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RegGuheert
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Re: Survey Finds That People Are Aware Of Tesla, Yet Many Are Still Uneducated About EVs

Thu May 18, 2017 9:34 am

cwerdna wrote:
Graffi wrote:Not that saving money is the reason, but we just bought a new Tesla S 75D. This one DOES include the Unlimited Supercharger use. We will be using it on our various cross-country and regional trips. We estimate over 15,000 miles before summer is over. Anyway, the way I was looking at it:
...
Useful Life: 1,000,000 miles
...
What about battery replacement? That is in the Maintenance cost. JMHO
Good luck w/a million miles on a Model S. If I does make it that far, I expect at least several drive unit replacements and battery pack replacements before the 8 year warranty/unlimited mileage warranty on those parts is over. After that, I suspect you'll find the car is a money pit, which you may start to encounter once the 4 year/50K basic warranty has passed. It will likely be increasingly uneconomical to continue spending $ to repair.

If you manage to do 1 million miles within 8 years, that's 125K miles/year.
It's so rare for ANY car to be driven 1,000,000 miles that a few years ago Honda gave a brand-new car to a customer who drove one of their products that far. I seriously doubt that BEV manufacturers will start making cars that last that long anytime soon. There are a bunch of reasons why this is so:

1) Drastically increasing the life of their products while not expanding their customer base by a similar amount would be financial suicide. (Although I admit that a single manufacturer doing this could be very successful if they were able to meet the demand.)
2) A vehicle with a 1,000,000-mile lifetime would have a significantly-higher price tag than competing products on the market. This would make it harder to sell.
3) Even a vehicle with a 1,000,000-mile lifetime can be destroyed in an accident one mile after being driven off the lot. While I cannot put my hands on the statistics, I suspect that a large percentage of TODAY'S vehicles are lost to accidents rather than repair costs.
4) Just like the LEAF batteries, many materials in modern automobiles are limited by CALENDAR life as well as cycle life. The average distance a vehicle is driven in a year in the US is 13,500 miles. That means that if the average vehicle lasted 1,000,000 miles, the average vehicle would be on the roads for 74 years. Vehicles driven fewer than 10,000 miles per year would be on the road for over 100 years, most outliving their original owner! In the UK, the situation is even more extreme, with the average annual mileage there dropping below 8,000. That means replacing the AVERAGE car in 125 years! I can imagine that companies and standards will advance so much in that amount of time that most parts will be expensive (and wasteful) to produce. (I will say here that this is one issue that will be largely addressed through car-sharing services.)
5) I'm not sure a 1,000,000-mile lifetime is a selling point for most consumers since many are more interested in purchasing status symbols than in making their vehicles last a long time.

BTW, I currently own a 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid which has been on the road for over 15 years. This car is extremely well-engineered and has required extremely minimal maintenance. It also has a achieved a lifetime fuel mileage of around 50 miles/gallon. Today, that car has about 110,000 miles on it. I'll let you know in 120 years if it makes it to 1,000,000 miles. :D
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

cwerdna
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Re: Survey Finds That People Are Aware Of Tesla, Yet Many Are Still Uneducated About EVs

Fri May 19, 2017 12:48 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:hole # 2; there is no indication whatsoever that Tesla has the ability to build a car that will last 250,000 miles without major repairs.

Agree or at least that the odds aren't very good that it will reach 250K w/o major repairs.
RegGuheert wrote:If you manage to do 1 million miles within 8 years, that's 125K miles/year. It's so rare for ANY car to be driven 1,000,000 miles that a few years ago Honda gave a brand-new car to a customer who drove one of their products that far. I seriously doubt that BEV manufacturers will start making cars that last that long anytime soon. There are a bunch of reasons why this is so:

Indeed. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-1653580 being on his 8th DU and reports like these (I have MANY more) don't inspire confidence:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-1603011 - 7 DU replacements
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-1664757 - same guy as above who said
As long as you get a -Q (or later if such a thing exists), I think this will be your last. 5 months and 12k miles on the -Q so far and it's been perfectly quiet. I've never gone 12k miles on a drive unit without starting to hear something, so it's very promising.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... car.36414/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-1798860
https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2 ... ap-up.html

Even not very early Model S have suffered DU noise and/or failure like https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-2079341 from a Nov 2015 build or https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-1774189 from Oct 2016.

I wouldn't be surprised about If Graffi besides needing replacement of DUs and battery pack at least once will require repair of the door handles (I've heard figures like $800 to $1300 a piece) and center touchscreen unit. The economics of that will become questionable as his vehicle approaches 1 million miles.
RegGuheert wrote:BTW, I currently own a 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid which has been on the road for over 15 years. This car is extremely well-engineered and has required extremely minimal maintenance. It also has a achieved a lifetime fuel mileage of around 50 miles/gallon. Today, that car has about 110,000 miles on it. I'll let you know in 120 years if it makes it to 1,000,000 miles. :D

Examples of long-lived Priuses (which have good reliability records) at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Lifespan/Operating_costs.

2 fas 4 u is one of the most notable guys who put 465K miles on his 09 Prius (was burning oil badly by that point) which he traded in for a '12 Prius v wagon. That wagon eventually had a bunch of serious probs past 300K miles, so he got rid of it at 369K miles. His '14 Prius v wagon is now past 300K miles.

'13 blue Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 blue Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)
'06 Prius

LeftieBiker
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Re: Survey Finds That People Are Aware Of Tesla, Yet Many Are Still Uneducated About EVs

Fri May 19, 2017 2:27 am

The most famous Million Mile Car is a Volvo P1800S. The body is original and all the numbers match (last I knew) but the engine was rebuilt several times, and I think the transmission at least once.

It's up to three million miles now:

http://nypost.com/2014/12/29/the-record-breaking-roadster-with-3-million-miles/


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2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium Package and no QC, and 2009 Vectrix VX-1 with 18 Leaf cells.

The most offensive, tasteless phrase in use here is "Pulled the trigger." I no longer respond to posts that use it.

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