Navigant Research expects 2017 sales of plug-in electric vehicles in N America to be 50% greater than in 2016

My Nissan Leaf Forum

Help Support My Nissan Leaf Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.

GRA

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 19, 2011
Messages
14,018
Location
East side of San Francisco Bay
Via GCC: http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/09/20170922-navigant.html

According to a new report from Navigant Research (Market Data: EV Geographic Forecasts), 2017 sales of PEVs in North America are on track to be 50% greater than in 2016. Beyond 2017, sales are likely to continue to grow, but the rate of growth will slow. Overall, in North America, the PEV market has grown by a factor of 10 since 2011.

  • Part of this slowdown is simply the increase in the year-over-year denominator; another part is the likely phaseout of government subsidies in the first half of the 2020s. At that point, Navigant Research expects growth to be around the low teens. Once BEVs cross the cost parity threshold with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), the market is projected to return to a faster pace of growth that is longer lived. This inflection is likely to occur around 2025, when battery pack prices drop to around $150/kWh. By 2026, Navigant Research expects PEV penetration to be between 7% (in the conservative scenario) and 11% (in the aggressive) of overall LDV sales.

    —“Market Data: EV Geographic Forecasts. . . .”
Add salt to taste.
 
Historical growth rates in PEVs (based on InsideEVs' Monthly Scorecard):

2011->2012: 202%
2012->2013: 85%
2013->2014: 26%
2014->2015: -5%
2015->2016: 37%
2016->2017: 26% (Est.)

I have no idea where they are getting 50% growth for 2017 over 2016. It appears to be about half that. Makes me wonder about the rest of their research.
 
RegGuheert said:
Historical growth rates in PEVs (based on InsideEVs' Monthly Scorecard):

2011->2012: 202%
2012->2013: 85%
2013->2014: 26%
2014->2015: -5%
2015->2016: 37%
2016->2017: 26% (Est.)

I have no idea where they are getting 50% growth for 2017 over 2016. It appears to be about half that. Makes me wonder about the rest of their research.
It looks like my estimate was dead on while Navigant's was nearly double of the actual. I wonder what they were smoking...
 
RegGuheert said:
RegGuheert said:
Historical growth rates in PEVs (based on InsideEVs' Monthly Scorecard):

2011->2012: 202%
2012->2013: 85%
2013->2014: 26%
2014->2015: -5%
2015->2016: 37%
2016->2017: 26% (Est.)

I have no idea where they are getting 50% growth for 2017 over 2016. It appears to be about half that. Makes me wonder about the rest of their research.
It looks like my estimate was dead on while Navigant's was nearly double of the actual. I wonder what they were smoking...
I imagine they were counting on the Model 3 to arrive more or less on time - oh wait, that takes us back to your question.
 
Back
Top