oleviking
Posts: 43
Joined: Fri Oct 14, 2016 6:35 am
Delivery Date: 21 Oct 2016
Leaf Number: 301969
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Wed Jul 25, 2018 3:09 pm

SageBrush, I have the upgrade, didn't really change anything for me, as the second battery was only weeks old. I'll be back on the board next year looking for more advise on buy or turn in. Can't remember what you said that long, LOL.

Thanks,

WetEV
Posts: 2369
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Wed Jul 25, 2018 6:31 pm

SageBrush wrote:
WetEV wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Imagine a LEAF with 6 - 12 months left on the battery degradation warranty, and Nissan with a choice whether to swap in a new pack or a 10 bar pack. What what you do, as the economics advisor to Nissan ?


Not to say it will not happen. It can't be common, as there isn't a large supply of 10 bar packs, as packs usually don't outlast the cars. Most pack replacements will need to be new.

The refurbs are made by picking out the "good" cells from failed packs.


Only problem is that there wouldn't be many "good" cells. Sure, would be some. But hey, don't let facts get in the way. Try to make sure that the Leaf fails for the Greater Glory of Tesla.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

SageBrush
Posts: 2909
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Wed Jul 25, 2018 6:39 pm

Is that the best you can do, arguing like a Trumper ?
You said 10 bar packs are rare because cars outlast packs;
Now you know that argument is specious.

As for the ratio of 10 bar packs to returned failed packs, all I can say is that it is enough for Nissan to invest in building a factory.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
Posts: 2369
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Thu Jul 26, 2018 5:18 am

SageBrush wrote:You said 10 bar packs are rare because cars outlast packs;


Your argument is specious Tesla Troll. Spread the FUD someplace else.

If packs lasted twice as long as cars, there would be an large number of used but still lots of life left packs available once the cars started to wear out.

As cars last longer than packs, and as most packs that are replaced seem to be fairly evenly worn out, then there will be few "10 bar" packs that can be assembled.

SageBrush wrote:As for the ratio of 10 bar packs to returned failed packs, all I can say is that it is enough for Nissan to invest in building a factory.


Or at least for Nissan to invest in a press release. Note that this "factory" was in Japan, there are not similar facilities elsewhere. And while it is "green" to reuse old but still useful cells, the point of the press release, the potential number of such isn't large.

Does anyone know of any not new warranty pack replacement? Can you buy even buy a replacement not new battery pack in the USA from Nissan? Or in Japan?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

SageBrush
Posts: 2909
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:13 am

WetEV wrote:Your argument is ...

Reasonable, but you are too invested in fan-boyism to see or admit it.

You have bored me, and worn out your welcome. Into the ignore list you go.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
Posts: 2369
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:34 am

SageBrush wrote:You have bored me, and worn out your welcome. Into the ignore list you go.


How special. I'm thrilled.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13328
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:41 am

Well, what do we know so far?

Well, the Tesla pack being 3X the cost "should" last 3X longer and it has but it would appear we are being swayed by a handful of overly publicized packs that have piled a lot of miles on. In those cases, QC use was extreme and the time to pile on the mileage was short.

BUT, we also have LEAFers who have done the same thing. We have a Uberite exceeding 120,000 miles on his LEAF and still has 11 bars. Granted, 11 bars is not 12 bars but he is running on a 24 kwh pack. So he has beat the clock by all measures. What is his secret?

Well, not much of a secret because like some of the well known 250,000 mile Teslas, he QCs several times a day and has piled on his mileage in a very short period of time.

Now we have my 2016. I didn't QC nearly to the degree these people did but did do so more than the average. I racked up nearly 30,000 miles in 14 months suffering little degradation (VERY little) that included a 116.2 mile trip on a single charge in January 7 days before her untimely demise. (Yeah, that Winter range degradation hit me hard!! :lol: )

I really think I could have had a monumental vehicle stat to brag about a few years from now but the accident made me realize that I was working towards a direction that was not in my best interest so within 2 months of getting my 2018, I changed jobs. So, no chance to see how well the 2018 would have stood up to the challenges my previous job presented although I will say for the 2 months, it was a pretty awesome improvement!

So as I reach 9,000 miles on my LEAF with 4X the degradation my 30,000 mile 2016 had, the initial results are interesting. I cannot jump to any conclusions right now simply because the degradation LEAF Spy has reported has not translated into reduced range. Now with so much range that I rarely need to access, I might simply be unaware of small loses so I have to say...

Stay tuned!!
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Evoforce
Posts: 832
Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2015 9:58 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Feb 2015
Location: Fountain Hills Arizona

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:07 pm

Depending on where you live, It appears Tesla packs can last 10x longer Nissan packs.
*2011 Leaf 1 bought 2/28/15 @ 28,000ish mi 10 bar (8 bars @ 11/25/15 @ 37,453 ) (New lizard @ 39,275 mi @ 1/20/2016) Now 52,166 mi.
*Tesla Model S 61,000 mi
*2011 Leaf 2 bought 4/28/15 @ 24,000ish mi 12 bar (new lizard Dec. 2014 @ 22,273 mi) Now 35,485 mi

SageBrush
Posts: 2909
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:04 pm

Evoforce wrote:Depending on where you live, It appears Tesla packs can last 10x longer Nissan packs.

10x is probably an outlier for both packs (in opposite directions) but 5x sounds about right for an average.

This is what makes the LEAF such a lousy value. Time will tell if I guessed right, but I bought my Tesla with an expectation of it lasting 15 - 20 years (in my hands or otherwise.) The LEAF is a 4 - 6 year car, or 8 years if considerable battery degradation is tolerated along the way.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13328
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Thu Jul 26, 2018 5:37 pm

Supposedly a study says a car is in "replacement" mode when it hits 150,000 miles. This seems rather plausible. I prefer to replace sooner if purchased new, others go much longer. This is where the stats become murky. I have had cars well beyond 150,000 miles mostly because they were bought used so expectations were simply created on a different scale, different criteria, etc.

But the reality is most people don't keep cars 15 years. The average time is closer to 7 years. In this day and age, a lot has to do with changing tech. I kept my truck for decades because it was bought for a purpose and continued to do that specific purpose. But cars are different. Its hard to spend $$$$ on something than hang on to it a long time because they get outdated quickly and that applies to EVs much more than the average car.

So the decision is buy it for $$$$$ and hold it until its worth $$$ and trade it in for the latest trinkets for a "little" money (is there such a thing?) or put up with it until its only worth $$ and basically sell it used (since the dealer might give you ¾$ if you are lucky) and restart the new car buying process from scratch.

So yeah, some people will buy their Tesla and drive it 20 years and still have 70% of their "way more than we needed" range left but they would not be the norm. Every day I see people who bought Teslas a few years ago or such (and yeah a LOT of them only did it to get their T3 sooner) only to trade up.

But I have always considered the degradation factor although I have been lucky in the past and this is the first LEAF that had enough range new that I could live with on 9 bars while torturously waiting for the anticipated #8 exodus. Granted, a much easier transpo need helps.

But then again, I could always switch to the Niro. ;)
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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