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RegGuheert
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Re: What if car buyers aren't ready for electric cars, even in California?

Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:17 am

Stanton wrote:And they are not the target market for BEVs.
If even half of the ICE vehicles were replaced with BEV, it would have a dramatic impact on the economy/environment...and that says nothing about converting public transportation (to anything but petroleum-based products). I don't believe that will happen in my lifetime, but you get my point.
I'm willing to bet that nowhere near half of the cars in the U.S. are kept in a garage.

So I do agree with you that I should not have listed infrastructure as being needed to "cross the chasm", I DO feel it is necessary to address the needs/wants of the late majority.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
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Stanton
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Re: What if car buyers aren't ready for electric cars, even in California?

Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:50 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
Stanton wrote:And they are not the target market for BEVs.
If even half of the ICE vehicles were replaced with BEV, it would have a dramatic impact on the economy/environment...and that says nothing about converting public transportation (to anything but petroleum-based products). I don't believe that will happen in my lifetime, but you get my point.


I'm willing to bet that nowhere near half of the cars in the U.S. are kept in a garage.


You are probably right...but if even half of the ICE vehicles that are garaged were replaced with BEV, it would have a dramatic impact on the economy/environment.
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GRA
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Re: What if car buyers aren't ready for electric cars, even in California?

Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:25 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
Stanton wrote:And they are not the target market for BEVs.
If even half of the ICE vehicles were replaced with BEV, it would have a dramatic impact on the economy/environment...and that says nothing about converting public transportation (to anything but petroleum-based products). I don't believe that will happen in my lifetime, but you get my point.
I'm willing to bet that nowhere near half of the cars in the U.S. are kept in a garage.

So I do agree with you that I should not have listed infrastructure as being needed to "cross the chasm", I DO feel it is necessary to address the needs/wants of the late majority.

One of the shocking things to me was the high % of Los Angeles residents who live in MUDs. I expected San Francisco to be high (67%), but would never have guessed that the % would be 56% in L.A. Without statewide requirements for charging infrastructure in all new housing and retrofitting all existing housing, there's seems to be no way to cover the majority of the urban driving population's charging needs in less than 50 years, barring a major shift to mobility services (especially AV BEVs that can drive to and charge themselves at central points) rather than car ownership. Urban is the name of the game for BEVs, as that's where the biggest benefit is for both pollution and energy savings.
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The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

smkettner
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Re: What if car buyers aren't ready for electric cars, even in California?

Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:26 pm

Stanton wrote:
smkettner wrote:
Stanton wrote:After all, everyone (I know) has an EVSE in their garage.


I know plenty with no garage.


And they are not the target market for BEVs.
If even half of the ICE vehicles were replaced with BEV, it would have a dramatic impact on the economy/environment...and that says nothing about converting public transportation (to anything but petroleum-based products). I don't believe that will happen in my lifetime, but you get my point.

The title of the thread is asking if buyers in CA are ready. My reply was to say many in CA do not have and will not have access to home charging. Thus I say most are NOT READY and not able to take advantage of one of the greatest benefits of an EV,

This thread does not seem to be about the economic or environmental impact of mass EV adoption.
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cwerdna
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Re: What if car buyers aren't ready for electric cars, even in California?

Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:04 am

RegGuheert wrote:How many people can one EVSE at work reasonably support?

It depends on many factors such as battery size, OBC wattage, how far people are commuting from, pricing (if any), penalties for occupying a spot beyond a certain amount of time, whether folks charge at home at all before coming to work and placements of stations vs. parking spots (i.e how shareable as an EVSE or J1772 handle vs. parking spots: only reachable from 1 spot or by 4 to 6 spots?)

From my rough experience (but I'm not part of facilities at my work nor our Chargepoint admin so I don't have direct access to stats), I'd say each handle for free charging at my work w/no penalties for overstaying can probably handle 3-5 vehicles/day at max, unless folks intentionally limit how much/how long they charge for and unless a good notification system is set up for when they're done, have vacated a spot, etc. And, this is in the absence of any sort of EV valet or someone that goes around unplugging finished cars and plugging in waiting cars. This also assumes typical "business hours" and not a place w/multiple shifts. If it had multiple shifts and the place ran 16 to 24 hours/day, it could support more.

I don't recall what Chargepotnt's recommendations are but https://www.chargepoint.com/about/news/ ... -charging/ says
1. Scale Up
Workplaces have recognized they need one charging spot for every two EVs. This allows people to plug in when they get to work and then move their charged car at lunch so others can plug in during the afternoon...

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Re: What if car buyers aren't ready for electric cars, even in California?

Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:48 pm

Via GCR, in ref. to the topic article:
What will get more people to consider electric cars? Twitter poll results
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1115299_what-will-get-more-people-to-consider-electric-cars-twitter-poll-results

We asked our Twitter followers what it would take to get more mass-market U.S. buyers to consider plug-in electric cars for future vehicle purchases.

What will get more people to consider electric cars?

    53% Lower prices
    14% Carmaker marketing
    31% More public charging
    2% Environmental benefits
    414 votes

We offered four options in our Twitter poll, somewhat expecting at least two of them to get support from poll participants. That didn't happen. Instead, more than half of respondents (53 percent) chose "lower prices" as the one factor that will get more buyers interested in cars that plug in. That is entirely consistent with what survey data tells us about how shoppers approach choosing what's called a "consideration set" of vehicles to compare.

Anything with a base price (or monthly payment) above their range is automatically excluded—which is why low-payment, high-interest monthly lease deals have grown in popularity. In other words, until electric cars are within some measure of the same price as comparable gasoline vehicles (perhaps 10 or 15 percent?), many buyers will simply blank them out. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: What if car buyers aren't ready for electric cars, even in California?

Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:46 pm

GRA wrote:Via GCR, in ref. to the topic article:
What will get more people to consider electric cars? Twitter poll results
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1115299_what-will-get-more-people-to-consider-electric-cars-twitter-poll-results
When I saw this I decided the poll was a completely flawed in it's basic concept: If you want to learn what will get people to purchase an electric car, you won't find the answer by asking people who already have one.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GRA
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Re: What if car buyers aren't ready for electric cars, even in California?

Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:20 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:Via GCR, in ref. to the topic article:
What will get more people to consider electric cars? Twitter poll results
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1115299_what-will-get-more-people-to-consider-electric-cars-twitter-poll-results
When I saw this I decided the poll was a completely flawed in it's basic concept: If you want to learn what will get people to purchase an electric car, you won't find the answer by asking people who already have one.

GCR always includes this disclaimer when reporting the results of their Twitter polls:
As always, please note that our Twitter polls are far from scientifically valid, due to small sample size and self-selection by those who choose to participate.

However, these priorities are much the same ones raised by the general public in scientifically-conducted polls (which I've posted in the past), so in this case it seems the EV enthusiasts are paying attention to what non-enthusiasts say.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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