GRA
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Navigant Research expects 2017 sales of plug-in electric vehicles in N America to be 50% greater than in 2016

Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:38 pm

Via GCC: http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/09/20170922-navigant.html

According to a new report from Navigant Research (Market Data: EV Geographic Forecasts), 2017 sales of PEVs in North America are on track to be 50% greater than in 2016. Beyond 2017, sales are likely to continue to grow, but the rate of growth will slow. Overall, in North America, the PEV market has grown by a factor of 10 since 2011.

    Part of this slowdown is simply the increase in the year-over-year denominator; another part is the likely phaseout of government subsidies in the first half of the 2020s. At that point, Navigant Research expects growth to be around the low teens. Once BEVs cross the cost parity threshold with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), the market is projected to return to a faster pace of growth that is longer lived. This inflection is likely to occur around 2025, when battery pack prices drop to around $150/kWh. By 2026, Navigant Research expects PEV penetration to be between 7% (in the conservative scenario) and 11% (in the aggressive) of overall LDV sales.

    —“Market Data: EV Geographic Forecasts. . . .”

Add salt to taste.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
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Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Navigant Research expects 2017 sales of plug-in electric vehicles in N America to be 50% greater than in 2016

Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:51 pm

$150 a kWh (pack) ?!
Elon Musk and Tesla are already there.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

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RegGuheert
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Re: Navigant Research expects 2017 sales of plug-in electric vehicles in N America to be 50% greater than in 2016

Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:17 pm

Historical growth rates in PEVs (based on InsideEVs' Monthly Scorecard):

2011->2012: 202%
2012->2013: 85%
2013->2014: 26%
2014->2015: -5%
2015->2016: 37%
2016->2017: 26% (Est.)

I have no idea where they are getting 50% growth for 2017 over 2016. It appears to be about half that. Makes me wonder about the rest of their research.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

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