SageBrush
Posts: 1106
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Thu May 04, 2017 8:19 am

Setting aside EV enthusiasts and environmentalists, people buy EVs for a mixture of these reasons:

Purchase Cost and Fuel Cost
EV ownership perks like HOV access
Subsidies like tax credits

Underlying MSRP are
ZEV credits
Forward looking investment in new markets

--
Unless you control for all these variables, comparisons of say Denmark to another place is a fool's errand. Edmunds are fools.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

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DNAinaGoodWay
Posts: 2713
Joined: Mon Dec 17, 2012 1:43 am
Delivery Date: 03 Dec 2012
Leaf Number: 23156
Location: Central Massachusetts

Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Thu May 04, 2017 9:00 am

My next lease could be the last one with tax credits, or not if a slow poke OEM offers something good. But MSRPs will come down anyway.
'12 SL last reading @ 2 yr, 22k, 260 GIDs, 62.35 Ahr

'15 SV w/QC, Mfd 5/14, Leased 8/14, 292 GIDs, 64.38 Ahr when new

@ 25 months, 25k, 267 GID, 56.88 AHr
@ 36 months, 34k, 270 GID, 57.49 AHr


6.72 kW Array

GRA
Posts: 7237
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Fri May 05, 2017 2:28 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:
GRA wrote:
dgpcolorado wrote:Anyone know how many LEAFs Nissan has sold in the USA? Just curious as to when federal the tax credit phaseout is likely to begin for Nissan.

<span>Rough calc done in my head using IEVS numbers, 105-110k. See this article from last year for one estimate:
When Will The $7,500 US Credit Expire For The <a href="http://www.myelectriccarforums.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=67" class="interlinkr">Tesla Model 3<span class="tip">Visit the Tesla Model 3 Forum</span></a>…And Everyone Else?
http://insideevs.com/when-will-the-7500-us-credit-expire-for-the-<a%20href="http://www.myelectriccarforums.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=67"%20class="interlinkr">Tesla<span%20class="tip">Visit%20the%20Tesla%20Forum</span></a>-model-3-and-everyone-else/</span>

Why do a rough calculation in your head when I gave the raw numbers (and source) above?

Either because I was writing my answer without looking ahead to follow-on posts, or because yours and Stanton's hadn't appeared yet for some reason. IDK which was the case here, but I don't remember even seeing those posts at the time I wrote my replies. Usually I read all the posts before replying, but if I'm pushed for time I may skip it, and then forget to follow up. Thanks for providing the numbers, as I didn't have time to cut and paste them all.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 7237
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Fri May 05, 2017 4:10 pm

In a related story, via IEVS:
Survey Says: In UK, Price, Fuel Economy More Important Than Green Cred For Car Buyers
http://insideevs.com/survey-says-in-uk- ... ar-buyers/

. . . According to the survey, there is three times as many people that prefer high-speed performance specs as a top priority for their rides, over green credentials.

Price, economy, style and comfort were mentioned as top considerations in the UK. Even crash safety loses to having the latest in-car gadgets, which is quickly becoming more and more important for consumers. . . .

The results of our research show that people are really only in touch with the immediately tangible aspects of the cars they buy and drive. That’s why the thought of spending money at the fuel pump every week or so seems more important than a trade-in or sale value in a few years’ time.

“We believe this is also why a car’s environmental credentials are at the bottom of the list for most people when they’re choosing their next vehicle.

“It’s not that people really don’t care about the environment – it’s just that the impact of your car on the environment is less immediately tangible compared with other factors.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1607
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Fri May 05, 2017 6:23 pm

GRA wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:

Why do a rough calculation in your head when I gave the raw numbers (and source) above?

Either because I was writing my answer without looking ahead to follow-on posts, or because yours and Stanton's hadn't appeared yet for some reason. IDK which was the case here, but I don't remember even seeing those posts at the time I wrote my replies. Usually I read all the posts before replying, but if I'm pushed for time I may skip it, and then forget to follow up. Thanks for providing the numbers, as I didn't have time to cut and paste them all.


Fair enough. And hey - your intuition was spot-on.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)

Bufordleaf
Posts: 102
Joined: Sat May 16, 2015 8:59 am
Delivery Date: 20 Dec 2014
Location: Buford, GA

Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Fri May 05, 2017 8:26 pm

GRA wrote:
The report specifically refers to what happened to sales in Georgia after repeal of their rebate (sales tanked)..


Yes of course sales tanked in GA immediately after the credit was eliminated, as many sales were pulled forward into the first half of 2015 b/c everyone knew the credit was going away. But after a settlement period, sales in GA did begin to recover. EV sales in H2 of 2016 were better than H2 of 2015. And full year sales in 2016 (no tax credit) were much better than full year sales in 2012 (which offered the $5k tax credit).

GA will be fine, just as EV sales will be fine even after all tax credits are eliminated. EVs are now starting to sell because people are realizing they are better. Plus the more that are sold, the more costs will come down, which means even more people will be able to afford them.
2015 Leaf S with QC

GRA
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Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Sat May 06, 2017 3:33 pm

Bufordleaf wrote:
GRA wrote:
The report specifically refers to what happened to sales in Georgia after repeal of their rebate (sales tanked)..


Yes of course sales tanked in GA immediately after the credit was eliminated, as many sales were pulled forward into the first half of 2015 b/c everyone knew the credit was going away. But after a settlement period, sales in GA did begin to recover. EV sales in H2 of 2016 were better than H2 of 2015. And full year sales in 2016 (no tax credit) were much better than full year sales in 2012 (which offered the $5k tax credit).

GA will be fine, just as EV sales will be fine even after all tax credits are eliminated. EVs are now starting to sell because people are realizing they are better. Plus the more that are sold, the more costs will come down, which means even more people will be able to afford them.

Sure, sales will gradually increase as the cars' performance improves, prices come down, and more people are familiar with them. But they simply won't see large-scale growth unless/until gas prices rise a lot, and remain dependent on subsidies for their modest market % until then. It's very simple: if subsidies are unnecessary and PEVs are capable of competing head to head with ICEs without them, then there's no justification for continuing them. While Georgia got rid of the $5k rebate, the $7.5k credit remains. Are you saying that PEV sales could grow significantly without it, given their current capabilities?
Last edited by GRA on Fri May 12, 2017 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GerryAZ
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Location: Phoenix, AZ

Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Fri May 12, 2017 3:47 am

If the various hidden subsidies on petroleum were eliminated, the price increases on gasoline and diesel would encourage more consumers to buy EVs and there would be less need for incentives.
Gerry
Silver LEAF 2011 SL rear ended (totaled) by in-attentive driver 1/4/2015 at 50,422 miles
Silver LEAF 2015 SL purchased 2/7/2015

tattoogunman
Posts: 98
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:17 pm
Delivery Date: 08 Jun 2016
Location: Plano, Texas

Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Fri May 12, 2017 11:37 am

I have read a few articles and seen a few videos online by various automotive publications/journalists who predict that EV prices will drop significantly once the tax credit expires. They were of the opinion that once the credits go, we will see prices on EVs that better reflect what they should realistically be selling for (i.e. a lot cheaper than they are now). I've also seen predictions that upwards of 8 out of 10 cars sold by 2030 (or thereabouts) will be an EV, but I think that is probably a bit optimistic. I guess we'll see..............

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TomT
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Location: Foothills of Granada Hills, CA
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Re: Ending tax credits would kill electric-car market, Edmunds says

Fri May 12, 2017 12:54 pm

Without the tax credits, and at current vehicle prices, I'd have to think twice...
59,991 miles/12 bars/289 Gids/68.54 AHr/101% SOH/101.64% Hx 7May15 w/ new Lizard (barely made the warranty).
71,770 miles/12 bars/256 Gids/59.04 AHr/88% SOH/87.92% Hx 3Mar16 at lease return.

Now driving a 2016 Volt Premier. Model 3 reserved.

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