TorC
Posts: 67
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2014 2:19 am
Delivery Date: 08 Mar 2013
Location: Sandefjord, Norway

Re: After Market High Capacity Battery

Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:46 am

Marktm wrote:
Maybe-Someday??



Yeah. "Maybe-Someday".

The problem is that the battery (the vehicle) is not at home when the solar panels have their peak production. Most people have 2 peaks in their 24h cycle. They shower and make breakfast in the morning and they get home from work and will have their supper. Both peaks will be before/after peak production,

Based on the technology available today every kWh in/out of batteries will cost more than the rates today saved if you buy "low" and sell "high".

The "smartgrid" may help a bit so that you will charge when the price is low, but it is hard to belive that it will "balance" the grid unless we have some major changes in grid tariffs.

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Marktm
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Re: After Market High Capacity Battery

Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:33 pm

TorC wrote:[
The problem is that the battery (the vehicle) is not at home when the solar panels have their peak production. Most people have 2 peaks in their 24h cycle. They shower and make breakfast in the morning and they get home from work and will have their supper. Both peaks will be before/after peak production,

Based on the technology available today every kWh in/out of batteries will cost more than the rates today saved if you buy "low" and sell "high".

The "smartgrid" may help a bit so that you will charge when the price is low, but it is hard to belive that it will "balance" the grid unless we have some major changes in grid tariffs.


Being retired in a rural environment, it makes more sense for me. I can plan "transportation" use at my own discretion - go to town late in the afternoon. I would pay the (small) price to be grid independent in my current situation if battery costs go to such low levels (which I doubt, actually).

Agreed I'm likely in the minority - the "disruption" will be driven by other factors. Frankly, I'm too old to worry too much about the "carbon tax" issue (climate change) and it's affect on the eventual "disruption" - that's for my Grandkid's generation. My guess is that hydrocarbon fuel costs will NOT be the driver for "disruption" anytime soon - just too cheap and too much supply for too much time - and we keep finding more!
2012 Leaf SL; 34,000 miles. 12 bars - Battery replaced November 1st, 2016.
4000 watts Grid-tied solar. 3000 watts (level II) off-grid solar Leaf charging capable.

VitaminJ
Posts: 351
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Leaf Number: 415775
Location: Morrison, CO
Contact: YouTube

Re: After Market High Capacity Battery

Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:24 pm

TorC wrote:Very-very few have paid $6500 for a 24 kWh battery replacement. And even if there were a lot of people willing to pay this there are quite a few issues: weight and value.

Lets say that someone actually will able to make a 60 kWh battery replacement for the LEAF, and it does not add to much weight. And the cost is only $8-10K within 3-5 years. WIthin that time your LEAF is 3-5 years older than today, and the value is considerable lower. At the same time Bolt-Ev have been on the marked for 3-5 years. Lets say you have a 2013 LEAF with a 24 kWh battery. In 2022 this LEAF is almost 10 years old, and the oldest Bolts 5 years. What do you think a 5 year old Bolt would be worth? I think $15 K is too much. How much do you think a 2013 LEAF with a 60 kWh would be worth?

Of course there will be a few people willing to pay $8-10K, but the investment needed to make such battery packs are extremely high. I just do not think anyone will can make money on it. But please prove me wrong...

$6500 for a dealership to install an entirely new battery, frankly that's a bargain. A comparable replacement on an ICE car would be a transmission or engine needing replacement. To get a brand new engine or transmission from a dealership and have that same dealer then install it? That would be close to $10k for something like a Honda Accord. Nissan is likely taking a hit, not making a profit and maybe even making a loss on it, but it still shows how much cheaper an EV can be. Right now Tesla claims their 18650 packs cost "less than $190 per kwh," and they are planning on cutting that price to $100/kwh by 2020. Considering a car like the Leaf has practically 0 maintenance and extremely low cost of ownership, sub-$5000 batteries installed by an independent shop could be possible by 2020. If you count salvaged packs from wrecked cars, you could get a replacement pack with 50k to 100k miles of life left installed for far less. Like I said before cars are the #1 most recycled consumer product, why would being EV change that? In my mind it will just make them far more recyclable! No oil leaks, no toxic fluids, no wear items like spark plugs, timing belts, etc. As someone who just pulled an engine out of their 21-year-old ICE car this evening; that makes me excited.


And anyone who is installing solar without a battery bank in their house is missing the entire point in my opinion. If you have a battery bank, the average house can be nearly 100% self sufficient off of rooftop PV solar year-round.
2013 Ocean Blue SV w/ QC and LED

PM me about converting your 120v EVSE to 240v

powersurge
Posts: 581
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:24 am
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Location: Long Island, NY

Re: After Market High Capacity Battery

Fri Feb 17, 2017 7:28 am

I agree that we should not become a throw-away society, even with EVs. Those who say it is not worth it to replace a battery on a Leaf are very short-sighted and may be more interested in having the latest and greatest....

If you have a Leaf with a bad battery, what is the resale value? Really Low. If I spent $35k on a car, I am not going to accept that my car is worthless because I needs a battery. If a $4-5000 investment (like the other poster mentioned -like an engine or transmission) can keep my car running for another 50-100K miles, it is a bargain.

Then, I may ALSO buy another used EV, but I will not take a hit on my valuable (to me) car's resale value....

TorC
Posts: 67
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2014 2:19 am
Delivery Date: 08 Mar 2013
Location: Sandefjord, Norway

Re: After Market High Capacity Battery

Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:46 am

powersurge wrote:I agree that we should not become a throw-away society, even with EVs. Those who say it is not worth it to replace a battery on a Leaf are very short-sighted and may be more interested in having the latest and greatest....

If you have a Leaf with a bad battery, what is the resale value? Really Low. If I spent $35k on a car, I am not going to accept that my car is worthless because I needs a battery. If a $4-5000 investment (like the other poster mentioned -like an engine or transmission) can keep my car running for another 50-100K miles, it is a bargain.

Then, I may ALSO buy another used EV, but I will not take a hit on my valuable (to me) car's resale value....



You may have misunderstood my claims. And I do not like the throw-away society we have. However it does not change reality. A 10 year old LEAF is less worth than a new one. If you need more range it will be better value to change the car than to upgrade the battery.

And there is a big difference in repairing a vehicle and upgrade it. The engine/transmission analogy is not valid. This is repairs, not upgrades. A vehicle with a broken engine is worth the scrap value. If a similar vehicle is worth $ 5000, then it makes economical sense to spend up to that value in repairs. If the engine analogy were to be valid you would have to do an upgrade. Who in their right mind would replace a working 100 engine with a brand new 150 hp engine if the marked value of a similar car with worth less than the cost of the upgrade?

If your battery is bad however it might be economical to repair it, but not upgrade it. You will probably be able to get a good battery from a scrapyard for less than $1000 within a few years. Swapping it takes less than an hour. Repairing a 5-10 year old LEAF for $1000 will probably be good economy. Repairing it for $ 6500 or upgrading it for $ 8000 is probably not. And it is probably going to be so expensive that no company will even offer an upgrade. On the LEAF it is impossible to just "pop in" a larger battery pack. Several systems must be reprogrammed. The R&D cost will be extremely high. If you have bought a LEAF and were told new battery packs will be compatible with old LEAFs your were lied to. The Renault ZOE however is, and will be backward compatible. The new 41 kWh battery can fairly easy be put in the first R210. (I am told that the new ZOE will be sold as Nissan Micra EV in the US). Renault is also a lot more interested in 3.rd party upgrades and "add-ons". Just have a look on the EP-tender.

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