garsh
Posts: 1061
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 5:27 am
Delivery Date: 05 Apr 2012
Location: Pittsburgh PA

Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Wed Jun 08, 2016 12:13 pm

edatoakrun wrote:There is plenty of wiggle room in Musk's statement to add more restrictions to an "(limited) unlimited" charge option "package" for the 3, making it far less comprehensive than the current "(not) free (not)forever" program payment embedded in the price of every S and X sold.
OK, I think I understand what you're saying now. They'll call it "free for life", but it'll have additional limitations compared to what's currently being offered.
2012 Black SV w. G35 wheels, 9 bars, 85,000 miles

edatoakrun
Posts: 4648
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:57 am

Sounds like TSLA is getting ready to announce the end of "free" DC charging, after selling only a small fraction of the ~million BEVs that JB Straubel, Chief Technology Officer, Tesla Motors, suggested it could last year.

However, I'm very skeptical of the suggestion below that TSLA will ever allow anyone to use its chargers, without first buying a Tesla, or at least paying a huge initiation fee to join the country club:

Tesla to introduce new ‘Supercharger Credit’ system to reduce entry price of Model S & X

Earlier this week, Tesla updated its website with a payment option to buy ‘Supercharger credits’ hidden in the source code of the ‘MyTesla’ page of Model S and X owners, and even Model 3 reservation holders.

Tesla quickly reverted the update and refused to comment on the temporary change despite several requests from Electrek. Now sources with knowledge of the new program confirmed new details about its upcoming rollout…

Sources familiar with the program have told Electrek that Tesla is about to introduce a new Supercharger Credit program to unbundle the cost of Supercharger access from the vehicle and consequently, lower the entry price of the Model S and X while ensuring that the value of the Supercharger network is better represented by the pricing model...

The move to ‘Supercharger Credits’ could also facilitate the access to the network to electric vehicles from other manufacturers. Tesla CEO Elon Musk always said that he was open to sharing the network with other automakers, but he also said that they would need to contribute to the cost of the network proportionally to the usage of their vehicle fleet.

This new program will allow them to do just that fairly easily. Tesla could sell a Chademo/SAE DC adapter that would work with other vehicles and could be tied to a credit card as well. This could be a huge market for Tesla who is already years in front of the competition in terms of charging...

https://electrek.co/2016/09/02/tesla-su ... model-s-x/

edatoakrun wrote: (6/3/16)

Tesla has always understood that it will have to have pay-per-use for charge stations, that "free...forever" charging was a marketing gimmick, and that would only be available for a limited number of buyers.

Where TSLA was delusional, IMO, was in it's contention that electricity would remain cheap, and it could afford to subsidize "free...forever" charging until it sold ~ a million BEVs, both of which you can hear about at ~13 minute into this Video of JB Straubel, Chief Technology Officer, Tesla Motors:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnQs1k_0Yys

Tesla never understood the reality of time-of-use Home charge pricing For BEV drivers, which will probably be almost all BEV drivers, within a few years.

I am on PG&E E6 smart rate, as I expect are quite a few Northern California Tesla owners.

We will be paying over $.90 per kWh this afternoon, from 2 until 7 PM, or close to $100 for a full charge for a tesla owner.

"Free" public charging would be a congestion disaster during peak demand periods, once more BEV driver's rates are rationalized for actual costs per kWh, and even more so if Tesla is unable to maintain its current prohibition on its BEVs vehicle-to-grid use.

Which is why I doubt that Tesla will ever offer "free...forever" charging for the 3, at any price.

Yes, TSLA could impose any level of complexity to regulations on public chargers to limit their use.

But the reality is, no method of rationing is as efficient as market pricing.

Something Tesla definitely seems to understand, when pricing its vehicles...
no condition is permanent

edatoakrun
Posts: 4648
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Sun Oct 16, 2016 12:15 pm

Selected comments, below about the wonders of restricted use free superchargers.

And why we all should expect to be Tesla'd, sooner or later, at public CHAdeMO sites:

If you think this is bad, wait until the Model 3s start hitting the road. I really hope Tesla has a solution to this problem before it becomes one.

It already is a problem in california. Any sort of weekend holiday results in wait lines at superchargers, and the wait is in hours.

We need a paid alternative, so the supply and demand economics can give us the chargers we need. Right now we central planning.
Its called Chademo


...I take my ICE when I drive to the Bay Area because I can't do the round trip without charging, but Fremont, MtView, Dublin have become virtually unusable.

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/co ... h=b16c9165
no condition is permanent

GRA
Posts: 7365
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Sun Oct 16, 2016 3:38 pm

edatoakrun wrote:Selected comments, below about the wonders of restricted use free superchargers.

And why we all should expect to be Tesla'd, sooner or later, at public CHAdeMO sites:

If you think this is bad, wait until the Model 3s start hitting the road. I really hope Tesla has a solution to this problem before it becomes one.

It already is a problem in california. Any sort of weekend holiday results in wait lines at superchargers, and the wait is in hours.

We need a paid alternative, so the supply and demand economics can give us the chargers we need. Right now we central planning.
Its called Chademo


...I take my ICE when I drive to the Bay Area because I can't do the round trip without charging, but Fremont, MtView, Dublin have become virtually unusable.

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/co ... h=b16c9165

Good thing Tesla's building more SCs along I-5 in the San Joaquin Valley (Santa Nella's currently under construction, and it's expected they'll probably add Kettleman City and/or Lost Hills to Harris Ranch, Buttonwillow, Bakersfield-Stockdale, and Lebec), because they'll need them. Fremont #2's 20 SC stalls have been sitting dormant all year, waiting for the interior of the building to be completed. Santa Nella will help reduce the load on Gilroy, Dublin and Fremont, and maybe Manteca (When I drove by coming back from Yosemite on a Sunday afternoon in August all 8 slots were full, with cars waiting). They still need to thicken up I-5 north of Sacramento, if for no other reason to shorten the Manteca-Corning leg. and they really need to put limits on local SC use for the cheap at heart, i.e. only those who can't charge at home or work get unlimited use. Still, Tesla's had to build 10 SC sites around Beijing, and Hong Kong and Shanghai are similarly supplied, so urban areas with lots of condos/apartment dwellers here may well need the same provisions.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

User avatar
keydiver
Posts: 1051
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:04 pm
Delivery Date: 08 Dec 2011
Leaf Number: 16484
Location: Hobe Sound, Florida
Contact: Website

Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Mon Oct 17, 2016 8:25 pm

I hope that you understand that clogged SC's is pretty much a California-only problem. I just traveled 3600 miles up and down the East Coast in the past 2.5 weeks in my 70D, never saw more than 2 other Teslas charging at any SC, never had to wait or share power with another Tesla, and never had another Tesla waiting for me to finish. I probably visited 20 or more SC's in 9 or 10 states, and never had an issue. EV adoption in CA is WAY above the US average, so I don't think anecdotal stories about crowding at SC's or TOU pricing in CA have much relevance to most buyers.
2012 Glacier Pearl SL - Delivered December 8, 2011
10kW Solar PV for recharging!
2006 Prius with Hymotion 5kWh PHEV upgrade
Tesla 70D | Titanium Metallic | Matte Obeche Wood Décor| All Glass Panoramic Roof
Tesla Model 3 Pre-Ordered!

edatoakrun
Posts: 4648
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Tue Oct 18, 2016 8:52 am

keydiver wrote:I hope that you understand that clogged SC's is pretty much a California-only problem...

Yes, long waits for "free...forever" superchargers is now a problem, and will only be a problem in the future, in regions where Tesla actually sells a significant number of cars.

Where it will inevitably fail to deliver reliable charging.

As to costs, "free...forever" is already a failure, at every supercharger site.

Some of the highest-cost kWh anywhere in the world are those delivered at supercharger sites in regions Tesla sells few cars, but has, for promotional regions, placed propriety charge sites.
no condition is permanent

finman100
Posts: 276
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 10:42 am
Delivery Date: 06 Jun 2014
Location: Albany, OR

Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:37 am

solution: just don't buy a Tesla.

there. sorted. now you don't have to worry about this.

The rest of us are quite a bit less worried when we do go Tesla, since it is many times better than having broken/inop Chademos, with ONE connector per location. THAT is a bigger worry.
Albany, Oregon
2014 Silver SV with charge/LED package. June 2014, I'm in the EV game!
40,200 miles
18.5 kWh on 100% charge (54-ish Ah)
4.2 miles/kWh average
Best trip: all of 'em. They're all no-gas!

GRA
Posts: 7365
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:31 pm

keydiver wrote:I hope that you understand that clogged SC's is pretty much a California-only problem. I just traveled 3600 miles up and down the East Coast in the past 2.5 weeks in my 70D, never saw more than 2 other Teslas charging at any SC, never had to wait or share power with another Tesla, and never had another Tesla waiting for me to finish. I probably visited 20 or more SC's in 9 or 10 states, and never had an issue. EV adoption in CA is WAY above the US average, so I don't think anecdotal stories about crowding at SC's or TOU pricing in CA have much relevance to most buyers.

While true now, once the Model 3 arrives this may no longer be an 'only in California' problem. Even if California takes 50% of them, that still leaves maybe 100k+ for the rest of the country if all the reservations in the U.S. are taken up. Even 50k would impact major routes like I-95. Many of them won't opt for the 'all-you-can-eat' package; whether that will be enough to avoid the problem, especially on holiday weekends, remains to be seen. This thread on tmc tracks the ratio between SC stalls and cars quarterly by country: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ats.75640/

At the end of Q3, while the U.S. as a whole had 45.2 cars per SC stall, in California the ratio was 100.3.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Zythryn
Posts: 941
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:53 pm

GRA wrote:While true now, once the Model 3 arrives this may no longer be an 'only in California' problem. ...

That is certainly a possiblitly it is also a possibility that it won't be. Or even that it isn't a problem in CA at that time either.

The challenge is building enough superchargers to support the region they are in.
Even in CA, the overcrowding is not state wide.

Can they build enough? I don't know.

But years ago, many around here were convinced Tesla would never survive to release the Model S, that the X would never see the light of day, that SC would bankrupt the company and many other doom and gloom.

Rather than rooting against Tesla, I'm enjoying their product, and cautiously optimistic that they can do what they say.
GRA, I know you aren't one of those, but they know who they are :)
Previous owner of Prius, Volt & Leaf
Current owner of Model S
http://www.netzeromn.com

smkettner
Posts: 6999
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2010 10:13 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2014
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:03 pm

I thought the idea was free for long distance travel. I do wonder how many spots are filled with locals. I would be all for Tesla adding a fee for locals living within 100 miles of the station. I could also see a fee for occupying a spot for over 60 or 90 minutes. The model will eventually require this even if the first owners remain exempt.

The business model is to reach critical mass or self sustaining business asap.... before the money runs out.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV

Return to “Business / Economy and Politics”