Opinion: Uranium Prices Set To Double By 2018

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GRA

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Via GCC: http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/06/20160616-u.html

. . . Uranium analyst David Talbot of Dundee Capital Markets is forecasting 6 percent compound annual demand growth through 2020, which is enough, he says, to “kick-start” uranium prices up to and beyond 2007 levels. Morningstar analyst David Wang predicts prices will double within the next two years.

Mining Weekly expects “the period from 2017-2020 to be a landmark period for the nuclear sector and uranium stocks, as the global operating nuclear reactor fleet expands. . . ." Now that enough time has passed since Fukushima, this negative sentiment is losing steam as it appears that Japan has succeeded in bringing some of its reactors back online—four of its reactors have already restarted operations. . . .

First and foremost, the world is building more nuclear reactors right now than ever before, despite Fukushima. A total of 65 new reactors are already going up, another 165 are planned and yet another 331 proposed. . . .
 
I think this analysis is likely BS. Firstly, nuke plants are getting shuttered in the US because they are uneconomic. Secondly, it takes a really long time for nuke plants to come online. So if there are 100+ "planned" and 300+ "proposed" (whatever that means), if they ever do come online, they are all probably 20+ years away from that point.

Economics is the big force here. Solar and wind are getting amazingly cheap. Nukes just can't keep up anymore. I don't think any new coal plants will be built in the US either. CA hits 50%+ renewables on some days now, and they are only increasing the renewable portion of their portfolio. Even dirty utilities like Southern Company just issued over $10 billion in bonds to fund solar and wind projects.
 
"The Nuclear Industry Prices Itself Out Of Market For New Power Plants"

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/03/08/3757281/nuclear-industry-prices/
 
Note that most Nuke development isn't occurring in the U.S. or Europe. China's the biggest player currently, building Gen III PWRs as fast as they can and also developing Gen IV HTRs and FTRs to start replacing PWRs from say 2030 on. In fact, they may well be the first country to get a Gen III PWR (Westinghouse AP-1000) in operation. They've got to reduce coal use for baseload, and they also have to expand total capacity. See: http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx

India's also building them in large numbers: http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/india.aspx
 
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