LeftieBiker wrote:How many ZE trucks are out there, GRA? How many ZE SUVs and crossovers? I'd love to see 100% ZEVs in California, but passing laws requiring what is practically impossible isn't going to help. Aren't you one of those who argue that the perfect is the enemy of the good?
I have no problem with 2040, which is 22 years from now. Now, if the law specified 2025 as Norway has done, then no, that wouldn't be realistic, as it requires massive subsidiesand/or much higher gas prices to achieve. California leads the country in both total PEV sales and % of sales, and has a political demographic that's definitely in favor of such measures, as is the public: as of last March, PEVs (including PHEVs) had reached 4.8% of state LDV sales, with BEVs alone reaching 2.7%. I haven't seen CA numbers for the whole year yet, but for the country as a whole in 2017, PEVs made up 1.16% of LDV sales, so California's over 4 times the national rate.
The Model 3 is definitely going to boost those numbers significantly here. Combine that with the fact that we'll be seeing a lot of more affordable long-range BEVs arrive in the next few years, including several AWD CUVs, and that BEVs are forecast to reach cost/performance parity with ICEs by about 2025, and outlawing the sale of ICE LDVs after 2040 strikes me as entirely doable.
We might get there before that, depending on how quickly the charging infrastructure at workplaces, MFH and public locations grows. Assuming BEVs only and no use of FCEVs, a 2040 ICE ban will certainly require statewide rather than city by city requirements to provide charging at all such newly constructed facilities, if not retrofits of all existing ones, if it is to be feasible; otherwise, FCEVs/H2 stations (forecast to reach parity as above around 2030) will be needed to handle users of existing facilities which aren't retrofitted for charging. A complete phase-out of all existing ICEs will take another 15-20 years beyond that. And as the proposed law states, commercial trucks over 10,001 lb. GVWR aren't included in it, although cleaning up trucks, ports etc. is proceeding apace in any case.