BUY NOW or LATER

I have been interested in the Leaf for about 2 years now. I now have the opportunity to get a "In stock" discounted 2011 one at my local dealer. I am not on any waiting list. I am on the fence about being an "early adopter" since I anticipate the cost of these to come down, but at the same time the federal tax credit would be reduced, so I don't see the net price of these falling within the next 3 years. I did the math and at current gas prices, it will cost more to own the leaf (even with tax credit) than my current 2011 scion xb (25mpg).

I already worked a deal with the dealer and they are giving me a pretty good amount on my trade, so I am not taking a bath on that.

Options:
1) Keep my Xb (currently $166 month and only owe $5500 and will be paid off in 2014) and give it to my daughter in 2014 and THEN buy an electric in 2014. Hopes: is longer range more choice vehicles with lower price, Fears: extreme high gas prices, putting high demand on EV driving prices up, federal tax credits being discontinued or reduced.

2) buy leaf now (after trade $357mo, 60 months after tax credit) and then buy something used around $10k in 2014 for daughter. Hopes: buying leaf now will secure my interest in EV, positive savings when gas goes above $5 per gallon. Fears: more EV choice, better technology, longer range, and cheaper prices in 2014., at todays fuel prices, does not make sense. I will have dual car payments in 2014, going this route, since I will have to buy my daughter a used car.

Any suggestions? Anyone have a crystal ball?

if the Leaf has a cold weather package (heated seats and steering wheel) then go for it, otherwise I'd look at waiting for another that has it. There are plenty of Leafs on the market right now and many have the cold weather package. Heck, the last time I visited my dealer there were 6 on the lot and half had the heated seats.

clifsmith said:

I have been interested in the Leaf for about 2 years now. I now have the opportunity to get a "In stock" discounted 2011 one at my local dealer.

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Sounds like you've thought it out pretty well. I assume you have already researched the Leaf and understand its range, etc, and know that it would work for you as your primary vehicle?

There will definitely be more choices available down the road. I don't expect prices of these vehicles to drop at all within the next 3 to 5 years.

Rather than trying to justify your price compared to your current vehicle and how much it costs to own/operate, you might want to compare to some other vehicle that you are considering buying brand-new. That is the only "fair" way to look at the ownership costs of an EV.

But I just looked at it this way.. I wanted the Leaf, and I didn't need to justify it to anyone, not even to myself. That was the car I wanted and that was the one I bought.

adric22 said:

... Rather than trying to justify your price compared to your current vehicle and how much it costs to own/operate, you might want to compare to some other vehicle that you are considering buying brand-new. That is the only "fair" way to look at the ownership costs of an EV. ...

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I agree. There probably isn't a new car anywhere that will beat your used car that's almost paid for in terms of cost to operate. You are either in the market for a new car, or you are not. I don't think the prices will drop at all in this time frame, indeed you may lose out on state level incentives between now and then that will cause the price to you to rise. Also, unless you're in the market for a Tesla, I don't see a car coming out in that time frame that will be significantly better than the LEAF.

clifsmith said:

I have been interested in the Leaf for about 2 years now.

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And yet you recently purchased a 2011 Scion. No fault in that but I would tend to stick with what you have decided.
Reevaluate in 2014.

My advice, given your circumstances, would be to wait. I applaud your desire to drive an EV, and the LEAF is a great value. It is really hard to go back to driving a gasoline vehicle after driving electric. But our desire to protect the environment and contribute to energy independence must be balanced with our families' long-term financial stability.

Personally, I am not a big fan of car payments, since cars depreciate. You cannot generally build long term "equity" in a car the way you can in a home, at least in less turbulent real estate markets. If your income drops or the car has unexpected, major problems not covered under warranty (the only thing I can think of with the LEAF is more rapid than expected battery capacity loss), and you still have to make payments, then you could be sort of stuck. Any time I have taken out a car loan, I have paid it off as quickly as possible, even if the interest rate is favorable.

I think the best financial advice would be to keep driving your current car until you can pay cash for a used EV, and never take out a car loan again. That said, some of us were significantly less conservative than usual, in a financial sense, in purchasing the LEAF. It did not make financial sense for me to purchase a brand new LEAF, but I really wanted to be part of the movement toward EVs and it was not really that large a purchase relative to my income.

As for your daughter, will you really need to spend that much on a car for her? Won't she be capable of working to pay for at least part of the cost? Admittedly, my parents gave me an older car when I was in college, but it was rusty, had zero options, not even air-conditioning (I went to school in a warm area of SoCal), and wasn't worth very much. After graduating from college and getting a job, I purchased something nicer and gave the old car to my brother. I think it is a very bad idea to take out a car loan to give a vehicle to a child. They will appreciate a vehicle more after working for it.

As for gas prices going up, if they really jump in a large way, then our ability to purchase a car will be the least of our concerns, as the economy will most likely be tanking.

abasile I agree. I think main question here is



there always will be bigger, better and nicer in the future

FWIW, the Leaf for me was a poor personal financial decision, like any new car, but I'm really glad I went ahead with it. We're having a ball with the thing, and getting lots of use out it. The car is great to drive, quiet, smooth and powerful like no other, and no more stopping for gas and oil changes. Not sure how to put a $ value on that. For all those times you hear people grumbling about gas prices that "somebody should do something about it"... guess what somebody finally has, and I thought it was important to support them, not just sit on the sidelines.

But as other posters pointed out, if it's a financial strain, don't go there. On the other hand if it means the difference between retiring with $2M or $2.03M, I don't think you'll regret having a little "practical fun" with the Leaf.

adric22 said:

clifsmith said:

I have been interested in the Leaf for about 2 years now. I now have the opportunity to get a "In stock" discounted 2011 one at my local dealer.

Click to expand...

Sounds like you've thought it out pretty well. I assume you have already researched the Leaf and understand its range, etc, and know that it would work for you as your primary vehicle?

There will definitely be more choices available down the road. I don't expect prices of these vehicles to drop at all within the next 3 to 5 years.

Rather than trying to justify your price compared to your current vehicle and how much it costs to own/operate, you might want to compare to some other vehicle that you are considering buying brand-new. That is the only "fair" way to look at the ownership costs of an EV.

But I just looked at it this way.. I wanted the Leaf, and I didn't need to justify it to anyone, not even to myself. That was the car I wanted and that was the one I bought.

Click to expand...

Adric22's rationale was the same for me and just went ahead and traded my 2009 370Z a week ago and I do not miss it at all. I think I am crazy but, damn I looooooove this techy Leaf Cayenne Read 2011 SL.

Wow some great responses here and quick too. Thank you. As far as my decision to buy my current vehicle, I bought my 2011 Scion XB back in May 2010. Yes they just released the 2011 models back then. At that time, I was thinking that I would not even be able to touch a leaf until 2013 unless I got on the waiting list and ordered. Also, I really wanted to get a discount and drive one first, so no ordering for me. Which is where I am at today, 2011 Leaf is currently available, driveable, and discounted. I just didn't think it would happen this quick, so I bought my Scion with the intention of option #1 above in my original post. So option #1 above really was my intention all along. I am just chomping at the bit right now to get a leaf especially a 2011 since it is significantly cheaper and discounted over the 2012 model and cold weather package is useless in south texas.

More factors:
-I can afford to buy the leaf now but in june 2014 would have 2 car payments with 30 months remaining on the leaf. (based on 60 months financing)
-In 2014 my daughter must receive low mileage 2 - 4 year old car (wife is behind this one). If I had my choice, she would be driving a $3k car. My Scion really is a perfect car for her.
-With option #1, I will have no down payment money for an EV (nothing to trade), unless I start saving. So that payment may be as high as having 2 car payments if I chose option #2.

The only thing I can say about the technology of EVs in the future is that I believe battery technology WILL make leaps and bounds (cheaper to manufacture, more capacity, less weight, quicker charge, etc.) in a short period of time which should make the future EVs better and cheaper. They HAVE to become cheaper or more cost effective or they will all fail in sales. Either gas will have to get to $7+ per gallon or the prices of EVs need to be down for the masses to afford.

clifsmith said:

-With option #1, I will have no down payment money for an EV (nothing to trade), unless I start saving. So that payment may be as high as having 2 car payments if I chose option #2.

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so here is your answer, but make sure that your driving range is covered. I have TX Leaf (wrong side of Red river) and I am very happy, every day 18 miles and every other day 60 additionally.

Does Texas let solo drivers of electric vehicles use the carpool lanes yet? California does, and I've saved 200+ hours so far commuting in the carpool lane.

clifsmith said:

2) buy leaf now (after trade $357mo, 60 months after tax credit) and then buy something used around $10k in 2014 for daughter. Hopes: buying leaf now will secure my interest in EV, positive savings when gas goes above $5 per gallon. Fears: more EV choice, better technology, longer range, and cheaper prices in 2014., at todays fuel prices, does not make sense. I will have dual car payments in 2014, going this route, since I will have to buy my daughter a used car.

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How much are you getting for the Scion ? If you can buy a used car for your daughter in 2014 with that amount, it is a wash. You can just ignore that aspect for now.

So, the question boils down to - can you afford to get an EV now - or do you need to wait till 2014. By 2014, indeed you will have more choices. But most probably more expensive choices (like S, Inifniti EV and BMW i3) rather than inexpensive choices. The range of Leaf might be a little bit more - 20% or so is my guess.

Another thing to consider is that you may be able to get a better ICE for your daughter - something that gives better mileage than the Scion (Prius C ?) in 2014.

If I had an option to wait today, I would rather wait until 2013 version is out which is promised to have faster charging and maybe slight range increase.

IBELEAF said:

If I had an option to wait today, I would rather wait until 2013 version is out which is promised to have faster charging and maybe slight range increase.

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+1. If I didn't already have a LEAF, I wouldn't mind waiting for the 2013 model for the 6.6 kW charger alone, even with the same range. I'm glad I've already had 9+ months and 9000 miles of LEAF enjoyment, though, and the fun of being one of the very first adopters. Also, the 6.6 kW charger would make little difference to someone, unlike myself, who rarely stretches the range of the car.

SharonaLA said:

Does Texas let solo drivers of electric vehicles use the carpool lanes yet? California does, and I've saved 200+ hours so far commuting in the carpool lane.

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some days, the HOV-lane privilege is worth the price of admission.
But I do love driving gas free and the bonus--off my rooftop PV.

I was enthusiastic to get my feet wet, if you are that kind of person, you probably want to do that sooner than later. It's kind of hard to explain how first hand experience in this revolutionary vehicle begins to find it's way into a multitude of areas of your life. My interest in this car has branched out into learning about the burgeoning edge of battery technology, electricity production, renewable energy, politics and much more. Once you have one and drive one, even if you are already an enthusiast, you will probably find it makes you challenge the way you thought about a lot of things. I've even considered changing my profession over what I've learned since owning a leaf. One of the more riveting experiences I've had so far was plugging the car into a DC fast charger and watching it take an 80% charge in 35 minutes... blew away the way I think about batteries and electricity.

if you can swing it now, go for it and add to the momentum, become part of the wave!

GaslessInSeattle said:

if you can swing it now, go for it and add to the momentum, become part of the wave!

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I completely agree. The LEAF is a game changer which will (positively) impact your life more than you think it will.

I believe it's just as important to get the children, our future generation, involved as early as possible and what better way than learning about driving electric. My 8 year old is doing her science project on the LEAF and my 10 year old nephew has already said his first car will be electric!

clifsmith said:

I have been interested in the Leaf for about 2 years now. I now have the opportunity to get a "In stock" discounted 2011 one at my local dealer. I am not on any waiting list. I am on the fence about being an "early adopter" since I anticipate the cost of these to come down, but at the same time the federal tax credit would be reduced, so I don't see the net price of these falling within the next 3 years. I did the math and at current gas prices, it will cost more to own the leaf (even with tax credit) than my current 2011 scion xb (25mpg).

I already worked a deal with the dealer and they are giving me a pretty good amount on my trade, so I am not taking a bath on that.

Options:
1) Keep my Xb (currently $166 month and only owe $5500 and will be paid off in 2014) and give it to my daughter in 2014 and THEN buy an electric in 2014. Hopes: is longer range more choice vehicles with lower price, Fears: extreme high gas prices, putting high demand on EV driving prices up, federal tax credits being discontinued or reduced.

2) buy leaf now (after trade $357mo, 60 months after tax credit) and then buy something used around $10k in 2014 for daughter. Hopes: buying leaf now will secure my interest in EV, positive savings when gas goes above $5 per gallon. Fears: more EV choice, better technology, longer range, and cheaper prices in 2014., at todays fuel prices, does not make sense. I will have dual car payments in 2014, going this route, since I will have to buy my daughter a used car.

Any suggestions? Anyone have a crystal ball?

Click to expand...

Have you ever thought of leasing? I have a 3 year lease at $295 a month. I don't want to be stuck with version 1.0. In 3 years time when my lease is up there will be a lot more other EV models out there and because of the battery technology improving I want a car that can go more the distance than what the Leaf does now. For distance the Tesla model S is better however it is expensive right now but will come down in 3 years time but not as affordable as the Mitsubishi "i" which is much cheaper than the Leaf and can go a longer distance which is available now. I am looking forward for the Toyota RAV4 EV and the Ford Focus that will be coming out late this year. I understand that the Focus also comes with a better navigation system and more options with entertainment.

adric22 said:

But I just looked at it this way.. I wanted the Leaf, and I didn't need to justify it to anyone, not even to myself. That was the car I wanted and that was the one I bought.

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+1 Me too!
:lol: :lol: :lol: