GRA
Posts: 7112
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Wed Jun 21, 2017 6:23 pm

Via IEVS:
Denmark Plug-In Vehicles Sales Tank As Subsidies Vanish
http://insideevs.com/denmark-electric-c ... es-vanish/

Denmark, once one of the fastest growing plug-in electric car markets in the world in 2015, has learned the hard way that its decision to re-phase in an import tax too quickly, has collapsed the country’s EV segment, and now looks to at least temporarily rectify the situation.

In 2015 sales of plug-in cars amounted 5,298 units, including 2,738 Tesla Model S. However in the subsequent year, just 1,438 were moved with Tesla taking the largest hit. The US EV-maker plunged to just 176 sales in 2016 (98-Model X, 78-Model S)

Sales in the first quarter of this year (2017) decreased by 60.5%, while the average inside the European Union increased by 30%, including a 80% gain in Sweden (“thanks to a wide range of subsidies, including a five-year tax break and a 40,000 kronor ($4,600) purchase premium”).

The cause of all those changes? The import tax of 180%, from which plug-ins were originally exempted.

In 2016 government launched process of phasing-out the exemptions (planned for 2016-2020), which resulted in December of 2015 surging through the proverbial sales roof…and then demand shriveled up thereafter (see chart below). . . .

“But on April 18, having taken note of the drop in sales, the government decided to change the rules. . . .

The new rules mean the transition to a post-subsidy era has been postponed until at least 5,000 new electric cars are sold over the 2016-2018 period. Tax breaks will in any case be progressively eliminated as of 2019, regardless of sales numbers. The plan envisages a 40 percent registration tax minus a 10,000 kroner ($1,500) deduction in 2019, with the tax rising to 65 percent in 2021, 90 percent in 2021 and 100 percent in 2022.”


In other news, also via IEVS:
Pure Electric Vehicle (BEV) Sales Surpass PHEVs In Europe For First Time Since Late 2015
http://insideevs.com/bev-sales-surpass-phevs-in-europe/

Europe is showing more interest again in all-electric vehicles over plug-in hybrids, as after several quarters of PHEV-love the pendulum has swung back to BEVs for the first time since the Fall of 2015.

The reasons for that are simple. There are now more attractive all-electric models (or at least new versions of first generation cars with longer ranges). The Renault ZOE Z.E. 40 (41 kWh) is now the best seller in Europe, supported by the longer-range BMW i3 and relative newcomer – the Tesla Model X.

On the other side, plug-in hybrids this year are struggling in the Netherlands after a favorable tax incentive program ended.

Without Netherlands (previously the largest PHEV market in Europe), and less incentives also in the UK, plug-in hybrids have lost some momentum. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Zythryn
Posts: 923
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:43 am

GRA, that is simply support for the idea that cutting incentives will slow sales.
This seems pretty self evident and I don't think anyone would disagree.

My point is simply that the loss of incentives will not "kill" the EV market.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt & Leaf
Current owner of Model S
http://www.netzeromn.com

GRA
Posts: 7112
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Fri Jun 23, 2017 4:27 pm

Zythryn wrote:GRA, that is simply support for the idea that cutting incentives will slow sales.
This seems pretty self evident and I don't think anyone would disagree.

My point is simply that the loss of incentives will not "kill" the EV market.

And I agreed upthread that "kill" is hyperbole. "Massively slow, and limit to only the most ideologically committed or those who can afford to throw money away on premium-priced vehicles" (in the U.S., with our low gas prices) is how I would describe it.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Zythryn
Posts: 923
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Sat Jun 24, 2017 4:01 am

GRA wrote:
Zythryn wrote:GRA, that is simply support for the idea that cutting incentives will slow sales.
This seems pretty self evident and I don't think anyone would disagree.

My point is simply that the loss of incentives will not "kill" the EV market.

And I agreed upthread that "kill" is hyperbole. "Massively slow, and limit to only the most ideologically committed or those who can afford to throw money away on premium-priced vehicles" (in the U.S., with our low gas prices) is how I would describe it.


Perhaps. However I do believe that depends upon the degree of change as well as the percent of total cost.
For example, eliminating all incentives in CA will have a bigger effect on CA sales than elimaring all incentives in MN (as our incentives are lower).

Also, eliminating incentives from a $30k car will have a greater effect than on a $80k car.
In addition, the pricing of the cars will have an impact. If the car price is lowered to offset the incentive loss, that could minimize the effect.

I think your definition is at one extreme. We will get to see the results soon though.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt & Leaf
Current owner of Model S
http://www.netzeromn.com

GRA
Posts: 7112
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:35 pm

Zythryn wrote:
GRA wrote:<snip> I agreed upthread that "kill" is hyperbole. "Massively slow, and limit to only the most ideologically committed or those who can afford to throw money away on premium-priced vehicles" (in the U.S., with our low gas prices) is how I would describe it.

Perhaps. However I do believe that depends upon the degree of change as well as the percent of total cost.
For example, eliminating all incentives in CA will have a bigger effect on CA sales than elimaring all incentives in MN (as our incentives are lower).

Also, eliminating incentives from a $30k car will have a greater effect than on a $80k car.
In addition, the pricing of the cars will have an impact. If the car price is lowered to offset the incentive loss, that could minimize the effect.

I think your definition is at one extreme. We will get to see the results soon though.

In California, while the state incentive is nice, what's more valuable to most people are the HOV stickers, although their value is decreasing as the expiration date approaches (1/1/2019, although there's supposed to be a review later this year to see if they need to stop issuing new green [PHEV] stickers a year early, due to HOV lane congestion). I think what we're seeing now is people looking at the value of these cars much more critically than hitherto, which (I believe) is why the Bolt's sales have been somewhat disappointing to date, as the CCS network is too limited at the moment to make it a reasonable choice as a sole vehicle, it's QC rate is pretty slow, and it's pretty pricy for its size and equipment fit. If you need two cars anyway, with one used primarily for local trips, then for most people it's hard to justify the extra cost of the Bolt's range.

I expect we'll see the greatest BEV growth for now in cars with 125-150 miles of range, as they should be available for <=$30k even without incentives (cf. Ionic BEV), and I expect the same will be true for sub-$30k PHEVs like the Prime, with AER more limited than most early adopters insist on, but providing good price/performance for many people.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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