According to a new report from Navigant Research (Market Data: EV Geographic Forecasts), 2017 sales of PEVs in North America are on track to be 50% greater than in 2016. Beyond 2017, sales are likely to continue to grow, but the rate of growth will slow. Overall, in North America, the PEV market has grown by a factor of 10 since 2011.
Part of this slowdown is simply the increase in the year-over-year denominator; another part is the likely phaseout of government subsidies in the first half of the 2020s. At that point, Navigant Research expects growth to be around the low teens. Once BEVs cross the cost parity threshold with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), the market is projected to return to a faster pace of growth that is longer lived. This inflection is likely to occur around 2025, when battery pack prices drop to around $150/kWh. By 2026, Navigant Research expects PEV penetration to be between 7% (in the conservative scenario) and 11% (in the aggressive) of overall LDV sales.
—“Market Data: EV Geographic Forecasts. . . .”
Add salt to taste.