Zythryn wrote: GRA wrote:
I thought I or someone else had previously posted a link to this same story from some other site, but couldn't find it. There've been several making the same point. Mods please move if so. http://www.greencarreports.com/news/111 ... munds-says
Direct link to Edmunds' report:https://static.ed.edmunds-media.com/unversioned/img/industry-center/analysis/EV_Report_April17.pdf
The report specifically refers to what happened to sales in Georgia after repeal of their rebate (sales tanked). I've seen other stories also referencing the same thing happening in Denmark and the Netherlands after reduction/repeal of incentives. So, not that there was any doubt, but AFVs (other than high-end Teslas) remain dependent on government support, and can't compete yet without them under current conditions.
Will sales decline? Of course.
Does that mean it will kill EVs? No, of course not. Sales will, after a quick adjustment, continue to grow.
Except that hasn't happened anywhere incentives have been repealed (again, excepting Tesla, whose sales recovered after a few months in Georgia, but Tesla's aren't being bought for their monetary value). They've dropped and stayed down, growing very slowly if at all, and until other conditions change (price, range, charging infrastructure) they are unlikely to see any improvement.
From the Edmunds' report:
Once the state credit was eliminated in July 2015, sales of EVs came tumbling
down in Georgia, from 17 percent of all U.S. EV sales to 2 percent. This crash
was not uniform among all EVs. Sales of the Tesla Model S declined post credit
elimination but bounced back to normal levels within a few months. Nissan Leaf
sales, however, never rebounded after the credit elimination and are now at
parity with sales of the Tesla Model S.
Quoting the Edmunds' article which summarizes the report above:
What's driving the market for EVs and plug-in hybrids is not primarily the desire for better fuel economy or the salvation of the planet, according to the report. It's the federal tax credit and the similar rebates offered by some states.
Evidence of the get-a-good-deal approach can be found in how green-car shoppers do their research on Edmunds, according to the report. Car shoppers in search of electric cars are much more likely to view the site's manufacturer incentive and rebate pages than are people shopping for cars with internal combustion engines. In fact, incentive and rebate pages on Edmunds for EVs had 219 percent more traffic than their non-green-vehicle counterparts in January and February of this year.
A case study of what happens when tax credits disappear can be found in Georgia, which had been offering a $5,000 tax credit for zero-emission vehicles. In 2014, it had the second-highest EV sales rate in the U.S., just behind California, and accounted for 17 percent of all U.S. sales of electric cars. After Georgia eliminated the credit in July 2015, the EV market crashed, tumbling to just 2 percent of national sales.
The Edmunds report lays out the Catch-22 for EVs and plug-in hybrids: To achieve mainstream sales levels, they need a better national charging infrastructure and longer-range batteries. But without evidence of a market for such cars, it's hard to make the case for such investments. If the government pulls the plug, "the onus will be on automakers to keep sales afloat — most likely with their own incentive programs and at a detriment to their bottom lines," Edmunds concludes.