SageBrush
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Location: Colorado

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:30 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:As Toyota, along with Honda and Hyundai are still eating ca. $15k in fuel costs per FCEV


At $150 per kWh, the expected battery cell cost in 2025, that would be the same as adding 100kWh.


https://electrek.co/2017/02/18/tesla-ba ... y-model-3/
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

GRA
Posts: 7904
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:42 pm

SageBrush wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:As Toyota, along with Honda and Hyundai are still eating ca. $15k in fuel costs per FCEV


At $150 per kWh, the expected battery cell cost in 2025, that would be the same as adding 100kWh.


https://electrek.co/2017/02/18/tesla-ba ... y-model-3/

Oh, well, if Tesla claims something it must be true, because they've never made overoptimistic claims and they're a highly profitable company.;)

Battery costs will come down, obviously, the question is how quickly they do so vis a vis the competition.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
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Location: Colorado

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:32 pm

Forward looking production guesses have squat to do with a statement of costs TODAY; and profit as some sort of metric of statement veracity is more than casually stupid. Are you a Trumper ?
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

GRA
Posts: 7904
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
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Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:46 pm

SageBrush wrote:Forward looking production guesses have squat to do with a statement of costs TODAY; and profit as some sort of metric of statement veracity is more than casually stupid. Are you a Trumper?

If you can seriously ask that question despite my posting here for the past six years, you really haven't been paying attention.

Have we had any independent verification of Tesla's battery cost claims? No? And do Tesla's alleged battery costs allow them to price their products to make a profit after 14 years in business? No, although some of the cars may be profitable.

Tesla remains a faith-based enterprise, which is fine as long as the economy stays robust, but will almost certainly lead to swift failure or a buy-out if that changes. While I'd love to take Tesla's claims at face value, nothing about their history leads me to do so. At least they're now forced to use GAAP accounting methods, instead of using whichever set of numbers they choose that make things look best.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Zythryn
Posts: 977
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Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:58 pm

GRA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Forward looking production guesses have squat to do with a statement of costs TODAY; and profit as some sort of metric of statement veracity is more than casually stupid. Are you a Trumper?

If you can seriously ask that question despite my posting here for the past six years, you really haven't been paying attention.

Have we had any independent verification of Tesla's battery cost claims? No? And do Tesla's alleged battery costs allow them to price their products to make a profit after 14 years in business? No, although some of the cars may be profitable.

Tesla remains a faith-based enterprise, which is fine as long as the economy stays robust, but will almost certainly lead to swift failure or a buy-out if that changes. While I'd love to take Tesla's claims at face value, nothing about their history leads me to do so. At least they're now forced to use GAAP accounting methods, instead of using whichever set of numbers they choose that make things look best.


GRA, 95% of your posts, typically, are excellent.
But then you go off the rails and into wild conspiracy land.

For example, your last statement. Your statement implies that they didn't use GAAP accounting methods. Tesla has been reporting GAAP numbers for years, quite possibly since they went public in 2010 or so.
Likewise, they have never used "whichever set of numbers they choose...". They have listed both GAAP and non-GAAP numbers and detailed why they believe non-GAAP to be a truer representation of the financials.
Now, you are welcome to completely disregard anything Tesla reports, but that doesn't leave much of any way to converse with you if Tesla come up.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
http://www.netzeromn.com

User avatar
RegGuheert
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Location: Northern VA

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:12 am

Let's observe how biased GRA's comments are:

Without expressing ANY reservations, GRA first offers up wild projections DECADES INTO THE FUTURE from the DOE which I have clearly shown are based almost-certainly-false assumptions:
GRA wrote:Also see:
DOE analysis suggests rapid convergence of FCEV and BEV TCOs; FCEVs less expensive for majority of LDV fleet by 2040; mass compounding
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/01/20180114-doe.html
But then when SageBrush offers information from Tesla about CURRENT manufacturing costs, we get this:
GRA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
WetEV wrote:At $150 per kWh, the expected battery cell cost in 2025, that would be the same as adding 100kWh.
https://electrek.co/2017/02/18/Tesla-battery-cost-gigafactory-model-3/
Oh, well, if Tesla claims something it must be true, because they've never made overoptimistic claims and they're a highly profitable company.;)
Then this:
GRA wrote:Battery costs will come down, obviously, the question is how quickly they do so vis a vis the competition.
History can be very educational here:

Here's what battery costs have done over the past six years (as of one year ago):

Image

...and here's what's happening with fuel cell costs:

Image

If you squint, you can see a very slight difference in the rate of manufacturing cost reduction since between the two technologies. :D

Notice that both graphs have 2020 and later cost forecasts on them. Can you spot which graph is heading toward the projection and which one is NOT?

Also note that the first graph is based on REAL COSTS while the second graph is just a guess from the DOE on volume manufacturing costs. Why is the DOE offering a guess of manufacturing costs for dates in the past? Simple: If they gave us the ACTUAL costs to build fuel cells during that period it would be immensely clear just how far out of the race they really are. The 500,000-unit-per-anum costs are mere guesses since no one has yet figured out how to make that many fuel cells in a year. But don't worry, that fact is just a minor bump in the road to world domination for the technology. :roll:

Meanwhile, the transition to battery-electric vehicles continues to pick up steam while the CA government tries to defy the physical reality by wasting OPM building H2 refueling stations.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

SageBrush
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Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:09 am

The "ultimate" target for a fuel cell cost is $30/kW, which already covers 36 kWh of a battery in a Tesla with a 150 kW motor TODAY
Then there is that trifling issue of fuel costs differences, currently up to > 30x fold and the cost of infrastructure, at 100x fold difference.

I'm inclined to speculate that FC costs have not dropped like the battery due to scale differences, and basic research advances will help both in somewhat equal measures. But even that rosy approach to FCV implies that they will never close the gap with EVs, and of course does nothing when it comes to infrastructure and fuel costs.

By the way, GM reported that their 2016/2017 battery cell costs from LG are $145/kWh and projected to be $100/kWh by 2022. In that context the Tesla cost pronouncements are if anything conservative, since LG lacks the GF scale, is shipping from Asia, and is tacking on a profit margin.

Consistent with that assessment is the VP of investor relations at Tesla's statement in mid 2016 that Tesla pack prices are already below $190 per kWh. That is before GF pricing kicks in. Fwiw, packaging costs are about $70 a kWh at GM. Given Tesla's scale advantage, I'll presume packing costs are $50 a kWh. That implies 2016 cell costs at Tesla of $140/kWh. When GF is operating at capacity in 2019 a 35% reduction in costs is expected, that works out to $90 a kWh cell cost and then $140/kWh pack cost. About $7,300 production cost for the SR Model 3 battery, and about $11,200 for the LR Model 3 (52 and 80 kWh, respectively)

Pretty soon the battery cost curve will be mostly a story of packaging costs -- soft costs, if you will, similar to PV today.

https://insideevs.com/gm-chevrolet-bolt ... oves-3500/
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

GRA
Posts: 7904
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Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:11 pm

Zythryn wrote:
GRA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Forward looking production guesses have squat to do with a statement of costs TODAY; and profit as some sort of metric of statement veracity is more than casually stupid. Are you a Trumper?

If you can seriously ask that question despite my posting here for the past six years, you really haven't been paying attention.

Have we had any independent verification of Tesla's battery cost claims? No? And do Tesla's alleged battery costs allow them to price their products to make a profit after 14 years in business? No, although some of the cars may be profitable.

Tesla remains a faith-based enterprise, which is fine as long as the economy stays robust, but will almost certainly lead to swift failure or a buy-out if that changes. While I'd love to take Tesla's claims at face value, nothing about their history leads me to do so. At least they're now forced to use GAAP accounting methods, instead of using whichever set of numbers they choose that make things look best.


GRA, 95% of your posts, typically, are excellent.
But then you go off the rails and into wild conspiracy land.

For example, your last statement. Your statement implies that they didn't use GAAP accounting methods. Tesla has been reporting GAAP numbers for years, quite possibly since they went public in 2010 or so.
Likewise, they have never used "whichever set of numbers they choose...". They have listed both GAAP and non-GAAP numbers and detailed why they believe non-GAAP to be a truer representation of the financials.
Now, you are welcome to completely disregard anything Tesla reports, but that doesn't leave much of any way to converse with you if Tesla come up.

Have you forgotten this (it was just over a year ago)?:
SEC Criticizes Tesla Over ‘Tailored’ Accounting
Electric car maker has dropped non-GAAP metrics flagged by the regulator
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-criticizes-telsa-over-tailored-accounting-1480373158

Or perhaps you'd prefer this article instead:
SEC takes Tesla to task over accounting practices

Published: Nov 30, 2016 10:59 a.m. ET

It took four letters from the Securities and Exchange Commission, three letters from Tesla’s lawyers, five amendments to the original registration filing and at least one conference call before the SEC was satisfied
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-takes-tesla-to-task-over-nonstandard-and-individually-tailored-numbers-2016-11-29

For a selection of articles dealing with this practice, google https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+gaap+sec&oq=tesla+gaap+sec&aqs=chrome..69i57.3942j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Apparently ConspiracyLand is populated by the SEC. AFAIA, Tesla (and other companies) aren't required to disclose the cost specifics of their batteries, only to (now) use GAAP when filing their quarterly and annual statements. They can claim whatever the hell they want to otherwise, and hope that no one has any reason to sue them later (and win, as Norwegian owners did over Tesla's less than complete power claims for the P85D).

Just like politicians, companies lie or spin the truth all the time if they think it's an advantage for them, and Tesla's no different. I apply the same standard to Tesla that I would to any information source: Before I decide how much credence to put on them, I want to know what their track record is.
Last edited by GRA on Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:21 pm

SageBrush wrote:The "ultimate" target for a fuel cell cost is $30/kW, which already covers 36 kWh of a battery in a Tesla with a 150 kW motor TODAY
Then there is that trifling issue of fuel costs differences, currently up to > 30x fold and the cost of infrastructure, at 100x fold difference.

I'd say that overstates the cost differences considerably, especially the latter.

SageBrush wrote:I'm inclined to speculate that FC costs have not dropped like the battery due to scale differences, and basic research advances will help both in somewhat equal measures. But even that rosy approach to FCV implies that they will never close the gap with EVs, and of course does nothing when it comes to infrastructure and fuel costs.

Agreed, it's the latter two that will likely ultimately determine the fate of H2/FCEVs. But unlike many here, I don't believe that H2/FCEVs have to be cheaper than BEVs, only that they have to be cost competitive with ICEs, which still make up 97% of car sales in the U.S.

SageBrush wrote:By the way, GM reported that their 2016/2017 battery cell costs from LG are $145/kWh and projected to be $100/kWh by 2022. In that context the Tesla cost pronouncements are if anything conservative, since LG lacks the GF scale, is shipping from Asia, and is tacking on a profit margin.

Consistent with that assessment is the VP of investor relations at Tesla's statement in mid 2016 that Tesla pack prices are already below $190 per kWh. That is before GF pricing kicks in. Fwiw, packaging costs are about $70 a kWh at GM. Given Tesla's scale advantage, I'll presume packing costs are $50 a kWh. That implies 2016 cell costs at Tesla of $140/kWh. When GF is operating at capacity in 2019 a 35% reduction in costs is expected, that works out to $90 a kWh cell cost and then $140/kWh pack cost. About $7,300 production cost for the SR Model 3 battery, and about $11,200 for the LR Model 3 (52 and 80 kWh, respectively)

Pretty soon the battery cost curve will be mostly a story of packaging costs -- soft costs, if you will, similar to PV today.

https://insideevs.com/gm-chevrolet-bolt ... oves-3500/

I'm well aware of GM's cost statements, and since they tend to agree with outside (and my own) pack cost analyses of $200-$250/kWh, as well as reports that LGChem wasn't at all pleased to have that number out there, I consider it likely to be fairly accurate. Tesla will have the advantage of scale when the Gigafactory is fully up and running and they've got all the bugs out. We know that they were still dealing with those bugs as of a month or two ago, and we simply don't know the current state, as there have been rumors on both sides of the issue.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

User avatar
RegGuheert
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Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:20 pm

From Wards Auto's report from CES a year ago:
John McElroy of Wards Auto wrote:Let’s start with the EV batteries. Back in 2010 the Department of Energy set a cost goal of $125 per kilowatt hour for an EV battery pack by 2022, because that would make electric-propulsion systems equal to the cost of an internal-combustion engine. In addition to individual cells, the battery pack also includes the supporting structure, cooling mechanisms, and battery management systems.

At the time no one saw a clear path of how to get to that cost. But at CES, several EV experts told me the DOE’s number is turning out to be a very conservative goal. They assured me those costs will be under $100 before 2020, and not long after that they will go down to about $80 per kilowatt hour.
At $100/kWh, 60-kWh batteries are very comparable in cost with the powertrain in an ICE. Further cost reductions below that point will be just gravy, but will not be required for rapid adoption.

That's a completely different story than fuel cells, which no one has yet learned how to mass produce.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

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