SageBrush
Posts: 2591
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Contest: Guess April 2018 LEAF sales

Tue May 01, 2018 11:11 am

Welp, now we are done with the 'willing to buy/lease at msrp' crowd.
The rest of the year will be a discount dance by Nissan to reach their regulatory sales goals for CARB compliance.

Anybody know Nissan total sales in the CARB states last year, and the ZEV requirement ? I think the latter is 5% but I am not positive

Addendum:
https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/z ... redits.htm
https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/z ... ebcast.pdf

Total Nissan sales in CA about 150k a year
~ 12% ZEV credits required on average over the next 5 years
2018 LEAF = 2 ZEV credits
So Nissan will target at least 9000* LEAF sales in CA each year

Since CA is about half of EV sales, I'll guess that total LEAF sales in the US annually at 20k.


*
150,000*(0.12/2)
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

edatoakrun
Posts: 5221
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Contest: Guess April 2018 LEAF sales

Tue May 01, 2018 11:43 am

jake14mw wrote:Wow, those are staggering sales drops!

Yes, and for further perspective, notice the LEAF was actually the only Nissan model with a Y/Y increase in April sales:

http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/ ... -u-s-sales
no condition is permanent

SageBrush
Posts: 2591
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Contest: Guess April 2018 LEAF sales

Tue May 01, 2018 11:54 am

edatoakrun wrote:
jake14mw wrote:Wow, those are staggering sales drops!

Yes, and for further perspective, notice the LEAF was actually the only Nissan model with a Y/Y increase in April sales:


No doubt Nissan is delighted :lol:
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
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Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Contest: Guess April 2018 LEAF sales

Tue May 01, 2018 11:59 am

SageBrush wrote:Welp, now we are done with the 'willing to buy/lease at msrp' crowd.
The rest of the year will be a discount dance by Nissan to reach their regulatory sales goals for CARB compliance.


Which is why the Leaf is sold in places unrelated by CARB compliance.

How does that work, again?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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2014 Leaf SL Red

SageBrush
Posts: 2591
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Contest: Guess April 2018 LEAF sales

Tue May 01, 2018 12:04 pm

WetEV wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Welp, now we are done with the 'willing to buy/lease at msrp' crowd.
The rest of the year will be a discount dance by Nissan to reach their regulatory sales goals for CARB compliance.


Which is why the Leaf is sold in places unrelated by CARB compliance.

How does that work, again?

It is called PR by some
Keeping one toe in the water by others.

Pay attention to where Nissan offers discounts
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

joeriv
Posts: 149
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2013 1:33 pm
Location: Fairfield County CT

Re: Contest: Guess April 2018 LEAF sales

Tue May 01, 2018 12:05 pm

Not guessing, just observing that a dealer near me has 18 2018 Leafs in inventory - lot of cars to move!
2017 Leaf S with QC, JUN mfg date

cwerdna
Posts: 7988
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Contest: Guess April 2018 LEAF sales

Tue May 01, 2018 11:06 pm

edatoakrun wrote:Very bad month for all vehicle sales, and especially for Nissan's cars...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN1I23VN

Yeah, saw the headlines this morning about Nissan US sales being down 28% year over year. Seems like no other major automakers had it this bad from your article and my article below. GM is MIA since they won't be reporting monthly sales figures any more.

From https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/ca ... 567997002/
In the biggest surprise of the month, Japanese automaker Nissan reported a stunning sales decline of 28%. The results indicate that Nissan is slashing its sales to fleet customers such as daily rental companies, which are less profitable than sales to individuals, analysts said.

After Nissan resale values suffered, "they've clearly embarked on a new strategy," Krebs said.

Nissan's new CEO, Hiroto Saikawa, had said in January that he would prioritize "quality" sales.

Perhaps they also reduced incentives besides reducing fleet sales?

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Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

jonemyers
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:49 am
Delivery Date: 08 Jan 2016
Leaf Number: 419731

Re: Contest: Guess April 2018 LEAF sales

Wed May 02, 2018 7:05 am

I think these sales numbers are a confirmation that the standard for range is now 200 miles per charge for a new EV. We currently own a 2013 Leaf and 2018 Volt. The Leaf is our "around town" car and the Volt is our all purpose vehicle which has used 2 gallons of gasoline over the last 1000 miles due to one 180 mile trip. I am shopping for a used Volt or Tesla Model S to replace the Leaf because I am tired of juggling cars if one of us has to drive more than around 70 miles in a day (and does not want to take a 30 minute recharge break). The 70 miles of all weather range is fine for my commute but my next EV will have 200 miles of range so that I can drive to a trailhead after work without having to find a charging station that will allow me to get to get home.

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RegGuheert
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Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Contest: Guess April 2018 LEAF sales

Wed May 02, 2018 12:12 pm

jonemyers wrote:I think these sales numbers are a confirmation that the standard for range is now 200 miles per charge for a new EV.
If you want to believe that, then you need to explain why the 2018 Nissan LEAF is currently outselling ALL other PEVs globally by a margin of about 2:1 or higher (the Chinese EC-Series excepted).
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

jonemyers
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:49 am
Delivery Date: 08 Jan 2016
Leaf Number: 419731

Re: Contest: Guess April 2018 LEAF sales

Wed May 02, 2018 2:29 pm

The US is a unique market in that we drive a lot longer distances than Europe or Asia. The distance to drive across Oregon would be as far as across as many as 5 European countries. Drivers in the USA drive at least 2X as many kilometers per capita as drivers in Europe. For me living in Portland, Oregon the nearest large metropolitan area is Seattle which is is 180 miles away. I have multiple co-workers that drive between 80 and 140 miles round trip to work. It does not make sense to me but it is not as uncommon as you would think. There are 5 people at work in line to buy Tesla Model 3's. One has a Leaf, one a BWM i3, and the rest gas vehicles. The Leaf guy has to do 2 QCs per trip for his almost weekly visit to watch college sports. The i3 guy has to use the range extender to make his commute. All the people waiting for the Model 3 want the long range. None are even looking at the new Leaf. 200 miles minimum is what is needed based on my personal observations and conversations with the EV drivers at work.

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