Buy or Not

Another post trying to make a decision...

I have a 2013 VW Passat with 35K, fully paid off. My current commute is about 44miles round trip to work. Mostly highway. My future work location in about 6 months is a mix of highway and city street, 55 miles round trip. I can get a brand new 2017 SL for 16K after tax credits and rebates. Gas is about $2.20 in my area and my current car gives me 30 mpg.

I am in line to get the Tesla Model 3, late 2018/early 2019. Should I get the Leaf and cancel my Tesla reservation?

The Leaf will do both your current and future commute with little problem for years to come.

Doing the math: 44m/d x 5 d/w = 220 miles per week commuting now, 55 x 5 = 275 miles later.
Current car fuel cost: 220/30*2.2 = $16.13 /week now 275/30*2.2 = $20.16 /week later.
Leaf fuel cost: 220*.025 = $5.50 /week now and 275 * .025 = $6.88 /week later. Assuming 4 miles/KWH efficiency and $.10/KWH cost if you actually pay for the electricity. If you have free public or at work charging available, so much the better.

Both cars should be low maintenance for the next 150K miles with the Leaf being the lower of the two.

Bottom line, the savings in fuel expense will not justify the expense of the monthly payments but the Leaf will be far more affordable than the M3 will be.

If you sell the VW, you should recoup most of the cost of the new Leaf and then the fuel cost savings will be saving you money every week.

Thank you!

How are you calculating electricity cost? (0.025 X number of miles). We pay about .11C per kWH. No chargers at work, but I am getting solar panels to offset my electric bill.

The Leaf should accomplish what you need. That said, I suspect once the bug is planted after getting the Leaf, you may find yourself wanting the M3. Your Leaf is going to depreciate like crazy, likely to drop $8,000 after 4 years from that $16,000. If you can get an equal deal with a lease, you may want to lease the Leaf, and keep the M3 reservation. The M3 will have a feature set that's really going to make you want one.

In either case, no matter what you do, I recommend either keeping that $1,000 reservation, or when you get that $1,000 dumping it into TSLA stock.

I just used a guess of 4 miles per KWH and a cost of $.10 to make it easy. Using your $.11/KWH and the 4 miles/KWH brings the figure up to $.0275 per mile or just round up to 3 cents per mile to account for some inefficiency. To compare a Leaf to a gas guzzler, take the current price of gas, $2.07 in my area and divide that by .03 to figure out your MPGe, in this case 67 miles for the same cost as a gallon of gas. As your efficiency improves or the price of gas goes up, your miles per cost of a gallon of gas goes up.

kartram said:

Thank you!

How are you calculating electricity cost? (0.025 X number of miles). We pay about .11C per kWH. No chargers at work, but I am getting solar panels to offset my electric bill.

Click to expand...

If you're in an area that gets real winters, it makes a difference if you have work charging available and if so, how reliable it is.

If work charging available and relatively cheap, a used 2013+ Leaf could work out.

If no work charging and winters not really cold, a 2017 lease could be a relatively low cost option.

You don't say your situation or required timeframe, but a Bolt might be something you could own/lease while waiting for Tesla to work the bugs out of the still unavailable car.

Definitely look at what sort of lease deals are being offered. Nissan is really trying to move these with the added competition, so you probably can get into one for a pretty low price and then you'd have the option to turn it in after the years, while still being able to buy it if you really wanted to.

In that case is also keep the model 3 deposit, in case you want to trade up in a few years.

A new Leaf should do what you need, but be warned that many people on this forum find that their personal Leaf, their personal driving style, or their climate gives them a much lower range than advertised. You may find yourself pushing the limit more than you are comfortable with. If your maximum range turns out to be, let's say, 80 miles, then your commute will leave you with 35 miles of maximum driving to go anywhere else in a given day.

Personally I couldn't have a Leaf as my only car.

Durandal said:

In either case, no matter what you do, I recommend either keeping that $1,000 reservation, or when you get that $1,000 dumping it into TSLA stock.

Click to expand...

Wifee bought TSLA stock late last year and she's so happy! It has jumped pretty good recently and can't wait til end of year when the Miii comes out. Should hopefully boost it up even more!

I am going to test drive the SL, and possibly the SV tomorrow. I am keeping the M3 reservation for now and might lease the Leaf if the offer looks good.

Thanks everyone, good information!!