GRA wrote:For one thing, the second round of stations now being funded will have much greater capacity than the first round. They've added more money for stations that have at least 300 kg./day capacity, vs. the 180 kg. typical of the first gen. Haven't had time to read the full report yet (just the Exec. summary), so will wait to comment further until I've done so.
O.K. So then reread the last part of my post that you omitted:
RegGuheert wrote:But the real question I have about that chart is this: Can the AVERAGE H2 refueling station really support a fleet of over 1500 H2 FCVs? I seriously doubt that. If we assume each FCV refuels about every five days, that is 300 refuelings per station per day (more than one refueling at every station every five minutes). (And that simple analysis assumes that all stations have the same demand and all are working.) Simply put, that many H2 FCVs will NOT be delivered by 2022 regardless of what CARB wants to happen. Most car buyers already see the folly in these vehicles and it will become much more clear if/when the issues with infrastructure grow beyond reasonable limits.
That means that the average H2 refueling station needs to provide 1200 kg/day
. In other words, BEST CASE this overly-expensive H2 refueling network will only be capable of refueling about one-fifth
the number of H2 FCVs that CARB is projecting to be delivered (two years before this network is completed). I find it more than a bit "funny" that this calculation is not written in bold letters as a main conclusion of this government "study," or ANY CARB study.
So, what do you think? People are going to go out and purchase a quarter-million-dollar home hydrogen refueling station since they are tired of waiting for hydrogen or maybe they will simply purchase an EV instead?
This calculation is so obvious that it's not possible that CARB is unaware of this fact. But if you think it's hard to sell the idea of enabling 150,000 heavily subsidized cars by spending a QUARTER BILLION DOLLARS
of infrastructure to the legislature, imagine how much harder it would be to sell that same amount to enable only 30,000 of those subsidized cars, if that many. Interestingly, the cost-per-vehicle of the H2 refueling infrastructure is very close to the number I calculated WAY back at the start of this thread. And since this H2 infrastructure has approximately the same service life as the vehicles, that fee gets tacked onto EVERY H2 FCV put onto the highway.
But don't worry: CARB will be able to blame those evil automobile manufacturers, since they will not be able to build (or sell) that many H2 FCVs before that time. Their ONLY hope to sell 150,000 H2 FCVs by 2024 is to make nearly all of them plug-in hybrids and fueling most of their miles using grid power. Good luck selling those!