garsh
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Tue Jun 07, 2016 3:51 am

edatoakrun wrote:Which is why I doubt that Tesla will ever offer "free...forever" charging for the 3, at any price.

That's a bold prediction. Musk has already stated during the May 31 shareholder meeting that "free-forever supercharging" would be offered for the 3 in some package, so it would be a huge about-face for Tesla to not offer it at this point.
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edatoakrun
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Tue Jun 07, 2016 8:36 am

garsh wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:Which is why I doubt that Tesla will ever offer "free...forever" charging for the 3, at any price.

That's a bold prediction. Musk has already stated during the May 31 shareholder meeting that "free-forever supercharging" would be offered for the 3 in some package, so it would be a huge about-face for Tesla to not offer it at this point.

DC charging was never "free...forever" for any Tesla.

It was and is a pre-paid program with the cost imbedded in the vehicle's sales price, lasting for the ~10 year expected life of the car, allowing unlimited access without any usage fee when charging.

As others have speculated, Tesla may offer some sort of pre-pay option for its BEVs in the future, but I doubt it will continue to offer the current scheme it calls "free...forever" for any BEV, particularly those with a ~less-than-$100k-per-vehicle sales price

"Free...forever" charging would guarantee chaos at charge stations after Tesla BEV sales began to reach significant levels, as has been confirmed by various Tesla statements, including those in the video posted on the previous page.
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garsh
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Tue Jun 07, 2016 3:06 pm

edatoakrun wrote:
garsh wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:Which is why I doubt that Tesla will ever offer "free...forever" charging for the 3, at any price.
That's a bold prediction. Musk has already stated during the May 31 shareholder meeting that "free-forever supercharging" would be offered for the 3 in some package, so it would be a huge about-face for Tesla to not offer it at this point.

DC charging was never "free...forever" for any Tesla. It was and is a pre-paid program with the cost imbedded in the vehicle's sales price
And your quote was "at any price". If somebody buys a 3 "at any price", and is able to charge the car for free forever from that point on, you can't just say it doesn't count because the vehicle's price covers Tesla's costs. What in the world did your original prediction mean in that case?
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edatoakrun
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:26 pm

garsh wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:
garsh wrote:That's a bold prediction. Musk has already stated during the May 31 shareholder meeting that "free-forever supercharging" would be offered for the 3 in some package, so it would be a huge about-face for Tesla to not offer it at this point.

DC charging was never "free...forever" for any Tesla. It was and is a pre-paid program with the cost imbedded in the vehicle's sales price
And your quote was "at any price". If somebody buys a 3 "at any price", and is able to charge the car for free forever from that point on, you can't just say it doesn't count because the vehicle's price covers Tesla's costs. What in the world did your original prediction mean in that case?

If you read my entire post, rather than quoting a single sentence out of context, I think the meaning is clear:

edatoakrun wrote:Tesla has always understood that it will have to have pay-per-use for charge stations, that "free...forever" charging was a marketing gimmick, and that would only be available for a limited number of buyers.

Where TSLA was delusional, IMO, was in it's contention that electricity would remain cheap, and it could afford to subsidize "free...forever" charging until it sold ~ a million BEVs, both of which you can hear about at ~13 minute into this Video of JB Straubel, Chief Technology Officer, Tesla Motors:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnQs1k_0Yys

Tesla never understood the reality of time-of-use Home charge pricing For BEV drivers, which will probably be almost all BEV drivers, within a few years.

I am on PG&E E6 smart rate, as I expect are quite a few Northern California Tesla owners.

We will be paying over $.90 per kWh this afternoon, from 2 until 7 PM, or close to $100 for a full charge for a tesla owner.

"Free" public charging would be a congestion disaster during peak demand periods, once more BEV driver's rates are rationalized for actual costs per kWh, and even more so if Tesla is unable to maintain its current prohibition on its BEVs vehicle-to-grid use.

Which is why I doubt that Tesla will ever offer "free...forever" charging for the 3, at any price.

Yes, TSLA could impose any level of complexity to regulations on public chargers to limit their use.

But the reality is, no method of rationing is as efficient as market pricing.

Something Tesla definitely seems to understand, when pricing its vehicles...

I could be wrong of course, and Tesla might offer model 3 owners the same unlimited "free...forever" program as an option, that it currently makes a mandatory purchase for S and X buyers.

Since it is a mandatory purchase, the S and X owners who make little use of the DC network but are forced to pay for "free...forever" anyway, are subsidizing the S and X owners who draw a lot of kWh from the charge sites.

But Tesla has said it will allow 3 owners to opt-out of the "free...forever" program, so the cash source for this subsidy will not exist for the model 3, and Tesla would have to charge something close to the actual cost for the "free...forever" program, for those 3 owners who choose to buy into it.

And since that actual cost could be thousands of dollars per year for 3 owners who drive a lot and charge frequently during peak demand periods, the option would have to be very expensive to cover charging over the life of the vehicle, probably $10k to $20k if Tesla wants to recover its costs.

Few 3 buyers are likely to want to pay that much for the opton, when they can arrange to do most of their 3's charging much more cheaply wherever the car is parked during off-peak hours, and pay to use DC chargers only when they need to, instead.

Which is why I doubt that Tesla will ever offer "free...forever" charging for the 3, at any price.
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:31 pm

edatoakrun wrote:I could be wrong of course, and Tesla might offer model 3 owners the same unlimited "free...forever" program as an option, that it currently makes a mandatory purchase for S and X buyers.

Since it is a mandatory purchase, the S and X owners who make little use of the DC network but are forced to pay for "free...forever" anyway, are subsidizing the S and X owners who draw a lot of kWh from the charge sites.

But Tesla has said it will allow 3 owners to opt-out of the "free...forever" program, so the cash source for this subsidy will not exist for the model 3, and Tesla would have to charge something close to the actual cost for the "free...forever" program, for those 3 owners who choose to buy into it.

And since that actual cost could be thousands of dollars per year for 3 owners who drive a lot and charge frequently during peak demand periods, the option would have to be very expensive to cover charging over the life of the vehicle, probably $10k to $20k if Tesla wants to recover its costs.

Few 3 buyers are likely to want to pay that much for the opton, when they can arrange to do most of their 3's charging much more cheaply wherever the car is parked during off-peak hours, and pay to use DC chargers only when they need to, instead.

Which is why I doubt that Tesla will ever offer "free...forever" charging for the 3, at any price.


If they charge $2500 for supercharger access, that is roughly 62,500 freeway miles worth of driving assuming $0.10/kWh and 400wH/mile. I think most folks are going to put the majority of their miles close to home and charge from home, so that is a lot of road trips for each of those cars. I see your point and you'll get some folks who will game the system and work hard at trying to get free electricity. I'm sure Tesla can come up with some clever rules that keep these folks from using the Supercharger as a daily fill-up.

I keep seeing people talk about pay per use at supercharger, but I've seen ZERO evidence that they have any plans to do this (and I follow supercharger news very closely). I'm not sure how it got started or why it keeps getting repeated, but all statements from Tesla indicate that they want to keep the same business model where there is no transaction when you charge. Perhaps instead of a lifetime fee, they will have a yearly fee, I'm not sure, but I'm pretty confident there will not be a pay per use plan, though I could very will be wrong.
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garsh
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Wed Jun 08, 2016 2:12 am

edatoakrun wrote:If you read my entire post, rather than quoting a single sentence out of context, I think the meaning is clear:
I don't see how the context changes anything. You put together an argument that it would be foolish of Tesla to offer "free forever" charging as an option, and then conclude that they won't offer it. Did I get that much right, or am I missing some other nuance?

The Model 3 page says that it will have supercharging. At the shareholders meeting, Musk said that the base model 3 would not come with "free charging", and that you would only get "free forever" charging by purchasing the package. So it sounds exactly like Tesla plans to offer "free forever" charging, as an option, for the Model 3.
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:25 am

I wonder is unlimited charging will end up being like "unlimited" internet access on my cell phone: You get a certain amount each month at the maximum speed and thereafter it slows down significantly.
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:39 am

edatoakrun wrote:I am on PG&E E6 smart rate, as I expect are quite a few Northern California Tesla owners.

We will be paying over $.90 per kWh this afternoon, from 2 until 7 PM, or close to $100 for a full charge for a tesla owner.
This type of pricing is precisely what will cause schemes like "Electric Vehicle Net Metering" to come about. Put another way, it is precisely BEVs with large batteries which will allow generation to be balanced with load. It seems to me that utilities are working hard to drive themselves out of business while using regulatory power to try to save themselves.

It won't work, but it could be painful for ratepayers in the short run.
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:30 am

palmermd wrote:
I keep seeing people talk about pay per use at supercharger, but I've seen ZERO evidence that they have any plans to do this (and I follow supercharger news very closely). I'm not sure how it got started or why it keeps getting repeated, but all statements from Tesla indicate that they want to keep the same business model where there is no transaction when you charge. Perhaps instead of a lifetime fee, they will have a yearly fee, I'm not sure, but I'm pretty confident there will not be a pay per use plan, though I could very will be wrong.


FWIW, when I talk about pay-per-use, it is just because, IMO, it is a better option. It solves many of the problems that have come up with crowding (and the Model III will worsen). It opens the door to Tesla owners willingly paying to support other charging networks (which Tesla itself may or may not want - but would be good for EVs as a whole). It is also better for the utilities, discouraging people from "topping off" for free and high rates during peak hours (e.g. on their evening commute), but encourages them to fill up slowly overnight during off-peak hours.

I have never heard direct word from Tesla that they will be moving in this direction, though. So it will be interesting to see what happens when the Model IIIs start to outnumber the Model S/Xs.
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:38 am

garsh wrote:... it sounds exactly like Tesla plans to offer "free forever" charging, as an option, for the Model 3.

Why do you believe that?

There is plenty of wiggle room in Musk's statement to add more restrictions to an "(limited) unlimited" charge option "package" for the 3, making it far less comprehensive than the current "(not) free (not)forever" program payment embedded in the price of every S and X sold.

“Free supercharging fundamentally has a cost,” Musk, 44, said Tuesday during Tesla’s annual shareholders meeting, held at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, Calif. “The obvious thing to do is decouple that from the cost of the Model 3. So it will still be very cheap, and far cheaper than gasoline, to drive long-distance with the Model 3, but it will not be free long distance for life unless you purchase that package.”

Musk did not provide further details as to what the package may cost consumers...

http://www.autonews.com/article/2016060 ... erchargers
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