I was basing that estimate on the empirical numbers the OP provided.
Drove 22 miles in 108 degree weather, AC on full, used 93 gids, SOC from 82% to 49.8%
Since GIDs are linearly related to kWh, the 32% drop is odd since (93 GIDS x 80 kWh/GID)/0.32 = 23 kWh of pack capacity. I must be misunderstanding something, or the SOC drop is inaccurate, because I would have thought his useable pack capacity would be closer to 18 kWh. 23 kWh seems way too high.
Anyways, here's my math:
Driving 22 miles consumed 93 GIDs (93 GIDs x 80 kWh/Gid = 7.4 kWh) while driving in extreme temperatures. Based on his 85% SOH, I conservatively estimate his pack capacity as 18 kWh.
So, (22 miles x 18 kWh)/7.4 kWh = 53 miles total range when driving at those extreme temperatures
So, you're right
, I was overly optimistic about the improved range when driving at more moderate temps.
FYI, I found this chart online, which shows the impact of ambient temperature on range:
According to that chart, at temps over 100F, the range with a "typical" Leaf pack would be a little under 60 miles. Amazing what a difference temperature makes, considering wind resistance is lower with higher air temperatures. Based on the chart, there's roughly a 25% drop in range between driving at 70F and driving at over 100F. If so, 53 miles at 108F would translate to around 66 miles at 70F.
Canadian with a US 2013 Ocean Blue SV + QC, purchased 01/2017 in WA
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1-1/4" Curt #11396 hitch
After market, DIY LED DRLs
LeafSpy Pro + Konnwei KW902 ELM327 BT OBDII dongle
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