Lessons Learned, what Hydrogen did wrong

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ydnas7

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 27, 2011
Messages
590
Firstly, this is not a rehash of the EV vs HFC thread.
By 2008, with a little research it was apparent that H2 was pointless, and by late 2012 early 2013, due to Tesla model S, it was apparent to the wider public that EVs were both the future and the present. Counter arguments to that belong in the EV vs HFC thread.

what missteps did hydrogen vehicles do. That is what this thread is about.

Firstly, the pursuit of 700bar. The resulting infrastructure cost from the 350 to 700 bar transition i think killed hydrogen in general. Personally I suspect that the resultant infrastructure burden is why Nissan/Ford/Mercedes H2 vehicles now seem to be postponed until next decade and the 200mile EVs for Nissan (and Ford) are coming instead. Reasons why 350 to 700bar results in such high infrastructure cost are suitable for consideration in this thread.

pursuit of 700 bar also degrades and range of a 350 bar optimized HFC, increases the cost of a 350 bar optimized HFC and added unnecessary risk to the choice of on-board pressure tanks.

Secondly, avoidance of adding a plug for recharging is also major misstep of the hydrogen. Yes recharge plugs are anathema to hydrogen manufacturers, but they do vastly reduce the dependence on hydrogen infrastructure. Even a 8.8 kwh prius prime type battery would massively improve the viability of the Toyota Mirai. Same for Hyundais and Hondas etc. People don't buy 700bar hydrogen tanked cars just to let the car sit on public roads so they can be scratched. That was a silly idea,
A correlation is if Tesla had put all there superchargers at equivalent locations of the H2 stations, and forced people to only recharge there. Funny straw man idea, very likely would've bankrupt Tesla.

The first and second point were and are major, the third point is quite debatable and possibly wrong, H2 cars give the appearance of greenwashing, yet are not green. There was blowback, that hydrogen could've avoided if they had not pretended to be low global emission.
 
I think greenwashing only works with legislators and regulators. I don't think there's enough car buyers who care how green their car is and those that do are savvy enough to know a FCV will always be less efficient and hence less green than a BEV.

The vehicles have no compelling traits. There's no demand. They're bland or weird and penalize owners with mediocre performance and limited storage but still require trips to the "filling station".

Despite it's flaws, the LEAF is a cheap, quick, runabout that never needs to visit a gas station. Features that have made all the difference to my wife, a future Model 3 owner.
 
I don't think HFC has done anything wrong so to speak. HFC has enjoyed many perks not available to BEVs. HFC is still just too costly.

In time maybe. Especially if some (many?) big breakthrough is made. Doubt I will see main stream HFC in my lifetime. Better chance to see BEV mass adoption and even that is a long way to go IMO.
 
ydnas7 said:
Secondly, avoidance of adding a plug for recharging is also major misstep of the hydrogen. Yes recharge plugs are anathema to hydrogen manufacturers, but they do vastly reduce the dependence on hydrogen infrastructure.
Yep. That was one of my first comments about the cars once the details were available:
RegGuheert said:
But for the kinds of FCVs being produced by the car manufacturers today, the utility is only marginally better than a BEV for long-distance travel, and worse for commuting. Those cars need a plug, but it has gone missing. Without one, they will cost more to purchase AND more to operate than the equivalent BEV.
ydnas7 said:
The first and second point were and are major, the third point is quite debatable and possibly wrong, H2 cars give the appearance of greenwashing, yet are not green. There was blowback, that hydrogen could've avoided if they had not pretended to be low global emission.
I have railed against the idea of deploying FCVs, since they are one of the most environmentally-damaging solutions available today with utility which is significantly below and costs significantly above that of the current incumbent solution: gasoline/BEV hybrids.

H2 FCVs are enjoying rather rapid acceptance in the material-handling (forklift) market (replacing lead-acid batteries used in quick-charge applications). That is true because they are solving a real business problem in that space. Fuel cells should continue to be used only where they solve a real problem.
 
The 700 bar was an example of transferring cost of vehicle design into the infrastructure

700 bar requirement: Can double the cost of infrastructure over 350 bar:
Compressors – 2x-3x the cost, Dispensers – 2x-3x the cost,
Storage – 2x the cost, plumbing – 2x the cost.
Installation – 30-50% higher cost.
Permitting more difficult.

the real issue is not addressed in the above, its the 1 hour peak rate that is required to support a fleet of vehicles. Its far easier with 350 bar hydrogen than with 700 bar hydrogen to support the annual (or even monthly) peak.

Unintentionally Toyota et al designed the Mirai to fail when they transitioned to 700 bar. Did Toyota really have such little experience with hydrogen to realize that 700 bar H2 is stupid. It was/is the difference between having H2 infrastructure cost greater than the cost of providing free Teslas. At least 350 bar H2 would not have had that burden.

700bar H2 only makes sense with liquid hydrogen delivery systems, the others (gaseous and particularly on site electrolysis are pained by the 700 bar requirement. On site electrolysis becomes about 3 x price of delivered liquid hydrogen when 700 bar output is required.
 
I assumed 700 bar was for the range to exceed Tesla. Just like the 2011 LEAF over promising range.... has Toyota and FCVs done the same?
If 700 bar is not practical the end user will be disappointed.
 
A fuel cell Volt sort of thing has always sounded interesting to me. Then again, with AER pushing 60 miles, it probably doesn't matter what the range extender uses, so you might as well go with the commodity technology with the pervasive fuel sources.
 
sparky said:
The vehicles have no compelling traits. There's no demand. They're bland or weird and penalize owners with mediocre performance and limited storage but still require trips to the "filling station".

The single compelling trait is promise of not having to give up gasoline's "I can go as far as I wanna". So if you've got to push the envelope for H2 compression, that's what you do to maintain that one marginal edge-case, to satisfy the long-haul trucker in us all.
 
here's a list of California's H2 stations, can anyone see the problem?
http://m.cafcp.org/

its really really obvious, but i doubt that Toyota/Shell/CARB even have an inkling about it.
 
smkettner said:
I assumed 700 bar was for the range to exceed Tesla. Just like the 2011 LEAF over promising range.... has Toyota and FCVs done the same?
If 700 bar is not practical the end user will be disappointed.

If the government grant are for 700bar, then that is what the stations will supply.
700 bar doesn't solve the problem, just embeds it.
 
Firetruck41 said:
There's not very many of them?

thats the answer that Toyota/Shell/CARB would give, so you're in the company of the rich/successful/powerful

but with all due respect, no, that was not the answer I was looking for
 
ydnas7 said:
Firetruck41 said:
There's not very many of them?

thats the answer that Toyota/Shell/CARB would give, so you're in the company of the rich/successful/powerful

but with all due respect, no, that was not the answer I was looking for
What answer were you looking for? Soft opening? (I don't know what that is)
 
I'll bite. Probably that there are only 16 retail stations open and available for operation. At $2M per station, that is $32M that could pay for a LOT of EV charging stations.
 
aarond12 said:
I'll bite. Probably that there are only 16 retail stations open and available for operation. At $2M per station, that is $32M that could pay for a LOT of EV charging stations.
Don't forget how much electricity could be purchased with the annual operating cost of these stations.
IIRC about one million per year. That is a lot of solar panels.
 
aarond12 said:
I'll bite. Probably that there are only 16 retail stations open and available for operation. At $2M per station, that is $32M that could pay for a LOT of EV charging stations.

good answer, all but one of those stations are just competing with home/destination based AC charging. Its kinda ludicrous to expect $2m stations to compete with $500 power points. Especially as the H2 stations are quite congestion constrained. Only the Harris H2 station makes sense, but those other 15 stations are just a waste. Its just a further example of the Hydrogen car makers unwittingly pushing the burden back onto the infrastructure providers, and wondering why they have no takers.

It is now 982 days since that bill was authorized. http://www.dailynews.com/general-news/20131021/motorists-to-foot-bill-for-californias-touted-hydrogen-highway, and only about 1/3 of the 48 stations have been built. Time = money

By omitting home based charging, the infrastructure burden is so difficult, that H2 cars become leash bound. An EV/PHEV can travel the country, a hydrogen car cannot, so in a world of Bolt/Volt, LEAF 2 , Used Tesla, new Teslas, Outlanders, Pacificas etc the H2 cars become the local range, high priced, natural gas powered cars that they always were saying that they were not.


ps soft start means open but not fully commissioned. Ie its open for use so they can iron out the bugs before the grand opening.
 
dec 2015 report on California's H2
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2015publications/CEC-600-2015-016/CEC-600-2015-016.pdf

103wdq8.jpg


how does this affect California's 33% renewable H2 dictate?

Does it impact the viability of H2 in California?

Does it reflect Toyota's and BMW's direction for Hydrogen?
 
Thanks for the data! Let's run some numbers:
ydnas7 said:
how does this affect California's 33% renewable H2 dictate?
710 kg H2/day from electrolysis/9250 kg H2 total = 7.7% H2 from electrolysis, which is less than 1/4 of the 33% dictate.

On top of that, the fuel cost for H2 from electrolysis appears to start at $24.00/kg (!) and goes up from there. And that is the COST, not the PRICE! :eek:

Lessee, that gives a per-mile cost for driving on H2 of AT LEAST $0.48/mile. That is 24X what it costs me to drive on electricity from my PV array!
ydnas7 said:
Does it impact the viability of H2 in California?
Total cost for 49 H2 stations, including upgrades: $112,600,000.00
Total H2 daily delivery of H2: 9250 kg/day (likely very optimistic, since you likely cannot deliver at maximum each day)
Total vehicle-miles per day from H2: 462,500 miles/day (based on average mileage of 50 miles/kg)
H2 FCV fleet size supportable: 11,500 H2 FCVs total (based on average daily mileage of 40 miles/day)
Infrastructure cost per H2 FCV vehicle: $10,000/vehicle (not including operation and maintenance costs, which likely double this number plus it assumes all stations run at full capacity at all times) (I calculated this number years ago very early in this thread. It has not changed much.)

In other words, the $112.6M gets you enough H2 refueling stations (49) to (maybe) support the number of BEVs and PHEVs sold each month. No problem, since it will take the vehicle manufacturers YEARS to build and deliver that many H2 FCVs.
ydnas7 said:
Does it reflect Toyota's and BMW's direction for Hydrogen?
Which is what? Collect enough taxpayer dollars to make a token quantity of these vehicles to give the APPEARANCE of doing something which is good for the environment? Yeah. this reflects that.
 
155lc00.jpg


the choice of 700bar makes these high utilisation rates unrealistic
because the cost challenges for both chilling and compression the 700bar systems are expensive for a given back to back refueling capacity, a 12 hour capacity is meaningless if its 10 x higher than a 1/2 hour capacity because people don't want to wait 1/2 hour + to get their needed fuel.

Its also why these stations cost equivalent to free Teslas.

$50m (gov grant money) / $60k (price of Tesla S60) = 834 FREE Tesla

There are perhaps 340 H2 cars in California, by the time they reach 834 cars, Tesla Model 3 may be in production, Chevy Bolt will be in production, Nissan LEAF 2 might be in production.

$50m (gov grant money) / $30k (price of GM Bolt/Nissan LEAF 2) = 1,666 FREE Bolts/LEAF 2 or 1,428 FREE Tesla M3

I could continue, but the choice to go to 700bar was another death blow to H2, however, In the future Toyota/BMW won't stop at 700 bar, they will want 350-700 bar at cryogenic temps (perhaps 40 Kelvin). It reminds me of Kodak. https://www.stfc.ac.uk/stfc/cache/file/F45B669C-73BF-495B-B843DCDF50E8B5A5.pdf
 
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