When will we have the "tobacco moment" on vehicle emissions?

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edatoakrun

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CNBC wonders if it is now, in the article below, with videos at the link.

I'm sure many of you have noticed how otherwise rational people seem so dependent on their vehicles, that they are more or less blind to the harm they are doing when they drive them.

I'd include many BEV drivers in this group as well, though the harm caused by most BEVs under most conditions, is much less than for most all ICEV's.

This is, IMO, an addictive behavior that has been greatly reinforced by many vehicle manufactures touting their ICEVs (including hybrids and diesels) as "clean" or "green".

So, is this the moment of realization, when corporate denialism will collapse, resulting in real changes in public policy?

Will there ever be one?

Volkswagen emissions: Automakers’ tobacco moment?

The decimation of share prices across the autos industry this week highlights growing concerns that Volkswagen's problem could quickly turn into one for the entire carmaking industry.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has accused Volkswagen of installing a device in its diesel vehicles to run maximum anti-pollution controls only when emissions tests were taking place. VW has admitted the mistake and apologised, with its U.S. boss, Michael Horn, saying the company had "totally screwed up."

No other car manufacturers have officially been accused of this kind of behavior. However, the light shone on what Volkswagen was trying to sell as emission-reducing cars, which were in fact pumping more nitrogen dioxide (NOx) into the air than thought, could be uncomfortable for others.

The scandal should be "a massive wake up call to governments and regulators around the world," Friends of the Earth air pollution campaigner Jenny Bates told CNBC.

"More than fifty thousand people die early every year in the UK due to our illegally filthy air. Vehicle pollution is the main problem, with diesel vehicles the biggest culprit. Tough pollution standards are crucial for cleaning up our sub-standard air quality – which is why an urgent investigation is needed to ensure that the motor industry is complying with EU regulations."

Even given the drastic share price falls, investors are likely to stay away from the automobile sector for a while as they wonder which company will be next...

Yet the fallout could be even worse than feared, if it emerges that the problem of promoting cars as more environmentally friendly than they are goes beyond Volkswagen...

This kind of industry-wide problem is sometimes called a "tobacco moment" after the cigarette industry's early denials of the links between smoking and lung cancer, which eventually proved futile...
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/24/volkswagen-emissions-automakers-tobacco-moment.html

9/25/15, title edited for clarity
 
edatoakrun said:
I'm sure many of you have noticed how otherwise rational people seem so dependent on their vehicles, that they are more or less blind to the harm they are doing when they drive them.

I'd include many BEV drivers in this group as well, though the harm caused by most BEVs under most conditions, is much less than for most all ICEV's.
I don't disagree with you, but it seems that your repeated range tests of your Leaf would be doing the same harm.
 
This summary of how widespread cheating by diesel ICEV manufacturers is in Europe, names some prime suspects for defeat devices from other manufactures

VW’s cheating is just the tip of the iceberg.

..Diesel cars are niche in the US, and in most of the rest of the world, representing just one in 7 cars sold worldwide. The VW recall is not large by global standards. But in Europe over half of new cars are diesels – 7.5 million of the 10 million sold globally last year were bought in Europe. There is strong evidence that similar illegal devices are also used in Europe by both VW and other manufacturers. Since 2009 (when VW began using defeat devices) over 40 million diesel cars have been sold in Europe, a sixth of all cars on the road today.

Over the past three years, Transport & Environment (T&E), with the support of the International Council on Clean Transportation (that alerted US authorities to its concerns over VW), has exposed countless ways carmakers manipulate emissions tests for both air pollution and CO2 emissions (fuel economy).

...for some models the gap is so large T&E suspects that the car is able to detect when it is tested using a “defeat device” and artificially lowers emissions during the test. For example: a diesel Audi A8 tested in Europe produced nitrogen oxide emissions 21.9 times over the legal limit on the road; a BMW X3 diesel was 9.9 times over the limit on the road; an Opal Zafira Tourer, 9.5 times; Citroen C4 Picasso 5.1 times. All these vehicles passed the laboratory test.

Through trickery, the gap between official fuel economy figures and those achieved by an average driver have grown to 40%. For new diesel cars nitrogen oxide emissions are typically five times higher on the road than the allowed limit and just one in 10 cars meets the required level on the road.

...But given the powerful anecdotal evidence, why haven’t European authorities undertaken similar tests to their US equivalents? Regrettably, the European system of testing is much less independent and robust than that in the US where 10-15% of new models are retested by the US authorities in their own laboratories...
http://www.transportenvironment.org/publications/vw%E2%80%99s-cheating-just-tip-iceberg

Since even the EPA missed VW's cheating, new testing is being proposed:


EPA to Overhaul Air-Emissions Testing in Wake of Volkswagen Cheating Revelation

New testing aims to detect types of software Volkswagen used


WASHINGTON—The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is overhauling the way it polices auto-maker compliance with air-emissions standards after Volkswagen cheated on its testing for seven years, an agency official said Friday.

The EPA is sending a letter to auto manufacturers to explain that it may test or require testing of vehicles in an environment that would resemble normal driving conditions, the official said.

The EPA’s current protocol doesn’t test under real-word driving conditions, and requires auto makers instead to submit design certificates for compliance. The EPA has conducted random testing, but those are done in a controlled environment. Volkswagen had installed software designed to evade those tests.

Since at least 2008, Volkswagen has been using software, dubbed defeat devices, in several light-duty diesel models around the world—nearly a half-million cars in the U.S. and as many as 11 million world-wide—that disabled air-emissions controls under normal driving conditions.

The EPA’s announcement Friday caps a tumultuous week for Volkswagen, whose CEO resigned following the revelations, and for the U.S. government, which scrambled to respond to the German auto maker’s cheating...

It wasn’t immediately clear Friday how comprehensive the new testing in normal driving conditions would be. Some experts have been calling on the agency to conduct such testing.

“The most important change that could take place is if EPA started incorporating real-world testing throughout their compliance process,” said Drew Kodjak, executive director of the International Council on Clean Transportation, a nonprofit research organization. The organization, alongside West Virginia University researchers, uncovered the testing anomalies in two Volkswagen model cars in 2014.

“The agency certainly has the authority to do this type of thing, but typically doesn’t do them because, frankly, they’re quite expensive,” Mr. Kodjak said on Thursday...
http://www.wsj.com/articles/epa-to-overhaul-air-emissions-testing-in-wake-of-volkswagen-cheating-revelation-1443187913

I expect many gasoline-fueled ICEVs (and maybe some hybrids and PHEVs) could also fail to match current "controlled environment" EPA test results, if and when they are subject to "normal driving condition" testing.
 
Someone explain to me, after decades of examples of automakers repeatedly gaming the tests and/or outright cheating, exactly why should we still allow the automakers to control emission and fuel economy testing?


VW emissions violations put self-certification under new scrutiny

Experts fault EPA system, disagree on solution


In the wake of Volkswagen Group's violations, some environmentalists are calling on the EPA to bring vehicle emissions and fuel economy testing in house.

WASHINGTON -- The Volkswagen diesel scandal has exposed holes in the U.S. emissions testing regime, prompting regulators to launch new tests to check for possible VW-style cheating at other automakers.

It's also prompting a second look at the principle of self-certification, the streamlined system by which automakers and regulators work to ensure compliance with federal clean-air laws. Experts say VW's malfeasance underscores the risks associated with this trust-but-verify approach to emissions regulation, though they disagree on the solution.

Dan Becker, director of the Safe Climate Campaign and a longtime proponent of tougher environmental rules for autos, says the EPA needs to bring vehicle emissions and fuel economy testing in house.

"With little spot-checking, the government accepts the results" submitted by automakers, Becker wrote in an op-ed in USA Today last week. The EPA "must take complete control of the tests."

Under current procedures, the EPA certifies that new vehicles comply with emissions rules by signing off on test data submitted by automakers, which run the vehicles through the agency's prescribed testing cycle in their own labs. The EPA audits a small portion of new vehicles each year and has several other means to ensure compliance.

But despite those checks, and the penalties for automakers that flout the rules, VW was able to evade federal regulators for more than six years by installing software on some 482,000 diesel-powered vehicles that ran a different set of emissions controls when the vehicles were in test mode...
http://www.autonews.com/article/20151004/OEM11/310059955/vw-emissions-violations-put-self-certification-under-new-scrutiny

I wonder what it would do to car and truck sales, if all vehicles were required to have window stickers with D/M ratings printed on them?

Deaths
caused by vehicle emissions for every million miles driven.

Off-topic, but IMO we should take the MPG testing out of the Automakers' control, also.

And for BEVs and PHEVs the MPGe and battery kWh capacity testing should not be subject to either misrepresentation or gaming by the manufacturers, examples of which have already occurred.
 
Not in my lifetime, I suspect. Just like the Toyota, Audi, and GM issues before them, this will likely be forgotten by the public in five or so years...

edatoakrun said:
So, is this the moment of realization, when corporate denialism will collapse, resulting in real changes in public policy?
Will there ever be one?
 
I haven't seen similar reports of real-world testing of US market diesel ICEVs, but I'd be surprised if the don't ask, don't tell policy the EPA employs on actual emissions in real-world conditions would not show some (at least) discrepancies from the EPA's official test-cycle results.

Nor have gasoline fueled ICEVs actual emissions (AFAIK) been subjected to similar scrutiny anywhere...yet.

Four more carmakers join diesel emissions row

Mercedes-Benz, Honda, Mazda and Mitsubishi have joined the growing list of manufacturers whose diesel cars are known to emit significantly more pollution on the road than in regulatory tests, according to data obtained by the Guardian.

In more realistic on-road tests, some Honda models emitted six times the regulatory limit of NOx pollution while some unnamed 4x4 models had 20 times the NOx limit coming out of their exhaust pipes.

“The issue is a systemic one” across the industry, said Nick Molden, whose company Emissions Analytics tested the cars. The Guardian revealed last week that diesel cars from Renault, Nissan, Hyundai, Citroen, Fiat, Volvo and Jeep all pumped out significantly more NOx in more realistic driving conditions. NOx pollution is at illegal levels in many parts of the UK and is believed to have caused many thousands of premature deaths and billions of pounds in health costs.

All the diesel cars passed the EU’s official lab-based regulatory test (called NEDC), but the test has failed to cut air pollution as governments intended because carmakers designed vehicles that perform better in the lab than on the road. There is no evidence of illegal activity, such as the “defeat devices” used by Volkswagen...

“These new test results [from Emissions Analytics] prove that the Volkswagen scandal is just the tip of the iceberg. What we are seeing here is a dieselgate that covers many brands and many different car models,” said Greg Archer, an emissions expert at Transport & Environment. “The only solution is a strict new test that takes place on the road and verified by an authority not paid by the car industry.”
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/09/mercedes-honda-mazda-mitsubishi-diesel-emissions-row
 
Premature to call out the lynch mob, but IMO it doesn't look too good for GM.

Who would have thunk there could possibly be more than I cheater?

Despite Barra’s Denials, GM Diesel Test Results Indicate VW-Style Cheating

October 23, 2015 By Edward Niedermeyer

We’ve suspected for some time that more automakers would be caught up in the Volkswagen emissions cheating scandal, and the first new perpetrator has apparently been identified: General Motors. GM CEO Mary Barra’s insists that VW-style software cheating on emissions tests “is not a condition that exists in our vehicles,” but the German environmental group Umwelthilfe has sponsored tests that throw that claim into serious doubt [English press release in PDF format here].

In testing of the Opel Zafira 1.6 CDTi, performed at the Bern University of Applied Sciences, GM’s diesel engine passed NEDC cycle NOx tests performed on a two-wheel (single-axle) rolling road but emitted two to four times the Euro6 limit for NOx when the same test was performed on a four-wheel rolling road. This strongly indicates that a software “test mode” exists for this engine...
http://dailykanban.com/2015/10/despite-barras-denials-gm-diesel-test-results-indicate-vw-style-cheating/

See also:

http://dailykanban.com/2015/10/dieselgate-2-0-the-exit-scenarios/

GM has produced it's own tests, to refute these charges:

...Following claims from the German Environmental Relief (DUH) origination that the Opel Zafira 1.6 CDTi emitted excessively high nitrogen oxide (NOx) levels, the company took the unusual step of putting a Zafira 1.6 CDTi on both a two-roller and a four-roller test bench to confirm the emissions comply with the legal limits.

The results showed the model was compliant and Opel pointed out moving the rear wheels has no effect the emission systems. The company went on to call the DUH's allegations "clearly false and unfounded."..
http://www.newsjs.com/url.php?p=http://www.worldcarfans.com/1151023100367/opel-fights-back-against-alleged-emissions-cheating

In another study with different methodology, while all manufacturer's diesels tested failed to meet Euro emission standards, GM's diesels stood out as gross NOx polluters.

See graph at the link:

...Dr James Tate, of the Institute for Transport Studies at the University of Leeds, used roadside emissions testing equipment to record fumes produced by 20,000 diesel cars.

Dr Tate found that Vauxhall cars produced a lot more nitrogen oxide gas than any other brands, including Volkswagen.

'The NOx [nitrogen oxide] performance for all these brands are broadly similar but Euro 5 Vauxhall [diesel cars manufactured since September 2009] is a lot higher - it's suspicious,' he told The Times.

'They are basically double the emissions from all the other brands.'...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3286555/GMs-Opel-denies-violating-EU-emissions-standards.html
 
Outside of VW, I'm not convinced that any of this shows an intent to cheat in late model vehicles... I suspect that it is more the difference between clean room dyno results and real-world results. And I also suspect that the exact same thing would be true for many gas engines as well as diesels...
 
that ship sailed years ago! but like Tobacco, nothing will happen until at least half of America is driving alternative fuel vehicles which will be way too late at the rate we are going and lets face it; EVERYONE knows it but the government is failing to react and why?

well, why should they? the "right thing" has never been enough no matter what. even when cigarettes were killing hundred of thousands annually, they did nothing because there were too many smokers. there was no support or push to do anything.

gasoline is the same way. how can we get something done when over 98% of us still use gas every day??
 
The first step was to convince the tobacco users that it WAS IN FACT bad for them.

That bridge is being built now.

Yes, its very slow...

For many years that I followed the EVDl list there was one signature line that always hit me rather hard and got me seriously thinking about this issue. I can only paraphrase it from memory, but it went something like "If your exhaust pipe came out your steering wheel, would you still drive your car?"
 
Roostre said:
The first step was to convince the tobacco users that it WAS IN FACT bad for them.

ohh you have got to be kidding me! we all knew smoking killed DECADES before any real court action happened.
 
A lot of smokers quit once the curriculum about the dangers of smoking was introduced into the public schools. The pressure from their kids caused many of our friends to finally quit for good. Hopefully, there is some current curriculum about the effects of burning fossil fuels. I have taken my LEAF to a couple local schools at the request of some teachers for show and tell.
 
Quitting smoking is easy - my mom did it at least a dozen times (Dad quit cold turkey at age 52 and lived to 90, but then so did his younger brother, who smoked until the day he died. OTOH, Dad's older brother and one of his brother's sons died of smoking-related cancers before Dad did). Gasoline is a different situation - while our society as well as individuals may be highly dependent on fossil fuels, we aren't addicted to them, we just value the capabilities/convenience they provide. Provide an alternative with the same capabilities at the same or a lower price that also offers them something extra that they value, and individuals ( with no financial stake either way) will have no trouble switching. But until AFVs are at that point, the average person sees no compelling reason to change, despite decades of warnings as to the long-term effects and potential consequences of the use/depeletion of fossil fuels. And that's the thing: long-term, uncertain effects that may or may not affect us personally are rarely something that motivates human beings; we're much better at reacting to short-term immediate threats to ourselves or people we care about; it kept us alive when we had to dodge animals trying to eat us.

Our behavior is much like the old cartoon of the guy who feel off the top of the Empire State building. As he passed the 50th floor, he said "OK so far". This attitude seems to be ingrained in our genes.
 
Quitting smoking is easy - my mom did it at least a dozen times (Dad quit cold turkey at age 52 and lived to 90, but then so did his younger brother, who smoked until the day he died. OTOH, Dad's older brother and one of his brother's sons died of smoking-related cancers before Dad did). Gasoline is a different situation - while our society as well as individuals may be highly dependent on fossil fuels, we aren't addicted to them, we just value the capabilities/convenience they provide. Provide an alternative with the same capabilities at the same or a lower price that also offers them something extra that they value, and individuals ( with no financial stake either way) will have no trouble switching. But until AFVs are at that point, the average person sees no compelling reason to change, despite decades of warnings as to the long-term effects and potential consequences of the use/depeletion of fossil fuels. And that's the thing: long-term, uncertain effects that may or may not affect us personally are rarely something that motivates human beings; we're much better at reacting to short-term immediate threats to ourselves or people we care about; it kept us alive when we had to dodge animals trying to eat us.

Our behavior is much like the old cartoon of the guy who feel off the top of the Empire State building. As he passed the 50th floor, he said "OK so far". This attitude seems to be ingrained in our genes, which is why its a lot easier getting a teenager to stop smoking when they see an immediate benefit. Telling him/her they may die from cancer in 40 years is likely to be a lot less effective at getting them to quit smoking than having a girl/boy they're attracted to telling them that smoking gives them bad breath and is a real turn-off. Until more individuals see a similar rapid personal pay-off for switching to an AFV (SOV HOV lane use is one such, if long-term counter-productive), there's unlikely to be a mass movement to them. Fortunately, gas prices are bound to rise eventually, and hopefully do so before we're all up to our necks dealing with frequent floods, droughts, famines and/or lethal air pollution.
 
Smoking got identified with blue collar workers and high school degrees, the demographic with least influence in 21st Century America. In my 1983 MBA class, less than 2% smoked. Groups loving fast loud cars cross all income and education groups. Look at the ads on all forms of video. How long will it be before James Bond gets into one of those sexless Google cars for dweebs and says follow that spy? We already saw it it in Total Recall (not that asinine Colin Farell version) and know how that scene ended. Daniel Craig's grandson will be competing for the part and it still won't be normal.
 
Roostre said:
The first step was to convince the tobacco users that it WAS IN FACT bad for them.
Increasing taxes is the first step.
So far the only real tax is on the vehicles to reduce emissions and the corporate average fuel economy requirements.

I expect direct taxes will not be imposed until the supply of alternatives become adequate.
 
Looks like business as usual, in the EU.

Thank You For NOxing...

EU caves in to auto industry pressure for weak emissions limits


Carmakers have won delays to a more stringent “real driving emissions” test, which will allow them to belch out more than twice the legal limit of deadly nitrogen oxides (NOx) from 2019 and up to 50% more from 2021...

NOx emissions can cause emphysema, bronchitis, heart disease and asthma. The government says NO2 is responsible for 23,500 premature deaths a year.

Most of Europe’s NOx pollution come from diesel engines, which were encouraged by the EU as a way of lowering planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions...

Green MEPs described the newly minted test procedure as scandalous and pledged to use all legal avenues to block it.

“This new test is being marketed as a ‘real driving emissions’ test but it is a sham,” said Dutch MEP Bas Eickhout. “It is instead a gift to car manufacturers who have made no effort to meet the EU’s car pollution rules. Governments are not only keeping their heads in the sand with regard to the ongoing car emissions scandal, but are also willing to ignore the major and growing public health problems linked to air pollution.”
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/28/eu-emissions-limits-nox-car-manufacturers
 
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