GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:44 pm

smkettner wrote:
GRA wrote:
smkettner wrote:I wonder what the percentage of hydrogen production the hauling would consume.

As the primary purpose of introducing and ultimately requiring ZEV trucks to service the ports is to reduce local air and noise pollution (environmental justice), who cares? The main thing is to reduce diesel and other fossil-fuel emissions, whether from ships (by providing electrical hookups dockside), MHE or truck traffic.
Still it would be sad if half the production was used to haul in the fuel source.

Certainly, but it would be worse to keep using diesel.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:15 pm

Via GCC:
11 Japanese auto, infrastructure and financial companies establishing new company to develop hydrogen stations
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/12/20171212-h2.html

As a result of discussions that began in May 2017, eleven companies in Japan have signed an agreement to form a new company in the spring of 2018 aimed at the full-fledged development of hydrogen recharging stations (HRS) for fuel cell vehicles (FCV). The initial partners include Toyota Motor Corporation; Nissan Motor Co., Ltd.; Honda Motor Co., Ltd.; JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy Corporation; Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd.; Iwatani Corporation; Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd.; Toho Gas Co., Ltd.; Air Liquide Japan Ltd.; Toyota Tsusho Corporation; and Development Bank of Japan Inc. . . .

According to the “Strategic Road Map for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells” (revised 22 March 2016) released by the Council for a Strategy for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells, an industry body organized by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan, in the initial phase of promoting fuel cell vehicles powered by hydrogen, the target penetration is 160 stations and 40,000 fuel cell vehicles by FY 2020. . . .

The new company will take on the following specific initiatives:

    1. Strategic deployment of hydrogen recharging stations. The company will aim to complete its mission in 10 years. During the first four years in Phase 1, the new company intends to target the construction of 80 new stations. To achieve this target, new member companies, extending beyond the current member companies, will be invited to participate.

    The new company will, while taking into account subsidies from the national government and initiatives of local governments, develop its own original “Hydrogen Recharging Station Deployment Plan,” in order to create an environment in which many users can enjoy driving fuel cell vehicles in Japan.

    2. Contribution to efficient hydrogen station operation. By collecting and utilizing information regarding the construction and operation of hydrogen recharging stations through infrastructure developers, which will oversee operations of hydrogen recharging stations, the new company, which will deploy and own stations nationwide, will contribute to efficient operations and other road map objectives. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GetOffYourGas
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:07 am

GRA wrote:Via GCC:
11 Japanese auto, infrastructure and financial companies establishing new company to develop hydrogen stations
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/12/20171212-h2.html

As a result of discussions that began in May 2017, eleven companies in Japan have signed an agreement to form a new company in the spring of 2018 aimed at the full-fledged development of hydrogen recharging stations (HRS) for fuel cell vehicles (FCV). The initial partners include Toyota Motor Corporation; Nissan Motor Co., Ltd.; Honda Motor Co., Ltd.; JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy Corporation; Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd.; Iwatani Corporation; Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd.; Toho Gas Co., Ltd.; Air Liquide Japan Ltd.; Toyota Tsusho Corporation; and Development Bank of Japan Inc. . . .

According to the “Strategic Road Map for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells” (revised 22 March 2016) released by the Council for a Strategy for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells, an industry body organized by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan, in the initial phase of promoting fuel cell vehicles powered by hydrogen, the target penetration is 160 stations and 40,000 fuel cell vehicles by FY 2020. . . .

The new company will take on the following specific initiatives:

    1. Strategic deployment of hydrogen recharging stations. The company will aim to complete its mission in 10 years. During the first four years in Phase 1, the new company intends to target the construction of 80 new stations. To achieve this target, new member companies, extending beyond the current member companies, will be invited to participate.

    The new company will, while taking into account subsidies from the national government and initiatives of local governments, develop its own original “Hydrogen Recharging Station Deployment Plan,” in order to create an environment in which many users can enjoy driving fuel cell vehicles in Japan.

    2. Contribution to efficient hydrogen station operation. By collecting and utilizing information regarding the construction and operation of hydrogen recharging stations through infrastructure developers, which will oversee operations of hydrogen recharging stations, the new company, which will deploy and own stations nationwide, will contribute to efficient operations and other road map objectives. . . .


The running joke (for decades now) has been that Hydrogen is 10 years away. And always will be. It's good to see that is still the case.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:34 pm

Via GCC;
Nel ASA awarded $7.71M for 3 hydrogen fueling stations in Europe
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/12/20171221-nel.html

. . . The first station will continue the success of combining Proton PEM Electrolysis with a Nel H2Station, and follows the $8.3-million contract announced in September for Sunline Transit Agency in California.

This Proton PEM Electrolysis/Nel H2Station fueling solution will be built for NT Bene in Pärnu, Estonia and will have a hydrogen capacity greater than 400 kg/day.

In addition, Uno-X Hydrogen AS, a Nel ASA joint venture, has been awarded a grant from Enova SF, for two hydrogen fueling stations in Akershus, Norway. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:31 am

GRA wrote:Via GCC;
Nel ASA awarded $7.71M for 3 hydrogen fueling stations in Europe
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/12/20171221-nel.html

. . . The first station will continue the success of combining Proton PEM Electrolysis with a Nel H2Station, and follows the $8.3-million contract announced in September for Sunline Transit Agency in California.

This Proton PEM Electrolysis/Nel H2Station fueling solution will be built for NT Bene in Pärnu, Estonia and will have a hydrogen capacity greater than 400 kg/day.

In addition, Uno-X Hydrogen AS, a Nel ASA joint venture, has been awarded a grant from Enova SF, for two hydrogen fueling stations in Akershus, Norway. . . .
Let's calculate the COST (not price) of producing 1 kg of hydrogen (assuming this subsidy covers the entire construction cost for these stations):

Assumptions:
- Cost to build one station: US$2.57M
- Estimated station lifetime: 10 years
- Total production during operating lifetime: 400 kg/day * 365 days/year * 10 years = 1.46M kg of H2 (EXTREMELY OPTIMISTIC ASSUMPTION since it assumes 100% demand and 100% production each and every day with no downtime.)
- O&M expenses during operating lifetime: US$250K/year * 10 years = US$2.5M
- Electricity required to electrolyze 1 kg of H2: 50 kWh
- Electricity required to compress 1 kg of H2: 15 kWh
- Industrial price of electricity in Estonia: 0.0737 EUR/kWh * 1.18 US$/EUR = US$0.087/kWh (EXTREMELY OPTIMISTIC ASSUMPTION since it assumes the industrial price of electricity does not increase above 2016 levels during the next 10 years.)
- Total cost of electricity to hydrolyze and compress 10 years' worth of hydrogen: 1.46M kg * (50 + 15) kWh/kg * US$0.087/kWh = US$8.26M

Optimistic bottom line COST per kg to produce hydrogen using these three stations: (US$2.57M + US$2.5M + US$8.26M) / 1.46M kg = US$9.13/kg

At a per-car consumption rate of approximately 1 kg of H2 each day, these three stations can fuel a fleet of only 1200 cars with this expensive H2. Tesla is threatening to build more Model 3 BEVs than this EACH DAY. Since this fuel is supposed to be used for trucks, buses, and cars, the actual fleet of cars refueled by these stations will be much lower than 1200.

If we assume there is a 1200-H2 FCV car fleet refueled by this infrastructure, each consuming 1 kg of H2 per day and lasting the same 10 years, then we understand that the refueling COST to drive EACH of these vehicles just under 200,000 miles is more than US$33K. The PRICE to the consumer could (and SHOULD) be much higher than that. Of course the goal with H2 is to HIDE costs from the consumer by passing them on to taxpayers instead.

H2 for vehicle fuel is extremely expensive, which makes it nothing more than an unsustainable and environmentally-unfriendly taxpayer-paid subsidy for targeted industries.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:27 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:Via GCC;
Nel ASA awarded $7.71M for 3 hydrogen fueling stations in Europe
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/12/20171221-nel.html

. . . The first station will continue the success of combining Proton PEM Electrolysis with a Nel H2Station, and follows the $8.3-million contract announced in September for Sunline Transit Agency in California.

This Proton PEM Electrolysis/Nel H2Station fueling solution will be built for NT Bene in Pärnu, Estonia and will have a hydrogen capacity greater than 400 kg/day.

In addition, Uno-X Hydrogen AS, a Nel ASA joint venture, has been awarded a grant from Enova SF, for two hydrogen fueling stations in Akershus, Norway. . . .
Let's calculate the COST (not price) of producing 1 kg of hydrogen (assuming this subsidy covers the entire construction cost for these stations):

Assumptions:
- Cost to build one station: US$2.57M
- Estimated station lifetime: 10 years
- Total production during operating lifetime: 400 kg/day * 365 days/year * 10 years = 1.46M kg of H2 (EXTREMELY OPTIMISTIC ASSUMPTION since it assumes 100% demand and 100% production each and every day with no downtime.)
- O&M expenses during operating lifetime: US$250K/year * 10 years = US$2.5M
- Electricity required to electrolyze 1 kg of H2: 50 kWh
- Electricity required to compress 1 kg of H2: 15 kWh
- Industrial price of electricity in Estonia: 0.0737 EUR/kWh * 1.18 US$/EUR = US$0.087/kWh (EXTREMELY OPTIMISTIC ASSUMPTION since it assumes the industrial price of electricity does not increase above 2016 levels during the next 10 years.)
- Total cost of electricity to hydrolyze and compress 10 years' worth of hydrogen: 1.46M kg * (50 + 15) kWh/kg * US$0.087/kWh = US$8.26M

Optimistic bottom line COST per kg to produce hydrogen using these three stations: (US$2.57M + US$2.5M + US$8.26M) / 1.46M kg = US$9.13/kg

At a per-car consumption rate of approximately 1 kg of H2 each day, these three stations can fuel a fleet of only 1200 cars with this expensive H2. Tesla is threatening to build more Model 3 BEVs than this EACH DAY. Since this fuel is supposed to be used for trucks, buses, and cars, the actual fleet of cars refueled by these stations will be much lower than 1200.

If we assume there is a 1200-H2 FCV car fleet refueled by this infrastructure, each consuming 1 kg of H2 per day and lasting the same 10 years, then we understand that the refueling COST to drive EACH of these vehicles just under 200,000 miles is more than US$33K. The PRICE to the consumer could (and SHOULD) be much higher than that. Of course the goal with H2 is to HIDE costs from the consumer by passing them on to taxpayers instead.

H2 for vehicle fuel is extremely expensive, which makes it nothing more than an unsustainable and environmentally-unfriendly taxpayer-paid subsidy for targeted industries.

A good analysis, but I think two of the assumptions you make are questionable:

The first is the price of electricity. As it is, when Denmark dumps excess wind power into Nordpool (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Pool_AS), it can and sometimes does drive electricity spot prices negative (i.e. they have to pay customers to take it), and as they, Germany, Estonia, Sweden etc. all plan to continue increasing the % of wind, actual electricity prices for generating H2 will really depend on whether or not they can tailor production to times when there's excess wind available. Examples of negative pricing occurring:
Danish spot hits negative value for first time
22 December 2009 19:05 Source:ICIS
https://www.icis.com/resources/news/2009/12/22/9321337/danish-spot-hits-negative-value-for-first-time/

Extremely low spot prices in Denmark
High wind power production in Denmark and Germany, high import and limited export possibilities to Sweden and Norway led to very low spot prices in Denmark Monday.

Published 01. May 2017

Monday, the two Danish price areas, DK1 and DK2, are seeing the lowest spot prices since Christmas last year. The average hourly price of the day in DK1 (west of Storebælt) was 5,43 EUR/MWh, while it in the DK2 area (east of Storebælt) was 6,42 EUR/MWh. For seven hours in the middle of the day, between 9 AM and 5 PM, there will be negative hourly prices in both price areas.
http://www.energidanmark.com/market-info/news/news-2017/04/extremely-low-spot-prices-in-denmark/

Second is operating life, and we really just don't know what the economic lifespan of such systems is yet. While most current PEM fuel cells used for vehicles seem to be designed for and assume a loss of no more than about 10% of their power output over a 10 year lifespan, I don't know if that will apply to stationary ones, nor do we know if that is the end of their economic life (since they don't have to move a vehicle, I'd think not). Given all the other assumptions with their attendant uncertainties, I don't think we have enough data to determine with any accuracy what the cost of H2 will be from one of these stations. Certainly something to watch, as we do with say El Hierro.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:03 pm

GRA wrote:A good analysis, but I think two of the assumptions you make are questionable:

The first is the price of electricity.
That price is not an assumption. It is the electricity price in Estonia for commercial customers from 2016. I provided the link to my source. As I said, projecting this number into the future is almost certainly OPTIMISTIC as electricity prices do not go down over time, they go up.
GRA wrote:As it is, when Denmark dumps excess wind powerinto Nordpool (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Pool_AS), it can and sometimes does drive electricity spot prices negative...
It seems that you are confusing prices that the utilities pay for electricity and what CUSTOMERS pay the utility for electricity. No, customers do NOT benefit from negative spot prices for electricity. In fact customers across Europe are faced with ever-increasing electricity bills, largely due to laws which force ratepayers to subsidize renewable energy generators by paying them exhorbitant rates for production, even when they are curtailing production.

In other words, you have thrown out a complete red herring here.
GRA wrote:Second is operating life, and we really just don't know what the economic lifespan of such systems is yet. While most current PEM fuel cells used for vehicles seem to be designed for and assume a loss of no more than about 10% of their power output over a 10 year lifespan, I don't know if that will apply to stationary ones, nor do we know if that is the end of their economic life (since they don't have to move a vehicle, I'd think not).
Fuel cell vehicles run at a very low duty cycle-probably only about 5%. The analysis I gave assumes these PEM hydrolysis units are run 24/7 for the entire 10 years. In other words, these units will have 20X as much operation as an H2 FCV would have during those ten years.

In any case, there was a post upthread with a link in which an H2 site equipment manager discussed the extreme complexity of the system and the amount of maintenance that was required on an ongoing basis. In addition, I have a good friend who provides H2 fuel for Plug Power fuel cells for forklifts. He tells me that these forklifts and/or the filling stations are often non-operational, but that since the H2 FC fleet is a small portion of the warehouse it is not a big deal and that the battery-powered forklifts take up the slack.

Simply put, these H2 delivery systems are extremely complex and very unreliable. In addition, H2 at high pressures is very hard on the materials tasked with containing it. The assumptions that I used that indicate 10 years of continuous service with NO downtime is extremely optimistic. The reality is almost certainly MUCH worse than my projections. I seriously doubt that ANY of the stations which are currently being built will function for 10 years without a complete replacement of virtually every piece of equipment in the system.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:25 pm

The only thing I see missing is PROFIT. Just double the price. Wheels of business do not turn without grease.

Or is this only conceived as a government subsidized supply line? If so then it is doomed from the start.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:03 am

smkettner wrote:The only thing I see missing is PROFIT. Just double the price. Wheels of business do not turn without grease.
As was made clear in my post, the analysis I did only discusses COSTs. Sure, a purveyor of hydrogen can put any price on their product that they choose. But let's not imagine that many people would pay US$20 for one kg of H2 when those same people could pay less money to purchase a BEV and then pay just US$2 for the electricity needed to drive that BEV just as far as one kg of H2 would take an H2 FCV.
smkettner wrote:Or is this only conceived as a government subsidized supply line? If so then it is doomed from the start.
That's my conclusion.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:50 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:A good analysis, but I think two of the assumptions you make are questionable:

The first is the price of electricity.
That price is not an assumption. It is the electricity price in Estonia for commercial customers from 2016. I provided the link to my source. As I said, projecting this number into the future is almost certainly OPTIMISTIC as electricity prices do not go down over time, they go up.
GRA wrote:As it is, when Denmark dumps excess wind powerinto Nordpool (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Pool_AS), it can and sometimes does drive electricity spot prices negative...
It seems that you are confusing prices that the utilities pay for electricity and what CUSTOMERS pay the utility for electricity. No, customers do NOT benefit from negative spot prices for electricity. In fact customers across Europe are faced with ever-increasing electricity bills, largely due to laws which force ratepayers to subsidize renewable energy generators by paying them exhorbitant rates for production, even when they are curtailing production.

In other words, you have thrown out a complete red herring here.

I think you mean that under the current regulatory environment customers don't benefit. What we don't know is whether that will change; negative pricing is certainly passed on to customers in other countries. As it is, most of the countries in Nordpool have very high tax rates for all forms of energy (sometimes to support feed-through tariffs on renewables), and depending on future costs and political decisions that may well alter. We simply don't know.

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:Second is operating life, and we really just don't know what the economic lifespan of such systems is yet. While most current PEM fuel cells used for vehicles seem to be designed for and assume a loss of no more than about 10% of their power output over a 10 year lifespan, I don't know if that will apply to stationary ones, nor do we know if that is the end of their economic life (since they don't have to move a vehicle, I'd think not).
Fuel cell vehicles run at a very low duty cycle-probably only about 5%. The analysis I gave assumes these PEM hydrolysis units are run 24/7 for the entire 10 years. In other words, these units will have 20X as much operation as an H2 FCV would have during those ten years.

Uh huh, and what effect does a constant duty-cycle versus an intermittent one have on longevity, and does the construction of a fixed versus mobile system differ significantly. Again, we lack data.

RegGuheert wrote:In any case, there was a post upthread with a link in which an H2 site equipment manager discussed the extreme complexity of the system and the amount of maintenance that was required on an ongoing basis. In addition, I have a good friend who provides H2 fuel for Plug Power fuel cells for forklifts. He tells me that these forklifts and/or the filling stations are often non-operational, but that since the H2 FC fleet is a small portion of the warehouse it is not a big deal and that the battery-powered forklifts take up the slack.

Simply put, these H2 delivery systems are extremely complex and very unreliable. In addition, H2 at high pressures is very hard on the materials tasked with containing it. The assumptions that I used that indicate 10 years of continuous service with NO downtime is extremely optimistic. The reality is almost certainly MUCH worse than my projections. I seriously doubt that ANY of the stations which are currently being built will function for 10 years without a complete replacement of virtually every piece of equipment in the system.

And the assumptions you use are reasonable for existing systems at an earlier stage of development than those now being installed, or those that will be installed in the future. I've said before that FCs and H2 are still on a much steeper part of the learning curve than batteries, which are often still experiencing their own commercial learning curve issues (e.g. Proterra buses in Park City. You listed a bunch of possible reasons why they may be going unused in cold weather, but we simply don't know which is correct at this time).
Last edited by GRA on Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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