GRA
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Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:07 pm

I thought I or someone else had previously posted a link to this same story from some other site, but couldn't find it. There've been several making the same point. Mods please move if so.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/111 ... munds-says

Direct link to Edmunds' report:https://static.ed.edmunds-media.com/unversioned/img/industry-center/analysis/EV_Report_April17.pdf

The report specifically refers to what happened to sales in Georgia after repeal of their rebate (sales tanked). I've seen other stories also referencing the same thing happening in Denmark and the Netherlands after reduction/repeal of incentives. So, not that there was any doubt, but AFVs (other than high-end Teslas) remain dependent on government support, and can't compete yet without them under current conditions.
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Zythryn
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Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:15 pm

GRA wrote:I thought I or someone else had previously posted a link to this same story from some other site, but couldn't find it. There've been several making the same point. Mods please move if so.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/111 ... munds-says

Direct link to Edmunds' report:https://static.ed.edmunds-media.com/unversioned/img/industry-center/analysis/EV_Report_April17.pdf

The report specifically refers to what happened to sales in Georgia after repeal of their rebate (sales tanked). I've seen other stories also referencing the same thing happening in Denmark and the Netherlands after reduction/repeal of incentives. So, not that there was any doubt, but AFVs (other than high-end Teslas) remain dependent on government support, and can't compete yet without them under current conditions.


Overly dramatic.
Will sales decline? Of course.
Does that mean it will kill EVs? No, of course not. Sales will, after a quick adjustment, continue to grow.
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GRA
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Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:26 pm

Zythryn wrote:
GRA wrote:I thought I or someone else had previously posted a link to this same story from some other site, but couldn't find it. There've been several making the same point. Mods please move if so.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/111 ... munds-says

Direct link to Edmunds' report:https://static.ed.edmunds-media.com/unversioned/img/industry-center/analysis/EV_Report_April17.pdf

The report specifically refers to what happened to sales in Georgia after repeal of their rebate (sales tanked). I've seen other stories also referencing the same thing happening in Denmark and the Netherlands after reduction/repeal of incentives. So, not that there was any doubt, but AFVs (other than high-end Teslas) remain dependent on government support, and can't compete yet without them under current conditions.


Overly dramatic.
Will sales decline? Of course.
Does that mean it will kill EVs? No, of course not. Sales will, after a quick adjustment, continue to grow.

Except that hasn't happened anywhere incentives have been repealed (again, excepting Tesla, whose sales recovered after a few months in Georgia, but Tesla's aren't being bought for their monetary value). They've dropped and stayed down, growing very slowly if at all, and until other conditions change (price, range, charging infrastructure) they are unlikely to see any improvement.

From the Edmunds' report:
    The crash
    Once the state credit was eliminated in July 2015, sales of EVs came tumbling
    down in Georgia, from 17 percent of all U.S. EV sales to 2 percent. This crash
    was not uniform among all EVs. Sales of the Tesla Model S declined post credit
    elimination but bounced back to normal levels within a few months. Nissan Leaf
    sales, however, never rebounded after the credit elimination and are now at
    parity with sales of the Tesla Model S.


Quoting the Edmunds' article which summarizes the report above:
What's driving the market for EVs and plug-in hybrids is not primarily the desire for better fuel economy or the salvation of the planet, according to the report. It's the federal tax credit and the similar rebates offered by some states.

Evidence of the get-a-good-deal approach can be found in how green-car shoppers do their research on Edmunds, according to the report. Car shoppers in search of electric cars are much more likely to view the site's manufacturer incentive and rebate pages than are people shopping for cars with internal combustion engines. In fact, incentive and rebate pages on Edmunds for EVs had 219 percent more traffic than their non-green-vehicle counterparts in January and February of this year.

A case study of what happens when tax credits disappear can be found in Georgia, which had been offering a $5,000 tax credit for zero-emission vehicles. In 2014, it had the second-highest EV sales rate in the U.S., just behind California, and accounted for 17 percent of all U.S. sales of electric cars. After Georgia eliminated the credit in July 2015, the EV market crashed, tumbling to just 2 percent of national sales.

The Edmunds report lays out the Catch-22 for EVs and plug-in hybrids: To achieve mainstream sales levels, they need a better national charging infrastructure and longer-range batteries. But without evidence of a market for such cars, it's hard to make the case for such investments. If the government pulls the plug, "the onus will be on automakers to keep sales afloat — most likely with their own incentive programs and at a detriment to their bottom lines," Edmunds concludes.
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Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Wed May 03, 2017 11:39 am

Anyone know how many LEAFs Nissan has sold in the USA? Just curious as to when federal the tax credit phaseout is likely to begin for Nissan.
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Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Wed May 03, 2017 12:27 pm

GRA wrote:Except that hasn't happened anywhere incentives have been repealed (again, excepting Tesla, whose sales recovered after a few months in Georgia, but Tesla's aren't being bought for their monetary value). They've dropped and stayed down, growing very slowly if at all, and until other conditions change (price, range, charging infrastructure) they are unlikely to see any improvement.
I find that you cannot make your negative points about BEVs without excepting Teslas. But Teslas ARE BEVs, are they not?
GRA wrote:From the Edmunds' report:
    The crash
    Once the state credit was eliminated in July 2015, sales of EVs came tumbling
    down in Georgia, from 17 percent of all U.S. EV sales to 2 percent. This crash
    was not uniform among all EVs. Sales of the Tesla Model S declined post credit
    elimination but bounced back to normal levels within a few months. Nissan Leaf
    sales, however, never rebounded after the credit elimination and are now at
    parity with sales of the Tesla Model S.
Nothing surprising there. The population of GA is 3% of the population of the US. It is not at all surprising that other states that DO have incentives will capture more than their share of the per capita BEV sales.
GRA wrote:Evidence of the get-a-good-deal approach can be found in how green-car shoppers do their research on Edmunds, according to the report. Car shoppers in search of electric cars are much more likely to view the site's manufacturer incentive and rebate pages than are people shopping for cars with internal combustion engines. In fact, incentive and rebate pages on Edmunds for EVs had 219 percent more traffic than their non-green-vehicle counterparts in January and February of this year.
Incentives for cars with internal-combustion engines are either much smaller or nonexistent, so this is not the least bit surprising.

The fact is that YTD (through March) in 2017 the Nissan LEAF still outsells all other BEVs, PHEVs and fuel-cell powered cars worldwide.

Nothing will ever kill BEVs again, period.
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Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Wed May 03, 2017 1:15 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:Anyone know how many LEAFs Nissan has sold in the USA? Just curious as to when federal the tax credit phaseout is likely to begin for Nissan.


Nissan is about halfway there.

Year Sales (US)
2011 9674
2012 9819
2013 22610
2014 30200
2015 17269
2016 14006
2017 4350
TOTAL 107928

*2017 is YTD through the end of April.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
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Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Wed May 03, 2017 2:54 pm

RegGuheert wrote:Nothing will ever kill BEVs again, period.


That's a fact.
I think by the time Nissan finally exhausts it's Federal credits, BEV pricing will not be the gating item to EV adoption.
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GRA
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Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Wed May 03, 2017 6:26 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:Except that hasn't happened anywhere incentives have been repealed (again, excepting Tesla, whose sales recovered after a few months in Georgia, but Tesla's aren't being bought for their monetary value). They've dropped and stayed down, growing very slowly if at all, and until other conditions change (price, range, charging infrastructure) they are unlikely to see any improvement.
I find that you cannot make your negative points about BEVs without excepting Teslas. But Teslas ARE BEVs, are they not? <snip rest>

Sure, but I except Tesla because they're luxury-priced cars, and the Model S/X simply operate in a different league where transportation value for money isn't a factor. An extra $7.5k (or more incl. state subsidies) on top of a starting price 10x times that simply doesn't have the same impact for their buyers, and they have the range that all other BEVs (until the Bolt) lacked - even if they didn't, the people buying them are unlikely to be in the position of depending on a single car for all their transportation needs (obviously there are exceptions like dgpcolorado).

I think GM and Nissan's mistake was trying to start a new, high-tech product in the middle-price range, rather than starting at the top end as Tesla did (and every other high-tech product has) and letting the price come down as economies of scale kicked in. That way, they could have built cars that were a lot more compelling off the bat instead of compromised to keep the price down, and generated more positive buzz. IMO GM should have made something like the CT6 rather than the Volt and sold it as a Cadillac, and Nissan should have put out a big Infiniti rather than the LEAF. The ELR's problem wasn't that it was too expensive, it was because its performance wasn't in the same league as its comparably-priced competitors (the insulting ad campaign didn't help). Whether the CT6 can recoup that potential market is doubtful now that there's a fair amount of competition, but if it had debuted in Dec. 2010 instead of 2017? It would have won Car of the Year (instead of the Volt), and would have generated a lot more free advertising, leaving people waiting for the mass-market follow-on (as people are now waiting on the Model 3).

RegGuheert wrote: Nothing will ever kill BEVs again, period.

I agree, nothing will kill them outright, but deployment would unquestionably be massively slower if subsidies were pulled. Even with subsidies that essentially halve the price of the car and make them cheaper to buy than far less-expensive ICEs plus lots of other perks, Norway hasn't been able to go over 40% of sales, which shows just how much resistance there is. IDK about you, but if I had that choice a PEV would be a no-brainer. Without them, would sales even reach 5% there even with more expensive gas, or would they be down in the 1% range as they are in the U.S. (with far smaller subsidies than Norway gives, but still substantial)?
Last edited by GRA on Fri May 05, 2017 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Wed May 03, 2017 6:34 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:Anyone know how many LEAFs Nissan has sold in the USA? Just curious as to when federal the tax credit phaseout is likely to begin for Nissan.

Rough calc done in my head using IEVS numbers, 105-110k. See this article from last year for one estimate:
When Will The $7,500 US Credit Expire For The Tesla Model 3…And Everyone Else?
http://insideevs.com/when-will-the-7500-us-credit-expire-for-the-tesla-model-3-and-everyone-else/
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GetOffYourGas
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Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Thu May 04, 2017 5:38 am

Stanton wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:Nothing will ever kill BEVs again, period.


That's a fact.
I think by the time Nissan finally exhausts it's Federal credits, BEV pricing will not be the gating item to EV adoption.


I wish I had your optimism. I don't think the tax credits going away will kill BEVs. But if Trump kills the EPA and strips CARB of its power? That could be the death knell in the US.

Europe and Asia are a different story. But the same conclusion. If all subsidies went away, it could spell the end of BEVs there too.

GRA wrote:
dgpcolorado wrote:Anyone know how many LEAFs Nissan has sold in the USA? Just curious as to when federal the tax credit phaseout is likely to begin for Nissan.

<span>Rough calc done in my head using IEVS numbers, 105-110k. See this article from last year for one estimate:
When Will The $7,500 US Credit Expire For The <a href="http://www.myelectriccarforums.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=67" class="interlinkr">Tesla Model 3<span class="tip">Visit the Tesla Model 3 Forum</span></a>…And Everyone Else?
http://insideevs.com/when-will-the-7500-us-credit-expire-for-the-<a%20href="http://www.myelectriccarforums.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=67"%20class="interlinkr">Tesla<span%20class="tip">Visit%20the%20Tesla%20Forum</span></a>-model-3-and-everyone-else/</span>


Why do a rough calculation in your head when I gave the raw numbers (and source) above?
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