GRA
Posts: 9234
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:02 pm

RegGuheert wrote:From Wards Auto's report from CES a year ago:
John McElroy of Wards Auto wrote:Let’s start with the EV batteries. Back in 2010 the Department of Energy set a cost goal of $125 per kilowatt hour for an EV battery pack by 2022, because that would make electric-propulsion systems equal to the cost of an internal-combustion engine. In addition to individual cells, the battery pack also includes the supporting structure, cooling mechanisms, and battery management systems.

At the time no one saw a clear path of how to get to that cost. But at CES, several EV experts told me the DOE’s number is turning out to be a very conservative goal. They assured me those costs will be under $100 before 2020, and not long after that they will go down to about $80 per kilowatt hour.
At $100/kWh, 60-kWh batteries are very comparable in cost with the powertrain in an ICE. Further cost reductions below that point will be just gravy, but will not be required for rapid adoption.

That's a completely different story than fuel cells, which no one has yet learned how to mass produce.

Yes, fuel cell mass production will be the key to their costs making the next major step down, which is exactly where the companies which are producing FCEVs are devoting much of their R&D - Toyota certainly is. Other R&D areas are reducing or eliminating Pt and increasing both power density and longevity. So far, every succeeding generation of FCEVs deployed has seen these last three areas improve by 50% or more (about 100% for power density) compared to the immediately preceding generation. Those curves will start to flatten soon, if they haven't already.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 9234
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:38 pm

Via GCC:
California Energy Commission awards First Element Fuel ~$8M for hydrogen fueling stations
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/01/201801-cec.html

The California Energy Commission awarded First Element Fuel almost $8 million in Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program (ARFVTP) grants to build hydrogen fueling stations in Redwood City, Studio City, Beverly Hills, and Mission Hills. . . .

I need to check for these specific stations, but most of the grants now being awarded are for stations with 300 kg+ of H2 storage and two dispensers.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 9234
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:40 pm

GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:From Wards Auto's report from CES a year ago:
John McElroy of Wards Auto wrote:Let’s start with the EV batteries. Back in 2010 the Department of Energy set a cost goal of $125 per kilowatt hour for an EV battery pack by 2022, because that would make electric-propulsion systems equal to the cost of an internal-combustion engine. In addition to individual cells, the battery pack also includes the supporting structure, cooling mechanisms, and battery management systems.

At the time no one saw a clear path of how to get to that cost. But at CES, several EV experts told me the DOE’s number is turning out to be a very conservative goal. They assured me those costs will be under $100 before 2020, and not long after that they will go down to about $80 per kilowatt hour.
At $100/kWh, 60-kWh batteries are very comparable in cost with the powertrain in an ICE. Further cost reductions below that point will be just gravy, but will not be required for rapid adoption.

That's a completely different story than fuel cells, which no one has yet learned how to mass produce.

Yes, fuel cell mass production will be the key to their costs making the next major step down, which is exactly where the companies which are producing FCEVs are devoting much of their R&D - Toyota certainly is. Other R&D areas are reducing or eliminating Pt and increasing both power density and longevity. So far, every succeeding generation of FCEVs deployed has seen these last three areas improve by 50% or more (about 100% for power density) compared to the immediately preceding generation. Those curves will start to flatten soon, if they haven't already.

Et voila', via GCC:
Report: Toyota to cut costs of fuel cell cars’ core technologies by >50% for new model in 2020; cut by 75% by 2025
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/01/20180119-toyota.html

. . . While production for of the Mirai, Toyota’s first mass-produced fuel cell model has grown steadily since its introduction in 2014, the car remains pricey at about $63,000 [GRA Note: In Japan] and has sold only a little more than 5,000 units.

Plans call for reducing the cost of the fuel cell system and other components further after the next-generation model is launched, cutting those costs by three-quarters around 2025. Toyota targets annual sales of over 30,000 vehicles globally, including more than 10,000 in Japan.

According to the Nikkei report, Toyota plans to reduce the cost of the fuel cell system and other components further after the next-generation model is launched, cutting those costs by three-quarters around 2025. . . .

As Toyota's a very conservative company when it comes to announcing new developments and prices, the above strongly implies that Toyota has developed the methods needed to move into limited-rate mass production of stacks, i.e. 25-50k/yr. The next major step-down will probably require rates of 100-250k/yr, by which time the cost curve will definitely be flattening, and beyond which cost reductions will likely be incremental.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 6319
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:55 am

What GRA says:
GRA wrote:As Toyota's a very conservative company when it comes to announcing new developments and prices,...
Of course we know the opposite to be true when it comes to Toyota making claims about future developments with fuel cell vehicles:
Jim Press back in 2005 - Then COO of Toyota North America talking about fuel-cell vehicles at 1:03:22 wrote:But 15 to 20 years from now they'll be the norm.
That quote was from this entertaining video:

My other favorite quote by Toyota in that video was this one:
Jim Press back in 2005 - Then COO of Toyota North America at 49:40 wrote:There's a lot of debate today about what powertrains will emerge tomorrow: internal combustion engines, hybrid-electric, diesel, fuel cells, Solar. All of these are great new technologies that are emerging that are making internal combustion engines better.
Notice which technology he did NOT mention? BEVs. In other words, Toyota is bucking physics to try to force the square peg into a round hole. They will fail.

So Toyota has just confirmed that they will not come close to being able to produce 500,000 fuel cells per year even in 2025. That matches my view on the topic.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

SageBrush
Posts: 2791
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:32 am

GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:From Wards Auto's report from CES a year ago:
John McElroy of Wards Auto wrote:Let’s start with the EV batteries. Back in 2010 the Department of Energy set a cost goal of $125 per kilowatt hour for an EV battery pack by 2022, because that would make electric-propulsion systems equal to the cost of an internal-combustion engine. In addition to individual cells, the battery pack also includes the supporting structure, cooling mechanisms, and battery management systems.

At the time no one saw a clear path of how to get to that cost. But at CES, several EV experts told me the DOE’s number is turning out to be a very conservative goal. They assured me those costs will be under $100 before 2020, and not long after that they will go down to about $80 per kilowatt hour.
At $100/kWh, 60-kWh batteries are very comparable in cost with the powertrain in an ICE. Further cost reductions below that point will be just gravy, but will not be required for rapid adoption.

That's a completely different story than fuel cells, which no one has yet learned how to mass produce.

Yes, fuel cell mass production will be the key to their costs making the next major step down, which is exactly where the companies which are producing FCEVs are devoting much of their R&D - Toyota certainly is. Other R&D areas are reducing or eliminating Pt and increasing both power density and longevity. So far, every succeeding generation of FCEVs deployed has seen these last three areas improve by 50% or more (about 100% for power density) compared to the immediately preceding generation. Those curves will start to flatten soon, if they haven't already.

My slightly more cynical impression is that the car companies are focusing on fuel cells because they hope the infrastructure will be somebody else's problem and cost. Not unlike GM and the legacy automakers where it comes to charging infrastructure.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

SageBrush
Posts: 2791
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:36 am

GRA wrote:Via GCC:
California Energy Commission awards First Element Fuel ~$8M for hydrogen fueling stations
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/01/201801-cec.html

The California Energy Commission awarded First Element Fuel almost $8 million in Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program (ARFVTP) grants to build hydrogen fueling stations in Redwood City, Studio City, Beverly Hills, and Mission Hills. . . .

I need to check for these specific stations, but most of the grants now being awarded are for stations with 300 kg+ of H2 storage and two dispensers.

That is my memory as well.

300 kg is around 75 fill-ups in the Mirai. What is involved in replenishing the tank ?
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GRA
Posts: 9234
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:19 pm

SageBrush wrote:
GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:From Wards Auto's report from CES a year ago:At $100/kWh, 60-kWh batteries are very comparable in cost with the powertrain in an ICE. Further cost reductions below that point will be just gravy, but will not be required for rapid adoption.

That's a completely different story than fuel cells, which no one has yet learned how to mass produce.

Yes, fuel cell mass production will be the key to their costs making the next major step down, which is exactly where the companies which are producing FCEVs are devoting much of their R&D - Toyota certainly is. Other R&D areas are reducing or eliminating Pt and increasing both power density and longevity. So far, every succeeding generation of FCEVs deployed has seen these last three areas improve by 50% or more (about 100% for power density) compared to the immediately preceding generation. Those curves will start to flatten soon, if they haven't already.

My slightly more cynical impression is that the car companies are focusing on fuel cells because they hope the infrastructure will be somebody else's problem and cost. Not unlike GM and the legacy automakers where it comes to charging infrastructure.

Of course, no car company want's to build an infrastructure if they don't have to. It's because building the gas station infrastructure was profitable that that infrastructure developed so quickly. My concern with BEVs, in this country at least, is that I don't see any way to make the cost reductions necessary to make public charging profitable at a price the public is willing to pay, which is why all such charging infrastructure (other than the SC network) has remained dependent on public subsidies for new installations, and has thus grown slowly. AFAIA, no one (who has to provide the electricity) is making money on them.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 9234
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:24 pm

SageBrush wrote:
GRA wrote:Via GCC:
California Energy Commission awards First Element Fuel ~$8M for hydrogen fueling stations
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/01/201801-cec.html

The California Energy Commission awarded First Element Fuel almost $8 million in Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program (ARFVTP) grants to build hydrogen fueling stations in Redwood City, Studio City, Beverly Hills, and Mission Hills. . . .

I need to check for these specific stations, but most of the grants now being awarded are for stations with 300 kg+ of H2 storage and two dispensers.

That is my memory as well.

300 kg is around 75 fill-ups in the Mirai. What is involved in replenishing the tank ?

I'd put it at fewer than that, once the infrastructure is dense enough to provide piece of mind, i.e. running down to say .5 kg remaining out of 5 kg, instead of people being more cautious owing to the possibility of needing to go further if their local station is U/S.

Re the bold, I don't understand what you're asking for here. Can you clarify?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 9234
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:27 pm

RegGuheert wrote:What GRA says:
GRA wrote:As Toyota's a very conservative company when it comes to announcing new developments and prices,...
Of course we know the opposite to be true when it comes to Toyota making claims about future developments with fuel cell vehicles:
Jim Press back in 2005 - Then COO of Toyota North America talking about fuel-cell vehicles at 1:03:22 wrote:But 15 to 20 years from now they'll be the norm.
That quote was from this entertaining video:

That's nice, but then that's not Toyota talking about definite timescales based on their own developments, unlike the case here.

RegGuheert wrote:My other favorite quote by Toyota in that video was this one:
Jim Press back in 2005 - Then COO of Toyota North America at 49:40 wrote:There's a lot of debate today about what powertrains will emerge tomorrow: internal combustion engines, hybrid-electric, diesel, fuel cells, Solar. All of these are great new technologies that are emerging that are making internal combustion engines better.
Notice which technology he did NOT mention? BEVs. In other words, Toyota is bucking physics to try to force the square peg into a round hole. They will fail.

So Toyota has just confirmed that they will not come close to being able to produce 500,000 fuel cells per year even in 2025. That matches my view on the topic.

Yup, 500k is almost certainly too high. 100k might be doable by then, but we'll see.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 6319
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: CA. retail H2 fuel stations

Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:39 pm

GRA wrote:That's nice, but then that's not Toyota talking about definite timescales based on their own developments, unlike the case here.
Right. Definite timescales. Got it. 12 years ago their timescales for fuel-cell vehicle development were "not definite" and incredibly overly-optimistic. But today, their timescales are "definite" and "very conservative".

Meanwhile, all along the way, Toyota completely missed the train on BEVs, including today. I have detailed the many reasons their plan is doomed to fail. There is no reason to believe otherwise.

Sorry, but Toyota has lost all credibility in this arena. So far they've chosen to game CARB for the sole purpose of selling more gasoline powered vehicles. The longer they cling to that goal, the farther they will fall from grace.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

Return to “Business / Economy and Politics”