WEC report: EVs need 16% market share by 2020 for fuel economy standards to be met

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GRA

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Via GCC: http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/06/20160630-wec.html

Electric vehicles (EVs) will need to increase their combined market share to 16% by 2020 for markets to achieve the aggressive fuel economy standards set by regulators, according to new research by the World Energy Council, the UN-accredited global energy body representing the entire energy spectrum.

While EVs currently represent less than 1% combined market share across the world’s largest markets for new passenger cars, they should be considered central to any policy and technology portfolio designed to lower transport emissions, WEC said. . . .

The World Energy Perspective 2016: E-mobility: closing the emissions gap report*, published by the Council in collaboration with Accenture Strategy, examines the growth in sales of EVs as the latest technologies to increase average fuel efficiency and meet these stringent economy standards, set in all three markets [EU/US/China], referred to as the “EV gap”.

In the EU, the EV gap is 1.4 million, 10% of the estimated 2020 projected passenger sales, in the US, 0.9 million (11%) and in China roughly 5.3 million, 22% of the projected passenger car sales. . . .

By 2020 each market would need an additional [electricity generation of]:

  • 3.7 TWh (equivalent to 734,000 homes) in the EU
    4.5 TWh (equivalent to 367,000 homes) in the US
    26.2 TWh (equivalent to 17 million homes) in China
. . . .

* http://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/E-Mobility-Closing-the-emissions-gap_full-report_FINAL_2016.06.20.pdf
 
16% seems a stretch with fed credits poised to begin phase out, limited model offerings, and consumer indifference. Maybe if MSRPs come down and gas goes up. More incentives are iffy.
 
GRA said:
Via GCC: http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/06/20160630-wec.html

Electric vehicles (EVs) will need to increase their combined market share to 16% by 2020 for markets to achieve the aggressive fuel economy standards set by regulators, according to new research by the World Energy Council, the UN-accredited global energy body representing the entire energy spectrum.

While EVs currently represent less than 1% combined market share across the world’s largest markets for new passenger cars, they should be considered central to any policy and technology portfolio designed to lower transport emissions, WEC said. . . .

The World Energy Perspective 2016: E-mobility: closing the emissions gap report*, published by the Council in collaboration with Accenture Strategy, examines the growth in sales of EVs as the latest technologies to increase average fuel efficiency and meet these stringent economy standards, set in all three markets [EU/US/China], referred to as the “EV gap”.

In the EU, the EV gap is 1.4 million, 10% of the estimated 2020 projected passenger sales, in the US, 0.9 million (11%) and in China roughly 5.3 million, 22% of the projected passenger car sales. . . .

By 2020 each market would need an additional [electricity generation of]:

  • 3.7 TWh (equivalent to 734,000 homes) in the EU
    4.5 TWh (equivalent to 367,000 homes) in the US
    26.2 TWh (equivalent to 17 million homes) in China
. . . .

* http://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/E-Mobility-Closing-the-emissions-gap_full-report_FINAL_2016.06.20.pdf

Interesting. so:
US home - 12.2 kWH
UK home - 5.04 kWH
C home - 1.54 kWH
 
DNAinaGoodWay said:
16% seems a stretch with fed credits poised to begin phase out, limited model offerings, and consumer indifference. Maybe if MSRPs come down and gas goes up. More incentives are iffy.
Note that 16% is the average for all three regions combined. Realistically it's on China, with the EU and U.S. relatively minor players. Even so, getting to even 11% here by 2020 seems very unlikely seeing as we remain below 1% now, barring a major gas price spike. Absent that I could see Gen 2 PEVs getting us to maybe 5% market share by the end of their product cycle, which would be two to four years past 2020.
 
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