SageBrush
Posts: 2921
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:04 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:But the reality is most people don't keep cars 15 years.

That is irrelevant. The important point for value retention is how long the car is fit to be driven in close to the same manner as a new car. Depreciation is an imperfect measure of this metric.

As for me, I'll be delighted to keep my Model 3 for 20 years if possible. That would work out to be ~ $200 a month acquisition cost in today's money and line up well with my environmental priorities. One of the things I find disturbing in the LEAF is the thought that it may well be in a junkyard before it is 10 years old, even though I ask very little of it.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

Kieran973
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:51 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Jun 2018

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:05 pm

Call me crazy, but I think the 2018 Leaf can be a 15 year car, depending on what you mean by "car."

In my area, the 2018 can be picked up for under 20K. This is partly why I think the 2018, criminally crap battery that it is, has actually really good long-term value. Some interesting things to consider about the 2018:

1. It will never have less than 100 miles of range during its 8 year warranty.

2. If you drive economically, and are able to beat EPA ratings by an average 25% year-round, then you will never have less than 125 miles of range during its 8 year warranty.

3. Battery degradation is not linear, but if the battery degrades at an average annual rate of 5%, then it will degrade to 65% after 7 years, which would trigger a warranty replacement, which would conceivably mean getting a new battery that takes 7 more years to reach 65%, which means the car will always have at least 65% capacity (97.5 miles EPA; 121.9 miles "economic" driving) for 14 years.

4. Even at 40% capacity, the 2018 would still have 60 miles of range EPA, 75 miles of range "economic" driving. That's still considered very usable by 2015 Leaf standards. And I could be wrong about this, but I don't see the 2018 battery degrading to 40% in faster than 15 years, simply because the warranty replacement would interrupt the timeline. Even at 8% average annual degradation, warranty replacement would be triggered after a little more than 4 years, then 40% degradation would occur about 7.5 years later, so OK, let's say it takes 12 years total to get to 40%. This could happen. But I don't see the Leaf having 8% degradation consistently over its entire life - I could see it having rapid degradation in the first 3 years and then this degradation leveling off; or I could see the reverse, slow initial degradation followed by steeper end of life degradation. And even if it did have reliably 8% degradation every single year, a $19K car used over 12 years still seems to make a lot more sense than four separate 3 year, $12K leases ($48K total) over that same 12 year time period.

This could be naive, but my 15 year plan for the 2018 Leaf would be this:

For the first three years, use it as a commuter car (my work commute is 22 miles round trip), a weekend car (I drive 50 miles or so on weekends, spread out over 2 days), and a medium-range road trip car (roughly six 250 mile trips to visit family annually). After three years, I figure the battery degradation will be enough to make these 250 mile road trips annoying, so I would then rotate the Leaf into purely commuter/weekend mode, and stay in that mode for another 12 years. Three years from now, my wife's gas car (a CRV) will be a candidate for replacement, and my hope is that we could snag a low-mileage used Bolt, Tesla, Niro/Kona, Leaf E-Plus, etc. for around 15K. And then this used 200+ mile EV, with much more competent battery tech, would be the new long-range car in the family. Anyway, such is the dream.

LeftieBiker
Posts: 9834
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:35 pm

Then, at 15 years old, a planter?
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Kieran973
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:51 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Jun 2018

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:49 pm

I was actually thinking prison meal cart, for when "the people" rise up and put Carlos Ghosn in jail....

jonathanfields4ever
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:55 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Feb 2018
Location: Kyoto

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Fri Jul 27, 2018 6:18 am

WetEV wrote:
SageBrush wrote:You have bored me, and worn out your welcome. Into the ignore list you go.


How special. I'm thrilled.


Welcome to the club. That what SageBrush does when he runs out of arguments and can’t insult his way through the discussion.

jonathanfields4ever
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:55 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Feb 2018
Location: Kyoto

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Fri Jul 27, 2018 6:26 am

I like how the 2018 has a “criminally crap battery” after just 9 months of being out in the wild. It may turn out to be horrible, but we should see. The Model 3 isn’t available everywhere, and the $35K version is still nowhere in sight.

The 2018 has a more aggressive BMS than previous versions of the Leaf, and is rumored to be NMC rather than MnO. That should give it more cycles and make it less prone to forming scale and dendrites. Only time will tell. Personally, I believe I have lost about .6kWh (based on charge and percentage plotted to a graph that generates a trend line). I’ll roll over to 10,000 miles tomorrow.

SageBrush
Posts: 2921
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Fri Jul 27, 2018 6:45 am

Kieran973 wrote:In my area, the 2018 can be picked up for under 20K.

Wow. If that only includes the Fed tax credit, it makes the LEAF an attractive value again ... though I still view it as the second car in a household.

I'm quite pleased with our two cars, a 24 kWh LEAF and a Tesla. I view the two as 1.0 + 0.5 = 1.5 cars which fits our needs quite well.
To me the 40 kWh LEAF is a 0.75 car when new and a 0.5 car for a long time thereafter. It would not be used any differently in my household than the 24 kWh LEAF but I can easily imagine it fitting into a niche in other homes.

Your use plan is borderline due to winter. I think you have to ask yourself how long you are willing to sit and charge on your 250 mile trips and/or do with less cabin comfort. If others will be in the car, then think twice before choosing the 40 kWh LEAF.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
Posts: 2371
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Fri Jul 27, 2018 3:10 pm

SageBrush wrote:I think you have to ask yourself how long you are willing to sit and charge on your 250 mile trips and/or do with less cabin comfort.


As a second car, why take on your 250 mile trips?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

Kieran973
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:51 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Jun 2018

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:39 pm

Your use plan is borderline due to winter. I think you have to ask yourself how long you are willing to sit and charge on your 250 mile trips and/or do with less cabin comfort. If others will be in the car, then think twice before choosing the 40 kWh LEAF.


Good point, fair enough. But if I could even pull off four 250 mile trips a year I'd be happy. These would all be in late spring, summer, and early fall.

As a second car, why take on your 250 mile trips?


My work commute only puts about 3,500 miles a year on my car, my weekend driving another 2,000. The real mileage dent comes from doing twelve 500 mile round trips a year. Right now we do all twelve of those in my Honda Civic because it gets better gas mileage than my wife's Honda CRV. In the Civic, I get mid 40's mpg in the winter, low 50's mpg in the summer on these trips. In the CRV, I'm lucky to get mid 30's mpg in the summer on these trips. But if I traded in my Civic for a 2018 Leaf, and if I treated the Leaf like a local-use-only second car and simply did all of our 500 mile out of town trips in the CRV, we'd barely save money on gas, and we'd barely reduce the amount of carbon we release into the atmosphere, because we'd only be using the Leaf for about 5,500 miles a year while drastically increasing the use of the CRV. So instead my goal is six of these 500 mile trips in the Leaf, and six in the CRV. Or if I could even do four in the Leaf that would be fine. Plus, my wife is probably going to take the Leaf to work two days a week because her commute is much longer (about 50 miles round trip) and I'll be stuck with the CRV on those days. Basically, I'm aiming to put about 12,000 miles a year on the Leaf and only 7,000 a year on the CRV.

tuningin
Posts: 59
Joined: Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:50 pm
Delivery Date: 19 Jan 2018
Location: Southern California

Re: Yikes, degradation is looking bad (2018 Leaf)

Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:12 pm

Looks like our heatwave that we've been having is taking it's toll on the battery. I just went from 10% last month at 9000 miles to 13.7% loss and I am now at 10,500 miles.
Daily Commuter:
2018 Nissan Leaf SV w/Tech

Other Car:
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR

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