LeftieBiker
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Delivery Date: 31 May 2013
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:27 pm

Here are historical growth rates in PEVs (based on InsideEVs' Monthly Scorecard):

2011->2012: 202%
2012->2013: 85%
2013->2014: 26%
2014->2015: -5%
2015->2016: 37%
2016->2017: 26%


I'm no mathematician, but the above do not suggest anything like an exponential growth curve to me. The rate actually drops several times, and growth is negative at one point. But hey, only time will tell.
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium and no QC, a 2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, and 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

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RegGuheert
Posts: 5660
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:52 pm

Agreed that only time will tell.

A four-year doubling rate is the same as a 19% annualized growth. I expect massive growth numbers for the next three years. Here are my predictions for US PEV sales:

2018: 300,000 PEVs sold, or a 50% growth rate
2019: 450,000 PEVs sold, or a 50% growth rate again
2020: 600,000 PEVs sold, or a 33% growth rate

In other words, I predict 3X as many PEVs will be sold in 2020 as in 2017. The main reason I see high growth is because Tesla, GM and Nissan are all offering very compelling offerings during this period and all seem prepared to sell their products in large numbers.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

LeftieBiker
Posts: 7665
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 31 May 2013
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:38 pm

A four-year doubling rate is the same as a 19% annualized growth.


And drafting some 8' tall basketball players will increase the average height of the other players on the team, too. For what that's worth...
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium and no QC, a 2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, and 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

SageBrush
Posts: 1581
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:12 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Here are historical growth rates in PEVs (based on InsideEVs' Monthly Scorecard):

2011->2012: 202%
2012->2013: 85%
2013->2014: 26%
2014->2015: -5%
2015->2016: 37%
2016->2017: 26%


I'm no mathematician, but the above do not suggest anything like an exponential growth curve to me. The rate actually drops several times, and growth is negative at one point. But hey, only time will tell.

An exponential function is modeled as
y = a^x
E.g.,
y = e^kt

compared to a power function, modeled as
y = x^a

Yay for 10th grade Algebra II
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 5660
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:50 pm

Please let me know the next time US PEV YOY sales growth is below 20% per year.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

LeftieBiker
Posts: 7665
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 31 May 2013
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:26 pm

What is exponential growth? definition and meaning ...
http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/exponential-growth.html

Definition of exponential growth: Increase in number or size, at a constantly growing rate. It is one possible result of a reinforcing feedback loop that makes a population or system grow (escalate) by increasingly higher amounts. ...
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium and no QC, a 2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, and 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

GRA
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Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:53 pm

Via GCR:
California leads US in electric-car use, planning: here's what others can learn
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/posting.php?mode=reply&f=7&t=25119

The article and the report its based on make many of the same points re needed charging infrastructure I did upthread:
A Bloomberg editorial on what the state can teach other localities, for example, cites a new city law in San Francisco taking effect this year that requires at least 10 percent of parking spaces in new buildings to have wiring installed for future plug-in car charging stations.

Back in 2013, Palo Alto changed its building code to require something similar. Thanks to one strong-willed EV advocate in the city, it's easier to install curbside parking on city land. . . .

Just looking at the infrastructure side of things, a study by UCLA and UC-Berkeley issued in summer 2017 found that, "Ultimately, some analysts estimate that the state will need private and public sources to provide 125,000 to 220,000 publicly accessible charging ports by 2020." That's far above the roughly 12,000 available in the state today.

Additionally, hundreds of thousands of other charging stations will be necessary at multi-unit dwellings, the report noted. . . .

Link to the summary of the UC report: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=25143

Direct link to the report itself: https://www.law.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Plugging-Away-June-2017.pdf
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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