TorC wrote:Very-very few have paid $6500 for a 24 kWh battery replacement. And even if there were a lot of people willing to pay this there are quite a few issues: weight and value.
Lets say that someone actually will able to make a 60 kWh battery replacement for the LEAF, and it does not add to much weight. And the cost is only $8-10K within 3-5 years. WIthin that time your LEAF is 3-5 years older than today, and the value is considerable lower. At the same time Bolt-Ev have been on the marked for 3-5 years. Lets say you have a 2013 LEAF with a 24 kWh battery. In 2022 this LEAF is almost 10 years old, and the oldest Bolts 5 years. What do you think a 5 year old Bolt would be worth? I think $15 K is too much. How much do you think a 2013 LEAF with a 60 kWh would be worth?
Of course there will be a few people willing to pay $8-10K, but the investment needed to make such battery packs are extremely high. I just do not think anyone will can make money on it. But please prove me wrong...
$6500 for a dealership to install an entirely new battery, frankly that's a bargain. A comparable replacement on an ICE car would be a transmission or engine needing replacement. To get a brand new engine or transmission from a dealership and have that same dealer then install it? That would be close to $10k for something like a Honda Accord. Nissan is likely taking a hit, not making a profit and maybe even making a loss on it, but it still shows how much cheaper an EV can be. Right now Tesla claims their 18650 packs cost "less than $190 per kwh," and they are planning on cutting that price to $100/kwh by 2020. Considering a car like the Leaf has practically 0 maintenance and extremely low cost of ownership, sub-$5000 batteries installed by an independent shop could be possible by 2020. If you count salvaged packs from wrecked cars, you could get a replacement pack with 50k to 100k miles of life left installed for far less. Like I said before cars are the #1 most recycled consumer product, why would being EV change that? In my mind it will just make them far more recyclable! No oil leaks, no toxic fluids, no wear items like spark plugs, timing belts, etc. As someone who just pulled an engine out of their 21-year-old ICE car this evening; that makes me excited.
And anyone who is installing solar without a battery bank in their house is missing the entire point in my opinion. If you have a battery bank, the average house can be nearly 100% self sufficient off of rooftop PV solar year-round.