GRA wrote:I've said many times that the price of (sustainable) H2 must be reduced to equal or less than gas if it is to be commercially viable,
Once again, you shift the subject from hydrogen being far more expensive than renewable electric power to hydrogen becoming cheaper than gasoline.
Because that's what I (and the people working with H2) consider is necessary for commercial success, and the relative sales of ICEs vs. BEVs show that to be the case. Electricity is cheaper than gas now many places, so if that were the controlling factor everyone would be voluntarily shifting to BEVs en masse with no subsidies.
WetEV wrote:As there are limits to how much fossil fuel can be used, at some point in the future the price of the gasoline will be higher than all the renewable alternatives. So?
I pay about $1 per gasoline gallon equivalent for renewable electric power today. Sometime in the far future, renewable hydrogen might make it down to $3 per gasoline gallon equivalent. Current price is more like $15 per GGE.
No it isn't. Average price in California is around $15/kg. (Air Products is charging $9.99/kg. at their stations) which at the moment is largely made up of fossil-fuel sourced H2 made via SMR. There will soon be a large renewable H2 production facility under construction here using bio-waste, and there's six stations using on-site electrolysis (the most expensive method, as you'd expect) . As the FCEV sedans are getting 65+ MPGe now, and the typical comparable conventional ICE sedan gets about 30 or so, $15/kg. at the moment is less than half that on a gge basis. Comparing to HEVs it's a lot closer, as the best (Ioniq) gets 58 mpg combined, while the best current FCEV (Clarity) gets 68 combined, or a 17% advantage. But HEVs make up only a small % of the fleet, so the real market that has to be conquered remains conventional ICEs. Remember the DoE ultimate H2 goal is $4/kg, and at $7/kg they consider it $3.50 or less gge, which is below the average price of gas in California at the moment. For more detail on renewable H2 costs, methods and issues, see the report I had linked upthread:
in particular Figure 11 which shows (current) costs of H2 production by the various methods, and Figure 12 which shows current costs of compression, storage and delivery (CSD).
WetEV wrote:Next, you are going to bring up the "surplus solar and wind energy" dodge, so remember to mention that BEVs can do that as well. If solar mid day is basically free, then so is the fuel for my BEV most of the days. And seasonal shifting with fixed fuel cells is likely to be cheaper than fuel cells in cars. BEV wins again.
The 'dodge' is that until mass battery storage becomes affordable, you simply can't afford to store electricity for weeks or months, just hours or maybe a few days. As the wind and sun may not be available for periods much longer than that, I have no problem whatsoever with fixed fuel cells as well, indeed (as mentioned) I believe we'll need multiple approaches t achieve the transition from fossil fuels as quickly as possible. BEVs are great (for local/regional use at the moment) where you've got a guaranteed place to plug-in, and lousy otherwise. Since most drivers world-wide won't have that for decades while the charging infrastructure is built, a mix of other approaches will be necessary. At the moment, I believe that means HEV/PHEV/BEV, with FCHEVs/H2 and bio-fuels bringing up the rear. And now, as we've repeated our usual argument yet again, it's time to let it rest there, and return to new developments/deployments (see next post).