As Nick Chambers pointed out, J.D. Power produced its forecast mostly turning a blind eye to critical market factors, such as likely gasoline costs and government support. To get a contrasting view, I spoke this week with Oliver Hazimeh, director of the global e-Mobility practice at PRTM, a global management consulting firm. PRTM took a more holistic approach in its new forecast, pegging U.S. sales of electric cars and plug-in hybrids at 10 percent of the market by 2020. That’s likely to represent more than 1 million sales per year, or 10 times the number predicted by J.D. Power.
The PRTM forecast for grid-connected cars for 2010 is also about four times the size of today's hybrid market—around 2.5 percent of new car sales. The first hybrid was introduced in the U.S. in December 1999. Many industry analysts look at the speed and size of growth for regular hybrids, like the Toyota Prius, as a logical real-world indicator of how EVs might take hold in the coming decade.
“We’re trying to avoid being stuck in history, and think about other factors that need to be considered going forward—climate change, variability on oil price, and thinking about how much money is flowing into the space for battery technology, etc.,” Oliver told me.
After taking these factors into consideration, Oliver sees an unprecedented alignment of support between consumers, car companies and government officials of all political stripes. That all adds up to faster EV and PHEV adoption than we saw for hybrids.
Five Reasons Why
More specifically, Oliver points to these factors:
* Economics of scale on battery production reducing the cost of batteries by 50 percent in just a few years.
* Electric cars benefiting from consumer understanding and adoption of conventional hybrids. “Prius has greased the skids,” Oliver said. “We’re not starting from scratch.”
* Automakers marketing EVs more aggressively than hybrids were marketed. Hybrids were barely advertised in the early years. By contrast, as we’ve already seen, automakers are putting big ad dollars behind their electric cars.
* In addition, the marketing messages will shift to appeal to much wider consumer base. “It goes beyond green,” Oliver said. “These are smart cars. They will be connected cars. They have a high-tech flair to it. So I think they will appeal to a broad audience, more than just about green.”
* There will be greater consumer choice for grid-connected vehicles than there have been for hybrids. The Prius still outsells all other hybrids combined. Expect a wider and more competitive field for EVs.
Bear in mind that PRTM believes that while sales of plug-in cars will rise to 10 percent of the market by 2020, sales of conventional hybrids—ones without a plug—will grow to 20 percent in the next decade. All told, electric-drive vehicles will make up nearly 1 out of 3 sales in 2020, according to PRTM.
