Hybrid market share peaked in 2013, down since then

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GRA

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Via GCR: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1108483_hybrid-market-share-peaked-in-2013-down-since-then

What's a "green car"? Is it a hybrid? A zero-emission vehicle? One that plugs in? Or just one that uses less fuel than other cars in its segment? It's a perpetual conundrum, for Green Car Reports among others, but it illustrates one of the longstanding challenges in the field.
Will the market for green cars expand as more enter the market, or is it limited—and will newer kinds of green cars supersede older ones? . . . .

[Graph]

On the other hand, over that time, sales of plug-in electric vehicles have risen from zero in 2007 to 96,000 in hybrids' peak year of 2013 to roughly 160,000 last year. (Looking at the total sales numbers, the hybrid sales shown above do not include plug-in hybrids, which are counted separately from the total above.)

The image came in a tweet from Teryn Norris, a former White House appointee at the U.S. Department of Energy.

He wrote, "To appreciate the challenge of decarbonizing transport, see: 16 years since intro, hybrids are just 2 percent of U.S. auto sales—and falling from 2013 peak."

If you add back roughly 73,000 plug-in hybrids, last year's total for all types of hybrids rises to more than 420,000. On top of that, an additional 84,000 battery electric vehicles were sold—bringing the green-car total to more than half a million, out of a total market last year of 17.55 million. That's 2.85 percent of the total, or better than every hybrid market-share year except for the peak of 2013, when it was 3.2 percent. That said, the U.S. had higher gasoline prices in 2013 than it had during much of last year—and sales of conventional hybrid cars vary quite directly with gasoline price. . . .

The Bolt EV and other mass-priced electric cars to follow over the next two years will likely test the idea that "green cars" will remain a tiny niche in perpetuity. If those cars can sell better than today's green cars—the Toyota Prius lineup alone does more than 300,000 units in its best years—then perhaps they can appeal to a broader swath of the mass market. . . .
 
Hybrids are a compromise. You give up performance and pay a higher initial price for an increase in economy.

Plug-In Hybrids are a far better compromise (IMO). They cost more, but you can have a net gain in performance. Plus you gain the convenience of home fueling.

I am not surprised that hybrids sales are declining, given the far better options available today.
 
I agree, regarding hybrids. Hybrids are only about fuel economy. Gasoline is cheap right now. I wouldn't want a hybrid unless it was a plug-in hybrid with an electric range large enough to cover my daily commute.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
Hybrids are a compromise. You give up performance and pay a higher initial price for an increase in economy. <snip>
All designs are compromises, and there's absolutely nothing about hybrid tech that requires that you give up performance - that's a design choice. The new Acura NSX is a hybrid (as was the Porsche 918 Spyder), but I don't think anyone would suggest that either gives up performance. Here's a description of the NSX powertrain:
The highlight here is the Sport Hybrid SH-AWD system, which supplements the 500-horsepower twin-turbo V6 with three electric motors, making 573 peak ponies. The two front motors each act on a front wheel, doing all kinds of tricks to help the car corner faster, brake harder, and accelerate like the proverbial cannon shot. They help make the NSX more stable at high speed, and let you sneak up on unsuspecting video producers at low speed. Then there's the third motor sandwiched between the engine and nine-speed transmission, which never lets a shift go by without filling in the milliseconds with velvety torque.
http://www.autoblog.com/2017/01/24/2017-acura-nsx-autoblog-technology-of-the-year-finalist/

Then there's all the Formula 1 cars using KERS.
 
GRA said:
GetOffYourGas said:
Hybrids are a compromise. You give up performance and pay a higher initial price for an increase in economy. <snip>
All designs are compromises, and there's absolutely nothing about hybrid tech that requires that you give up performance - that's a design choice. The new Acura NSX is a hybrid (as was the Porsche 918 Spyder), but I don't think anyone would suggest that either gives up performance. Here's a description of the NSX powertrain:
The highlight here is the Sport Hybrid SH-AWD system, which supplements the 500-horsepower twin-turbo V6 with three electric motors, making 573 peak ponies. The two front motors each act on a front wheel, doing all kinds of tricks to help the car corner faster, brake harder, and accelerate like the proverbial cannon shot. They help make the NSX more stable at high speed, and let you sneak up on unsuspecting video producers at low speed. Then there's the third motor sandwiched between the engine and nine-speed transmission, which never lets a shift go by without filling in the milliseconds with velvety torque.
http://www.autoblog.com/2017/01/24/2017-acura-nsx-autoblog-technology-of-the-year-finalist/

Then there's all the Formula 1 cars using KERS.

Yes but we are talking about market share here. None of those performance cars make a dent in market share. The hybrids that do all have lower performance than comparable gas cars. Prius is obvious. Honda IMA based hybrids too (insight and civic).
 
GetOffYourGas said:
Yes but we are talking about market share here. None of those performance cars make a dent in market share. The hybrids that do all have lower performance than comparable gas cars. Prius is obvious. Honda IMA based hybrids too (insight and civic)
The problem is the circular reasoning in your argument. The fact that most hybrid sales to date have been of cars which emphasize MPG at the expense of everything else in no way means that HEVs can't have a different balance of priorities. For instance, here's what C&D had to say about the RAV4 hybrid vs. the regular model:
The hybrid all-wheel-drive system also allows greater regenerative braking because it can capture electrical energy through all four wheels rather than just the two driven ones as in most hybrids. The system achieves EPA fuel economy of 34 mpg city and 31 highway, each 1 mpg better than the NX, most likely because the RAV is at least 230 pounds lighter. More importantly, the RAV4 hybrid’s EPA combined mpg of 33 is 8 mpg higher than the RAV4 AWD with conventional power. And the hybrid’s claimed 8.1-second zero-to-60-mph time is nearly a full second quicker than what Toyota states for the conventional model.
Of course, all is not better than the ICE version:
Similarly, brake feel lacks the regular RAV’s linear response thanks to the difficulty of blending the regenerative braking with the hydraulic portion of the system. However, these brakes are improving with every new Toyota hybrid and you can still drive the RAV4 smoothly.

Otherwise, the RAV4 hybrid is comfortable and capable, albeit not at all sporting. The ride is smooth and well controlled, but if you start urging it quickly on a twisty road, you feel the hybrid powertrain’s additional 320 pounds and might prefer a little less body roll. The same goes for the steering, which lacks the direct feel of the Mazda CX-5’s—or the new RAV4 SE’s, for that matter.
Price difference is just $700. http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2016-toyota-rav4-hybrid-first-drive-review

Differently weighted priorities achieve different results. I'm sure that Toyota could have designed the RAV4 hybrid to be just as feeble in performance as a Prius and almost as fuel-efficient, but chose not to.
 
No, the problem is that you are applying my argument to low-volume high-performance cars, which is not what I was referring to. Intentionally or not, you are creating a straw man.

My argument is this:

The highest volume hybrids (by far, most notably the Prius, followed by other Toyota HSD hybrids, and then Ford's version) are a compromise. The compromise is much better in a PHEV. So PHEVs will cut into the market for buyers who want an efficient vehicle. And the low gas prices will cut into those sale looking for a lower TCO.

You even admit:

GRA said:
The fact that most hybrid sales to date have been of cars which emphasize MPG at the expense of everything else
...

This is my point. Most hybrids do emphasize MPG. PHEVs do better. Gas prices are lower. Therefore it is no surprise that hybrid sales have declined (i.e. the topic of this thread).

I don't disagree with the rest of your post. It just isn't really applicable to the topic at hand.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
No, the problem is that you are applying my argument to low-volume high-performance cars, which is not what I was referring to. Intentionally or not, you are creating a straw man.

My argument is this:

The highest volume hybrids (by far, most notably the Prius, followed by other Toyota HSD hybrids, and then Ford's version) are a compromise. The compromise is much better in a PHEV. So PHEVs will cut into the market for buyers who want an efficient vehicle. And the low gas prices will cut into those sale looking for a lower TCO.

You even admit:

GRA said:
The fact that most hybrid sales to date have been of cars which emphasize MPG at the expense of everything else
...

This is my point. Most hybrids do emphasize MPG. PHEVs do better. Gas prices are lower. Therefore it is no surprise that hybrid sales have declined (i.e. the topic of this thread).

I don't disagree with the rest of your post. It just isn't really applicable to the topic at hand.
The RAV4 hybrid is now the second best-selling HEV in the U.S., behind only the Prius, so while maximum MPG was once the major selling point for them (at least for the Birkenstock crowd), I think we're now seeing a shift to HEVs that can appeal to a much wider audience:
Is Toyota RAV4 Hybrid SUV hurting Prius V wagon sales?
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1104338_is-toyota-rav4-hybrid-suv-hurting-prius-v-wagon-sales

. . . Toyota unveiled the RAV4 Hybrid last year, but the first copies weren't delivered until November.

The pace of sales has escalated sharply since then. Last month [May], the company delivered a whopping 4,185 hybrid RAV4s—out of a total of 32,261 RAV4s sold.

Meanwhile, sales of the company's high-efficiency Prius lineup have struggled, despite the launch of an all-new and much improved fourth-generation Prius Liftback for 2016.

Right now, gasoline is cheap and SUVs of all sizes are hot. That hurts sales of hybrids, which track closely to gas prices. Moreover, no hybrid Prius (or any Ford) offers both an SUV form factor and all-wheel drive. Enter the RAV4 Hybrid, of which more than 15,000 have been sold in six months. Over the same period, the Prius V wagon (now in its fifth model year) sold just 9,868. . . .
Even the Gen. 4 Prius has begun paying more attention to driving dynamics to expand its potential market, because MPG alone is no longer enough. With current gas prices, unlike PHEVs (barring subsidies), an HEV like the RAV4 with only a $700 premium over its ICE stablemate and getting 1/3rd better MPG will have a much shorter payback period, and is definitely cost-effective.

In any case, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree for now, and we'll have to wait and see whether or not AFVs have a low hard ceiling beyond which they can't expand under current conditions, instead just shifting market share between types, or whether they can move beyond the early adopters/greens and interest mainstream buyers.
 
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