AndyH
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Mon Apr 25, 2016 9:18 am

TimLee wrote:And I thought TVA's "brand new" Watts Bar nuclear was expensive at $7B US for 2 GW.

It was downright cheap compared to Hinkley Point C ;) :D :)

Of course it took 40 years to design and build.
And when they decided to finish it a few years back it was supposed to take $2.5 B US for completion.
It took more than $4B US.

So similar cost overrun issues.

I'm still thanking our lucky stars that the South Texas Project expansion crashed and burned before the backhoes arrived. It was heading along the same trajectory as Hinkley Point and Watts Bar, with a double side of corruption.

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=195007#p195007
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WetEV
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Mon Apr 25, 2016 12:21 pm

TimLee wrote:And I thought TVA's "brand new" Watts Bar nuclear was expensive at $7B US for 2 GW.


Nuclear power usually isn't considered renewable, both for fission or fusion.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Thu May 05, 2016 5:32 pm

Roger Andrews has posted another interesting update on the ongoing operations of the El Hierro hybrid wind/pumped storage system. Some key points:

- February, March and April this year saw the system producing about 50% of the needs of the island.
- The upper reservoir has never been close to full. Perhaps it is due to a lack of desalinated water.
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AndyH
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:09 am



Portugal stopped using coal in 1994, normally runs on about 63% renewable and has run on 100% renewables for 196 hour periods (4.45 days)...





100% electric PassiveHaus in the UK for about GBP1000 per square meter (~$123.56 per square foot) is net energy positive - owners paid annually for excess generation.
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:14 pm

AndyH wrote:Portugal stopped using coal in 1994, normally runs on about 63% renewable and has run on 100% renewables for 196 hour periods (4.45 days)...


Largest source is hydro. BC does better, grid is 99% hydro.

Oh, and if Portugal stopped using coal in 1994, why:

"Portugal’s electricity had 29 percent less coal and 44 percent less gas in it from 2012 figures. The country must import the fossil fuels it burns."

http://www.theenergycollective.com/jose ... t-3-months

Along with lots of other sources showing coal burnt in Portugal to produce electric power since 1994.
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Mon Jul 11, 2016 4:54 am

Roger Andrews at Energy Matters has closely followed the production of El Hierro Island's hybrid wind-hydro electricity-generation system's first year of in-service operation (second year in operation) and has published this detailed report on the results of this year. The bottom line is that the system produced 34.6% of the Island's electricity during this period, with the worst month coming in at 13.5% and the best at 53.9%. An analysis of the best-case possible production from this system indicates that it will never produce over 50% of the island's electricity needs.

These results are quite pitiful when compared with the projections made during the construction of this system:
Roger Andrews wrote:As to what GdV’s goals were, there are three different perspectives. First we have the starry-eyed pronouncements of the mainstream media, who were never in any doubt that GdV was henceforth going to supply all of El Hierro’s energy needs with renewables. GdV is nowhere close to doing this, so the verdict here is FAIL.

Second are two engineering studies carried out before project startup, one of which estimated that GdV would supply 68.4% of El Hierro’s electricity demand with renewables and the other 64.6%. With renewables supplying only 36.4% of El Hierro’s electricity in its first year of operation GdV is falling well short of these projections too. So the verdict up to this point is also FAIL.

Third is the one that counts – the official version of what GdV was supposed to achieve and the one on which the project was marketed and financed. This is set forth in GdV’s project description and reads as follows:

The operation’s philosophy is based on supplying the electrical demand of the island with renewable sources, thus guaranteeing the stability of the electrical network; the diesel engine plant will only operate in exceptional/emergency cases, when there is not enough windwater (sic) to produce the demanded energy.

This is another obvious FAIL. The wording clearly implies that GdV was expected to produce if not 100% renewable energy all the time then something very close to it. In addition, the stability of the electrical network is still not guaranteed and the diesel plant has so far operated for more than 97% of the time, not just in exceptional cases. I hasten to add, however, that I don’t think that GdV’s bloated expectations were an intentional attempt to defraud. They simply illustrate what happens when green energy enthusiasts get carried away with visionary concepts that they do not take the time to evaluate properly, and also the gullibility of the project’s backers, notably the Spanish government, who also never took the time to do their homework before signing the GdV contract. As a result the government paid through the nose for a very modest amount of GdV renewable electricity in 2015 – €12 million for the 8.7 MWh delivered works out to €1.38/kWh – while the El Hierro Island Council, which owns 67% of GdV, is laughing all the way to the bank.
On top of all of this, it seems the El Hierro electricity grid has collapsed five times since this February. Some of this failures appear to be due to high winds.
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WetEV
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Mon Jul 11, 2016 8:52 am

Roger Andrews wrote:Second are two engineering studies carried out before project startup, one of which estimated that GdV would supply 68.4% of El Hierro’s electricity demand with renewables and the other 64.6%. With renewables supplying only 36.4% of El Hierro’s electricity in its first year of operation GdV is falling well short of these projections too. So the verdict up to this point is also FAIL.


Do something for the first time, expect to learn stuff, the hard way. That's not a fail. That is gaining experience.
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GRA
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Mon Jul 11, 2016 4:42 pm

WetEV wrote:
Roger Andrews wrote:Second are two engineering studies carried out before project startup, one of which estimated that GdV would supply 68.4% of El Hierro’s electricity demand with renewables and the other 64.6%. With renewables supplying only 36.4% of El Hierro’s electricity in its first year of operation GdV is falling well short of these projections too. So the verdict up to this point is also FAIL.


Do something for the first time, expect to learn stuff, the hard way. That's not a fail. That is gaining experience.

This is hardly the first time an island has developed its own renewable grid (albeit on a smaller scale), and all the components were well understood and mature, so that's not an excuse either. This seems to be a classic case of unrealistic assumptions and promises, not exactly unknown in the RE field. I used to have to work pretty hard to get people to have more realistic expectations, and Paul Gipe's encountered similar issues in his RE career, which extends a lot longer than mine.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Mon Jul 11, 2016 10:38 pm

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:Do something for the first time, expect to learn stuff, the hard way. That's not a fail. That is gaining experience.

This is hardly the first time an island has developed its own renewable grid (albeit on a smaller scale), and all the components were well understood and mature, so that's not an excuse either.

Maybe. Maybe not. Any other examples of a wind powered grid stabilized with a hydro pumped storage plant?
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RegGuheert
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:58 am

WetEV wrote:Do something for the first time, expect to learn stuff, the hard way. That's not a fail. That is gaining experience.
Utter nonsense. This project is a failure regardless of whether or not anyone learned anything. Here are the stated project objectives again:
Roger Andrews wrote:Third is the one that counts – the official version of what GdV was supposed to achieve and the one on which the project was marketed and financed. This is set forth in GdV’s project description and reads as follows:

The operation’s philosophy is based on supplying the electrical demand of the island with renewable sources, thus guaranteeing the stability of the electrical network; the diesel engine plant will only operate in exceptional/emergency cases, when there is not enough windwater (sic) to produce the demanded energy.
Had the stated objective of the project been to "learn something," then you would be justified in saying it was not a failure.

The project didn't just fail in a small way. It failed so spectacularly, that in October 2015, the system produced less than 1/7 of the electricity needed by the island. That is a VERY LONG WAY from "the diesel engine plant will only operation in exceptional/emergency cases." On top of that, this system certainly is not "guaranteeing the stability of the electrical network."

Given the extremely high per-kWh price of the electricity which is being produced on El Hierro, it seems that several other renewable approaches to powering the island would have cheaper to build and, I suspect, cheaper to operate and maintain.
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