the Leaf will be great. Both cars are really perfect in their own way.

Dumb question - what is the battery cooling system for the model 3?? I'm sure it's covered somewhere on these threads, but I haven't seen it. Is it exactly the same as the S?

The tax incentive should be considered for any cost calculation as well. If you don't currently have a reservation you will not get the full credit on the Model 3. You SHOULD be able to get the full credit on the 2019 Leaf with the 60 kWhr battery. Lower Sticker Price + Deeper Dealer/Manufacturer discounts + Larger tax credit = more than enough for a new battery or two.

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