Is Leaf right for me?

Very interested in a Leaf, but not sure I can justify the "premium" for owning an EV. Here is my situation:

4 person family. 3 cars currently. Daughter is taking 2003 Mini Cooper to college with her in the fall. That will leave 3 people & 2 cars (3 year old Honda Odyssey for the wife & 10 year old Audi A8L for me). Son will be a JR in high school in the fall with his license currently in hand.

My commute is total of 25.5 miles each way. 3.8 miles "city" and 21.7 miles "highway" (2/3 at 55 mph liimit & 1/3 at 65 mph limit without any usual heavy traffic). Most days include a short trip out for lunch and that is all. Other days, there are some errands, but nothing dramatic or over 10 miles.

Unfortunately, no option for charging at work that I know of. Commute is from home in Northern Kentucky to Northern suburbs of Cincinnati (West Chester).

Initial quote from local dealer is for SV model leased at $367 plus tax with $1,135 upfront to start (that includes 1st month and fees). 12k miles a year for 39 months. The residual value at the end is $16,365.

Have seen some advertisements this Memorial Day weekend for Chevy Volts at $250/mo. on a 3 yr. lease.

Leaf SV currently is $$289/mo with $3k down
http://www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/index#/leaf-electric-car/index

Look like your car that you drive to work gets 18MPG? http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/15981.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hard to put a cost on the fun aspect of driving an *EV.

With the Volt you'd burn some gas each day but not much. Folks at those speeds are easily getting 40 MPG after going 40-45 EV miles. Various folks are driving the Volt 60+ miles per day tho and burning a little gas. Their MPGused is over the top still even.

Not sure if the $367 to $250 ($117 diff) is an equal comparison because the upfront cost is unknown.

25 miles each way should be easy. If you have any doubts, you might try and rent a Leaf for a few days and just try it out on your daily route.

If the rental agencies in your area do not have any Leafs, then ask the dealer for an extended test drive and test your commute that way. It depends on the dealer, but if you tell them its a deal breaker, most of them will work with you.

Honest answer: You will have no problem at all in the summer. You may have a problem in the winter if you can't find a place to at least trickle charge. I have a very similar commute but with slightly harsher winter conditions. Work lets me plug in to 120V to make the winter little less of a problem. Also, you may want to consider more than 12K miles per year. I haven't even started my gas car once since I got my LEAF.

Do the math and figure out how much money you are burning in your gas car. You'll be surprised just how cheap the LEAF is to lease and charge compared to leasing and filling up a normal car.

I don't make a lot of money and didn't really have a problem justifying the LEAF's premium price. I've traveled just 600 miles in my new LEAF so far. But in that time I've saved over $130 worth of gas (compared to my gas car) and consumed less than $12 worth of electricity (about a quarter of which is covered by my work). If I project my savings over a month, it's marginally cheaper to lease and charge this LEAF than it is to just fill up my old gas car. But once I factor in insurance and my down payment, my gas car wins. But not by as much. It's not just about savings. Having a nice new car is also worth something.

I think you should scout out a place to charge at work. All you need is an outside 120V plug. Charging at work in the winter will give you at least 20 miles of range. You probably will make it without charging at work, but it's nice to have a few extra miles of range available in case you need to do something at lunch or after work.

If plugging in isn't an option for the winter and the LEAF will be your only car available for commuting (which it looks like it may be that way), the LEAF may not be a good option for you. In that case, check out the Volt.

As you'll still have the Odyssey and would also assume that you may want to swap cars with the wife once in awhile (unless you can't be caught dead driving a minivan!) that sounds quite doable --- your weather is bit more mild than ours (Chicago) so even during lower temps you still should be fine for your commutes. A Volt is OK as well but quite doubtful you would ever make it both ways w/o burning a bit of gas with the 35 to 45 max range on electricity and no way to charge it at work. For us, we always have a long trip car in addition to the EV as it looks like you would too -- all three of us (7 mile, 30 mile and 44 mile r/t commutes --- 4 cars 3 drivers) have taken it, even in the dead of winter and while the range gets reduced due to running the heater, etc. we always have plenty in reserve so your 51 mile r/t should be fine. As long as you're OK with the minivan being the long trip car ... would imagine the ride/comfort against that extended wheelbase Audi is a step down that's also something to think about as well. Even compared to your older Audi, the LEAF is simply luxury car quiet, hard to compare it to most other vehicles. Would also assume whether you got a Volt or LEAF that you would L2 charge at home? If so, the LEAF makes more sense as you'll be outlaying something fairly expensive that will get you back and forth strictly on EV power. In decisions like these I try to think through HOW I plan to use the car I'm considering so that's your dilemma ...

jpa2825 said:

My commute is total of 25.5 miles each way. 3.8 miles "city" and 21.7 miles "highway" (2/3 at 55 mph liimit & 1/3 at 65 mph limit without any usual heavy traffic). Most days include a short trip out for lunch and that is all. Other days, there are some errands, but nothing dramatic or over 10 miles.

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This should be an easy commute for the Leaf, and perhaps a charging opportunity will open up. Even if it was a regular wall outlet. For what it's worth, here is the ad one of the local Nissan dealers is running. They reportedly have quite a few Leafs on the lot, and are getting more aggressive with their deals. Reminds me a bit of the slump the Volt experienced a while ago.

I have a similar commute - 30 miles each way. We had some cold days when I first got my car, but I haven't actually tried it in winter weather yet. In warm summer weather, I can make the round-trip commute easily with only an 80% charge. I don't expect to have any problems in the winter, but I'll have to use 100% charging.

Thanks for the quick, thoughtful feedback. A few additional items to help the discussion:

Dealer is allowing an overnight test drive. Will pick up tomorrow at lunch and return end of day on Wednesday. Should be enlightening.

Son would drive Audi to/from school when I drive Leaf, so switching with him when there are issues (cold weather, not full charge, extra errands to run during/after work, etc.) shouldn't be a problem.

Audi currently gets just over 20 mpg over the past 18 mos. I have had it.

I am not opposed to putting in an L2 charger, but that would go into the economic calculus. I think it could be done as the detached garage is only 20 feet from where the dryer is currently. Older house, so panel may be stretched by this.

Cincinnati is always late at adopting trends. As such, I expect it will be some time before charging stations become commonplace.

I have not yet pressed on any of the finance issues yet. None of the dealers anywhere close have any stock, so these would all be factory orders OR dealer swaps to locate. No significant pressure onfamily until daugter takes car to college in mid-August.

With your freeway distance drop the 65 mpg to 55-60 and you will make it no problem.

jpa2825 said:

I am not opposed to putting in an L2 charger, but that would go into the economic calculus. I think it could be done as the detached garage is only 20 feet from where the dryer is currently. Older house, so panel may be stretched by this.

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On the charge station, you can save some money by working with a local electrician. The AV installs are pretty expensive.

I bought the GE Wattstation from Lowes and it works great.

http://www.lowes.com/SearchCatalogDisplay?Ntt=ge+wattstation&storeId=10151&N=0&langId=-1&catalogId=10051&rpp=24" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Did an overnight test drive with a Leaf SL (black) from the local dealer near my work. They were very cooperative about offering it and making it happen.

Overall, I thought it was unremarkable -- in a good way. It drove like a car. Handled like a car. Felt sturdy like a car. May be because it IS a car. Not sure what I was expecting, but I was pleased with the experience.

I drove it home from work ~25 miles in ECO and basically took 35 miles of range for the 25 miles covered (down from 90 miles to 55 miles). Didn't pay attention to the bars. Traffic was a bit heavier than normal, but generally travelled at 65 when it was possible. Full climate control on at 72 degrees which was very comfortable.

A small bit of around the town driving once home was fine, but I didn't do much of it.

Plugged it into the regular outlet in my detached garage around 8:15 PM. It was fully charged when I left at 7:00 AM the next morning. Did this commute in regular D (rather than ECO) and had similar results. Noticed I lost 4 of the 11 or 12 bars and again around 35 range miles for the 25 miles covered. Slightly less traffic than the ride home, but more than usual.

Would really have liked to done the full commute on 1 charge. However, based on my experience, I don't think I would have much "range anxiety"' with my commute. Suggests I would typically use 70 miles of the 100 allocated in a full charge. Perhaps on very cold days it would be a much closer call. Also, without an L2 charger, getting a fulll charge after a full commute over 8-10 hours might be a challenge.

I'm still very concerned about the premium for a Leaf. I'm going to have to run the #s on why it makes more economic sense than a used Prius for me OR a "beater" for the 16 year old.

P.S. Any thoughts on the economics of leasing a Leaf from a West Coast or East Coast dealer used to the Leaf with inventory on hand? So far, I am hearing it is an "order only" process here in the Cincinnati area and "maybe" a dealer trade, but not likely.

jpa2825 said:

I drove it home from work ~25 miles in ECO and basically took 35 miles of range for the 25 miles covered (down from 90 miles to 55 miles). Didn't pay attention to the bars.

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You are referring to what we call the Guess-o-meter. It is worthless for judging how far you can go. Paying attention to the bars makes more sense.

I'm still very concerned about the premium for a Leaf. I'm going to have to run the #s on why it makes more economic sense than a used Prius for me OR a "beater" for the 16 year old.

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A new car is always going to cost more than a used car or a "beater". You will save a lot on fuel, but it depends on your price for electricity and the MPG of the car the Leaf is replacing. For instance, my Leaf displaces miles from my old Toyota Camry. I figure about $12,000 savings in fuel cost over 100,000 miles. Likely there will be a lot less maintenance--if you look at the manual there is practically no routine service (occasional brake fluid changes, cabin microfilter replacement and tire rotation), so you are likely to save there. You have to balance this against aging of the battery and the fact that at some point you will have to spend money to replace cells or buy a whole new pack. No one knows what that will cost 5-8 years from now.

jpa2825 said:

Suggests I would typically use 70 miles of the 100 allocated in a full charge. Perhaps on very cold days it would be a much closer call. Also, without an L2 charger, getting a fulll charge after a full commute over 8-10 hours might be a challenge.

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Please don't use the GuessOmeter or Nissan's 100 mile range projection. Check out the range chart in my signature line, and if you have an iPhone / iPad, there is an app for that.

You can type in your actual route and temperature and see what the results are with different variables. It factors elevation changes automatically amongst other things.

jpa2825 said:

I'm still very concerned about the premium for a Leaf. I'm going to have to run the #s on why it makes more economic sense than a used Prius for me OR a "beater" for the 16 year old.

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The premium for a Leaf isn't bad when compared with a new gasoline car, especially with a significant commute like yours. From the standpoint of personal finances, however, a used car would be better.

Of course, other reasons to spring for a Leaf would be the smooth, quiet, responsive nature of the electric drivetrain, the cool factor, and the societal benefits of polluting less and reducing oil dependency. I feel that electric cars are patriotic; also remember that the Leaf will soon be produced in Tennessee.

jpa2825 said:

I am not opposed to putting in an L2 charger, but that would go into the economic calculus. I think it could be done as the detached garage is only 20 feet from where the dryer is currently. Older house, so panel may be stretched by this.

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L2 may be important for you. L1 charging will give you about 5% charge per hour. If you get home needing to add, say, 70% back into the pack, that's 14 hours of charge time. L1 worked ok initially for me, but my commute r/t is about half of yours. Were it double, I'm not sure I could have managed easily with L1.

jpa2825 said:

Did an overnight test drive with a Leaf SL (black) from the local dealer near my work. They were very cooperative about offering it and making it happen.

Overall, I thought it was unremarkable -- in a good way. It drove like a car. Handled like a car. Felt sturdy like a car. May be because it IS a car. Not sure what I was expecting, but I was pleased with the experience.

I drove it home from work ~25 miles in ECO and basically took 35 miles of range for the 25 miles covered (down from 90 miles to 55 miles). Didn't pay attention to the bars. Traffic was a bit heavier than normal, but generally travelled at 65 when it was possible. Full climate control on at 72 degrees which was very comfortable.

A small bit of around the town driving once home was fine, but I didn't do much of it.

Plugged it into the regular outlet in my detached garage around 8:15 PM. It was fully charged when I left at 7:00 AM the next morning. Did this commute in regular D (rather than ECO) and had similar results. Noticed I lost 4 of the 11 or 12 bars and again around 35 range miles for the 25 miles covered. Slightly less traffic than the ride home, but more than usual.

Would really have liked to done the full commute on 1 charge. However, based on my experience, I don't think I would have much "range anxiety"' with my commute. Suggests I would typically use 70 miles of the 100 allocated in a full charge. Perhaps on very cold days it would be a much closer call. Also, without an L2 charger, getting a fulll charge after a full commute over 8-10 hours might be a challenge.

I'm still very concerned about the premium for a Leaf. I'm going to have to run the #s on why it makes more economic sense than a used Prius for me OR a "beater" for the 16 year old.

P.S. Any thoughts on the economics of leasing a Leaf from a West Coast or East Coast dealer used to the Leaf with inventory on hand? So far, I am hearing it is an "order only" process here in the Cincinnati area and "maybe" a dealer trade, but not likely.

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what kind of premium are we referring too? because if its sticker only, then there is no premium unless you want to weigh the facts heavily in favor of a econobox gas option which means the Leaf loses. go against a Prius or any other comparable car and the Leaf wins easily.

now, there is also a "Market Adjustment" which is a dealer added thing. this accounts for differences in cost of living in various parts of the country, but can also be added based on the demand for the car. (hybrids are so popular in WA that many have $3,000-$5,000 added)

now, in most cases a lot of that can be negotiated away. simply stick to your guns. the MSRP does have profit in there for the dealer which will keep them (there are some vague exceptions, especially for rare, hard to get, end of MY cars, etc) from losing any money. now, they will ALWAYS tell you something different but worth a try.

we have a lot of dealer trades which is common since 2012's are being made and for us to have a full lineup we dont have a choice. as it stands we only carry about 80% of the 2012 options. And on some, we get them below invoice, some not.

as far as making 120 volts work for you...not gonna happen. you do not have enough time to recharge. it takes 14-15 hours which means you "could" do it because you do have extra range. slow down to 60 and you should have about 85 miles to play with. but every morning, you will take off with a lower SOC which in itself is not a bad thing since you can still easily make it with 90+%

another thing to realize; when you are paying that much out for a car, you want to take FULL advantage of its strong points. commuting is only a part of the story. the real benefit for me is no longer using the gas car for short errand runs. 3 mile round trips to Safeway, Papa Murphys, etc. those KILL your gas cars performance. the Leaf is made for it.

if you need to charge 14 hours a day, you wont have that option.

@Dave - premium I am referring to is the upfront cost of a Leaf v. a similar ICE model (e.g., Civic or Camry w/ good options)

I am planning on leasing unless someone can convince me otherwise (known depreciation for 3 yrs. & turn it in if it performs worse holding value OR buy at agreed upon amount if it performs better holding value), but market of what i am actually going to be asked to pay in greater Cincinnati is hard to predict since very few have been sold / leased here

@Dave & @Nubo - I agree 120 volts would not work 5 days / week. The advantage I have (mentioned in OP) is that I can simply swap with the 16 yo and take the Audi any time I have uncertainty. His short drives around town and time at home would certainly get me to 100% charge for the next day. Some hassle of swapping cars (and the things that go in them), but I think that can be managed. Of course, L2 charger would solve that.

@aba - don't think I can wait for the TN production (unless I buy the 16 yo a "beater+" and replace the Audi completely with a Leaf when the '13s arrive from Smyrna) and nobody seems to know when production will start (other than late 2012)

@Tony - got the app; very nice; it says I would use 7.2 kWh (34.3%) one way on my commute without any Climate Control kW; how do I figure out CC kW to deduct from that? (I know, probably RTFM); love this alternative to the GOM

@Stoaty - impossible to read my electric bill with all the riders and adjustments, but I think I paid $.0893 / kWH ($99.39 total electric charges for 1,113 kWh in a recent month); I live in KY, so my electricity is almost exclusively from coal (big industry in KY); Leaf would primarily displace a 2001 Audi A8 which gets ~21 mpg the way I drive it, but would get much less (probably ~15 mpg the way it would be used if the Leaf was acquired) the way the 16 yo would drive it, but many fewer miles; suspect I will run 3 scenarios:

A - acquire Leaf & 16 yo gets Audi
B - keep Audi as is and 16 yo gets a "beater" to drive
C - acquire used Prius or similar for my commute & 16 yo gets Audi

NOTE: Would not consider scenario D which would be to acquire Leaf, sell Audi and get 16 yo a "beater" since the sale of the Audi (~$7k?) and acquisition of a "beater" safe enough for 16 yo to drive (~$3.5k?) wouldn't likely justify the 2 transactions and the Audi we "know" v. the "beater" we don't know.

Thanks everyone for the feedback so far and allowing me to "think out loud" here.

i might consider option D to be get used car for Son and Leaf for house. granted, lower miles driven means gas payback will be questionable, but i have to think the miles driven by your Son is subject to change within a few years.

shop around. keep an eye out for reasonably low miles on a compact that gets 35 mpg. i am in the car business and they can be found for reasonable prices. if your Audi is worth $7K then you would only be a little out of pocket. now, granted it will cost more, but i recommend buying used car from reputable new car dealer.

the quality is much higher and most have been gone thru by the service dept to fix or at least check to see if there are any pending issues. any dealership will take trades and on average a good dealer will wholesale about 2/3rds of the trades simply because they can't make money and have a good bet that the car wont fall apart 2-3 months after its sold. those kinds of things dealers avoid because just a very small handful of those types of things can destroy their reputation.

on trade ins we do resell, on average we have to put around $1000-1300 into them before we put them on the lot. if you do decide to do this, ask the manager what they did to get it ready. good dealers are more than willing to provide this info because it helps to justify the price they are charging and remember the price is ALWAYS negotiable!

but anyway...back to the "premium". interested to see your math on that. now, i have an advantage. 1) ridiculous gas prices caused by refinery fire here in Feb that hobbled the 5th largest refinery on the West Coast. last month YOUR gas prices went down by about the same $ as ours went UP.

also have sales tax waiver on EV purchases which basically takes $3000+ off the payback. but if you drive 15,000 miles at 20 mpg and $4 gas that is $3,000 a year in gas verses what i expect would be about $300-350 in electricity in your Leaf.

in 5 years, you are talking $14,000. remember i am in the car business and might be different for you but Camry's with Nav do not sell for under $30K around here

Leasing is a viable option; you can decide later if the car is working out for you or if there is something better on the market in three to four years. And Nissan has announced a new leasing program, for those with the credit to qualify:
http://www.plugincars.com/nissan-announces-leaf-lease-special-rate-289-121874.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SV, $289/month, 39 months @ 12,000 miles per year, $2999 down (I presume that the $7500 federal tax credit supplies the rest of the down payment)

SL, $319/month, 39 months @ 12,000 miles per year, $2999 down