GRA
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New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:26 pm

Via IEVS: https://insideevs.com/new-bill-proposed-in-california-requires-all-new-passenger-vehicles-to-be-zev/

Text of the bill is here: https://a19.asmdc.org/sites/a19.asmdc.org/files/pdf/ab-1745-bill-text.pdf

We'll see how far it gets; I figure the attempted* opening of the coast and ANWR to new oil and gas leases will provide the California legislature with additional incentive to give the Fed. government the finger.


*There will be court challenges that drag on for years.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

LeftieBiker
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Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:05 pm

If they want to actually pass a bill, they could require all new cars and most trucks sold to be at least "weak" hybrids, with engine shutoff when stopped, and if feasible at least minimal electric drive.
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GRA
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Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:13 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:If they want to actually pass a bill, they could require all new cars and most trucks sold to be at least "weak" hybrids, with engine shutoff when stopped, and if feasible at least minimal electric drive.

While the Dems have at least temporarily lost their supermajority, as the bill doesn't involve a tax or fee I don't think they need to water it down to pass it. And there's no doubt that Jerry Brown would sign it.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

dm33
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Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:45 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:If they want to actually pass a bill, they could require all new cars and most trucks sold to be at least "weak" hybrids, with engine shutoff when stopped, and if feasible at least minimal electric drive.

They should legislate the desired outcome, not the details of how to get there.
Zero emission, better gas mileage, reduced emission, those are worthwhile goals.
Stating that the car must be a hybrid doesn't work towards a goal, its an implementation detail. You could still end up with a worse gas mileage giant vehicle hybrid vs. a super fuel efficient vehicle implemented some other way.
ZEV is pretty clear and unambiguous.

LeftieBiker
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Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:56 pm

ZEV is pretty clear and unambiguous.


And as a 100% implementation goal it's un-passable. 80% ZEV vehicles might work.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
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GRA
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Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:04 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
ZEV is pretty clear and unambiguous.


And as a 100% implementation goal it's un-passable. 80% ZEV vehicles might work.

Un-passable in some states, but in California, the un-Trump?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

LeftieBiker
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Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:23 pm

How many ZE trucks are out there, GRA? How many ZE SUVs and crossovers? I'd love to see 100% ZEVs in California, but passing laws requiring what is practically impossible isn't going to help. Aren't you one of those who argue that the perfect is the enemy of the good?
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
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Nubo
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Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:04 pm

2040 is a LONG way off. I wouldn't be surprised if all passenger vehicles are electric by then anyway, mandates notwithstanding.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

LeftieBiker
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Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:36 pm

I think that 90% of them will have electric driving motors, but a substantial number will still use an ICE. Trucks especially.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
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GRA
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Re: New Bill Proposed In California Requires All New Passenger Vehicles To Be ZEV By 2040

Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:49 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:How many ZE trucks are out there, GRA? How many ZE SUVs and crossovers? I'd love to see 100% ZEVs in California, but passing laws requiring what is practically impossible isn't going to help. Aren't you one of those who argue that the perfect is the enemy of the good?

I have no problem with 2040, which is 22 years from now. Now, if the law specified 2025 as Norway has done, then no, that wouldn't be realistic, as it requires massive subsidiesand/or much higher gas prices to achieve. California leads the country in both total PEV sales and % of sales, and has a political demographic that's definitely in favor of such measures, as is the public: as of last March, PEVs (including PHEVs) had reached 4.8% of state LDV sales, with BEVs alone reaching 2.7%. I haven't seen CA numbers for the whole year yet, but for the country as a whole in 2017, PEVs made up 1.16% of LDV sales, so California's over 4 times the national rate.

The Model 3 is definitely going to boost those numbers significantly here. Combine that with the fact that we'll be seeing a lot of more affordable long-range BEVs arrive in the next few years, including several AWD CUVs, and that BEVs are forecast to reach cost/performance parity with ICEs by about 2025, and outlawing the sale of ICE LDVs after 2040 strikes me as entirely doable.

We might get there before that, depending on how quickly the charging infrastructure at workplaces, MFH and public locations grows. Assuming BEVs only and no use of FCEVs, a 2040 ICE ban will certainly require statewide rather than city by city requirements to provide charging at all such newly constructed facilities, if not retrofits of all existing ones, if it is to be feasible; otherwise, FCEVs/H2 stations (forecast to reach parity as above around 2030) will be needed to handle users of existing facilities which aren't retrofitted for charging. A complete phase-out of all existing ICEs will take another 15-20 years beyond that. And as the proposed law states, commercial trucks over 10,001 lb. GVWR aren't included in it, although cleaning up trucks, ports etc. is proceeding apace in any case.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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