GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Next 10 report finds California will meet or exceed original target of 1.5M ZEVs by 2025

Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:23 pm

Via GCC: http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/01/20180130-next10.html

. . . The Road Ahead for Zero-Emission Vehicles in California: Market Trends & Policy Analysis analyzes California’s ZEV market, including historic sales, costs, technology trends, forecasts and challenges. It also reviews policies and implications that could affect future market growth.

As of October 2017, 337,483 ZEVs have been sold in California. ZEV sales increased 29.1% between 2016 and 2017, bringing the state’s ZEV market share to 4.5%, compared to 3.6% in 2016. When the state’s 2025 ZEV goal was set in 2012, California needed to average 35.5% annual growth from 2013 to 2025 to meet its goal. But with a 53% increase in growth from 2013-2017, the annual growth rate required to meet the ZEV goal from 2017 on has decreased to 20% annually. . . .

However, California is lagging behind when it comes to ensuring its charging infrastructure keeps up with the growth of its electric vehicle fleet, the report finds. California has 16,549 public and nonresidential private-sector charging outlets—the most in the nation by far. But it works out to only 0.05 public charging outlets per California ZEV—one of the lowest ratios in the country. Studies show that California will need 125,000 to 220,000 charging ports from private and public sources by 2020 in order to provide adequate infrastructure.

Major findings of the report include:

. . . Total Cost of Ownership: . . .

    An analysis of 17 popular 2017 models found ZEVs can already be price competitive now, without government incentives.

    Based on 12,330 miles driven per year, the pure battery electric Nissan Leaf has lower five-year and 10-year life cycle costs than the internal combustion Hyundai Elantra and the plug-in hybrid Chevrolet Volt, even without the federal government incentive.

    The average Californian drives 14,435 miles every year. Accounting for that mileage and state and federal incentives, the smart fortwo ED and the Nissan Leaf have the lowest total cost of ownership of any of the 17 models studied, which include both ZEVs and internal-combustion-engine (ICE) vehicles. . . .

Direct link to the full 43 page report: http://next10.org/sites/next10.org/files/ca-zev-brief.pdf

There's also a graph in the report that states that battery costs declined at an annual rate of 19.5% between 2010-2016, and are predicted to decline at annual rates of 9.7% between 2016 and 2025, and 7.7% from 2025-2030 as the cost reduction curve flattens out.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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