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Chevy Bolt EV costs $28,700 to build, Tesla Model 3 a bit higher: analysis

Sun May 21, 2017 4:55 pm

Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: Chevy Bolt EV costs $28,700 to build, Tesla Model 3 a bit higher: analysis

Sun May 21, 2017 6:45 pm

GCR FUBARs its regurgitation of the UBS study.

That $28,700 cost is projected to be attainable by 2025, and only if GM can build and sell the Bolt in large numbers.

At the present:

...We estimate GM loses $7.4k (EBIT) with every Bolt sold today, mainly due to the lack of scale...

UBS itself buries the lede, which is reported in the short summary below:

Electric vehicles to cost the same as conventional cars by 2018

The cost of owning an electric car will fall to the same level as petrol-powered vehicles next year, according to bold new analysis from UBS which will send shockwaves through the automobile industry.

Experts from the investment bank’s “evidence lab” made the prediction after tearing apart one of the current generation of electric cars to examine the economics of electric vehicles (EVs).

They found that costs of producing EVs were far lower than previously thought but there is still great potential to make further savings, driving down the price of electric cars....

Although the costs of EVs and current cars will be the same for motorists by 2018, manufacturers will not reach parity until 2023, when they will make 5pc margins on EVs - about equal to the profit on current vehicles... ... cars-2018/

The major flaw in UBS analysis, IMO, is that it seems to ignore the fact that chevy dealers are already having to discount the Bolt by close to 10% from the list price, and what buyers will be willing to pay for a Tesla 3, and whether TSLA can build to that price point, is anyone's guess.

My guess still is that TSLA will lose money on the model 3 for many years to come, just as GM will with the Bolt.

Positive BEV margins will depend on production at higher numbers and lower costs than either the Bolt or the 3 are likely to achieve.

Nissan certainly sounds as if it understands this reality, and the LEAF 2 just might be the first BEV able to turn a profit.
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