GRA
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:48 pm

SageBrush wrote:
GRA wrote:BEV drivers have largely been buying only a few dozen gallons worth of range/year from QCs because their BEVs were so poor for anything other than local use.

How do you explain the 80-90% home fueling percentage of the Tesla ?
For most people, and that includes ICE cars, the daily grind eats up most of the miles and fuel is local.

Sure, most driving is local, but how many Model S/X owners are limited to just a single car? After all, by buying a car which starts at more than twice the average price for all LDVs and which provides a poor transportation value for the money, it's clear that they've got excess cash to spend on inessentials. They can afford more than one car, and can also afford to fly for longer distances and rent when they get there. They've got lots of options, and a perusal of TMC shows many who opt for their ICEs for longer road trips.

We're just now starting to be at the point where a BEV can serve many people as their _sole_ car, and that will require the ability to charge for everyone using public charging, not just homeowners who have access to home charging, and not just locally but for all trips.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:52 pm

GRA wrote:If companies and governments wish to subsidize it in the early stages of deployment, okay, but that inevitably means roll out will be very slow, as is the case with Tesla's SCs and public charging deployment. Gas stations proliferated rapidly because lots of people were willing to build and operate them as a business, as they were profitable.
Tesla's Supercharger network was deployed within about four years across much of the planet to the point that Tesla cars can drive freely over virtually all of the U.S. and also in many other countries.

So, when you say that "roll out will be very slow, as is the case with Tesla's SCs" and when you say "Gas stations proliferated rapidly", we can only conclude that you have a very, very different pair of definitions for the words "slow" and "rapidly" than the rest of the English-speaking world. Do you really read so much history just so that you can distort the facts of history? Let's hope not.

In fact, when compared with the proliferation gas stations in the U.S., Tesla's Superchargers were deployed very rapidly.
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EVDRIVER
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:08 pm

GRA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
GRA wrote:BEV drivers have largely been buying only a few dozen gallons worth of range/year from QCs because their BEVs were so poor for anything other than local use.

How do you explain the 80-90% home fueling percentage of the Tesla ?
For most people, and that includes ICE cars, the daily grind eats up most of the miles and fuel is local.

Sure, most driving is local, but how many Model S/X owners are limited to just a single car? After all, by buying a car which starts at more than twice the average price for all LDVs and which provides a poor transportation value for the money, it's clear that they've got excess cash to spend on inessentials. They can afford more than one car, and can also afford to fly for longer distances and rent when they get there. They've got lots of options, and a perusal of TMC shows many who opt for their ICEs for longer road trips.

We're just now starting to be at the point where a BEV can serve many people as their _sole_ car, and that will require the ability to charge for everyone using public charging, not just homeowners who have access to home charging, and not just locally but for all trips.



I don't know a single Tesla X owner that uses a second car for longer trips. TMC is yet another forum that does not represent all Tesla drivers just like MNL and LEAF owners that have never heard of this place. To say inessential is a judgement call. Some people say a car is inessential and I would argue that many people use the cars for business and some see it as invaluable because of the high crash ratings, ask they many people that have walked away from incredible accidents. Value is a very subjective term for everyone. I value my life, not going to a gas station, being 100% solar powered, and many other things that are very subjective to others. I know people that value $5000 bottles of wine and others that value two buck upchuck from TJs.
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SageBrush
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:27 pm

GRA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
GRA wrote:BEV drivers have largely been buying only a few dozen gallons worth of range/year from QCs because their BEVs were so poor for anything other than local use.

How do you explain the 80-90% home fueling percentage of the Tesla ?
For most people, and that includes ICE cars, the daily grind eats up most of the miles and fuel is local.

Sure, most driving is local,

This is the only point that matters because it is fulfilled by destination chargers.
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GRA
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:54 pm

SageBrush wrote:
GRA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:How do you explain the 80-90% home fueling percentage of the Tesla ?
For most people, and that includes ICE cars, the daily grind eats up most of the miles and fuel is local.

Sure, most driving is local,

This is the only point that matters because it is fulfilled by destination chargers.

Maybe at the destinations you go to, but not the ones I do; most of my destinations will never get destination chargers because they don't have electricity. See my preceding post.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:01 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:
GRA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:How do you explain the 80-90% home fueling percentage of the Tesla ?
For most people, and that includes ICE cars, the daily grind eats up most of the miles and fuel is local.

Sure, most driving is local, but how many Model S/X owners are limited to just a single car? After all, by buying a car which starts at more than twice the average price for all LDVs and which provides a poor transportation value for the money, it's clear that they've got excess cash to spend on inessentials. They can afford more than one car, and can also afford to fly for longer distances and rent when they get there. They've got lots of options, and a perusal of TMC shows many who opt for their ICEs for longer road trips.

We're just now starting to be at the point where a BEV can serve many people as their _sole_ car, and that will require the ability to charge for everyone using public charging, not just homeowners who have access to home charging, and not just locally but for all trips.

I don't know a single Tesla X owner that uses a second car for longer trips. TMC is yet another forum that does not represent all Tesla drivers just like MNL and LEAF owners that have never heard of this place. To say inessential is a judgement call. Some people say a car is inessential and I would argue that many people use the cars for business and some see it as invaluable because of the high crash ratings, ask they many people that have walked away from incredible accidents. Value is a very subjective term for everyone. I value my life, not going to a gas station, being 100% solar powered, and many other things that are very subjective to others. I know people that value $5000 bottles of wine and others that value two buck upchuck from TJs.

Of course I'm generalizing, as are you. We all have our own priorities, but when I talk about transportation value for the dollar I mean just that, exclusive of any other considerations like air pollution, energy security, status, etc. Transportation value for the dollar is how much it costs you to go how far, how fast, and how conveniently, and in how much discomfort. For local use, my feet or bike provide the best transportation value for the dollar, but as the range increases, I have to deal with a wider variety of weather, time constraints press and I have to carry more people or things, an enclosed powered vehicle provides more transportation value. Cars provide fast, convenient, comfortable, effortless door-to-door service in a weather-protected. climate-controlled environment for lots of people and stuff. But any car as expensive as the Tesla has most of its value outside of its value as transportation, just as any other high-end auto does.
Last edited by GRA on Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:29 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:If companies and governments wish to subsidize it in the early stages of deployment, okay, but that inevitably means roll out will be very slow, as is the case with Tesla's SCs and public charging deployment. Gas stations proliferated rapidly because lots of people were willing to build and operate them as a business, as they were profitable.
Tesla's Supercharger network was deployed within about four years across much of the planet to the point that Tesla cars can drive freely over virtually all of the U.S. and also in many other countries.

So, when you say that "roll out will be very slow, as is the case with Tesla's SCs" and when you say "Gas stations proliferated rapidly", we can only conclude that you have a very, very different pair of definitions for the words "slow" and "rapidly" than the rest of the English-speaking world. Do you really read so much history just so that you can distort the facts of history? Let's hope not.

In fact, when compared with the proliferation gas stations in the U.S., Tesla's Superchargers were deployed very rapidly.

Ah, crap, I'd written a long reply, and it's disappeared. Well, a shorter second try:

I do have a different definition, as I look at whether or not I can repeat trips I've previously taken in ICEs in BEVs (Tesla or otherwise). Almost six (not four) years after the first SC was deployed, for off-interstate trips I still can't repeat most of them using SCs and in many cases can't do them at all. I'd given a long list of these trips, but here's just one: From the Bay Area, drive I-80 to Fernley, NV (can do), then across Nevada and Utah on U.S. 50 to I-70 (can't do), then turn off I-70 and visit Canyonlands N.P. (multiple overnight, no charging) and Natural Bridges N.M. (SCs at Moab and Blanding make those possible, albeit may require some care). From Natural Bridges, drive via S.R. 95/24/12 to/through Capitol Reef N.P.to Bryce N.P. and overnight there (can't do, no charging), then drive/to/through Zion via U.S. 89/S.R. 9 (overnight in Zion, limited dest. charging, but can't reach as above); then back to I-70 and return to Bay Area (can do if I can reach St. George, UT). As I'm normally driving to and parking at trailheads that lack electricity, destination charging is almost never an option, nor do I have any desire to re-route myself to or be forced to stay overnight at many locations that do have destination charging. Now, I could make that trip easily at any time in the past 80+ years (i.e. once the roads were built) in the least-expensive ICE I could buy, but still can't in any BEV.

I'd posted elsewhere the deployment numbers for gas stations in the U.S. from "The Gas Station in America", and repeat that here:

Here's the total # of U.S. stations from 1920 to 1990 (remember that the first U.S. gas station only opened in 1913, and the major boom in the U.S. car fleet came after WW1):

1920 15,000
1930 123,979
1958 193,948
1969 236,000 approx.
1970 216,059
1980 158,540
1990 111,657

Owing to SUVs and incredibly cheap gas, the number of stations then started to climb again, peaking in the first decade of this century around 165 or 170 thousand before rapidly decreasing again to the current total, as prices rose and people switched to more fuel efficient cars and drove less.

So, from zero to 15,000 in just 7 years, with a small but rapidly growing car fleet.

So, 7 years to 15,000, versus 5.75 years to 491 SCs (per supercharge.info today), and that's obviously just the U.S. "Gas-station" as defined above was the first purpose-built one, as opposed to gas sold in livery stables, general stores and the like. The latter are more akin to home charging for local use, as they were primarily for rich urban users who could afford luxury items like cars in small numbers. Obviously, the number of places gas was sold had to be greater, as most people couldn't make it at home (although the Model T was designed to run off farm-produced ethanol), but the fact was lots of companies were building stations and running them profitably without any subsidies, so the numbers exploded. Tesla is kind of building this local SC network now, to cover all the people who don't have home charging.

Even if we were to reduce the above number of gas stations by say 2/3rd to represent the "home charging" early period, the density and coverage of stations was much greater earlier, and that combined with the longer range of ICEs plus the ability to carry portable extra energy without adding substantial weight and bulk meant you could go far more places in the U.S. at a similar stage of ICE development.

If individual auto manufacturers have to fund their own networks and operate them non-profit, as Tesla claims it is doing, do you see any such rapid growth in QCs as was the case with the gas stations above? Is there any doubt that the growth of public charging would expand similar to the above if it were profitable, and lots of individual companies (rather than the auto manufacturer) were involved and financing it?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:15 am

GRA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
GRA wrote:Sure, most driving is local,

This is the only point that matters because it is fulfilled by destination chargers.

Maybe at the destinations you go to, but not the ones I do; most of my destinations will never get destination chargers because they don't have electricity. See my preceding post.


You are not typical. The other extreme is represented by the neighbors of mine when I lived in Marlborough , MA. The longest car trip they ever took was to Springfield MA. Roughly 70 miles one way. A Bolt charged at home only would serve 100% of their needs.

The important group of people now are the second 1%.

About 1% of vehicles sold are electric. What is needed to get to 2%? Once we get to 2%, the second 2% will be the key. What is needed to get to 4%? And so on.

I suspect you are in the last 10%. I don't pretend to see how the last 10% goes.
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SageBrush
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:39 am

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:This is the only point that matters because it is fulfilled by destination chargers.

Maybe at the destinations you go to, but not the ones I do; most of my destinations will never get destination chargers because they don't have electricity. See my preceding post.


You are not typical. The other extreme is represented by the neighbors of mine when I lived in Marlborough , MA. The longest car trip they ever took was to Springfield MA. Roughly 70 miles one way. A Bolt charged at home only would serve 100% of their needs.

The important group of people now are the second 1%.

About 1% of vehicles sold are electric. What is needed to get to 2%? Once we get to 2%, the second 2% will be the key. What is needed to get to 4%? And so on.

I suspect you are in the last 10%. I don't pretend to see how the last 10% goes.

Exactly

It is tedious to read people posting anecdotes as if they are majority or as you point out, the next likely adopters.
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GRA
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:50 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:This is the only point that matters because it is fulfilled by destination chargers.

Maybe at the destinations you go to, but not the ones I do; most of my destinations will never get destination chargers because they don't have electricity. See my preceding post.

You are not typical. The other extreme is represented by the neighbors of mine when I lived in Marlborough , MA. The longest car trip they ever took was to Springfield MA. Roughly 70 miles one way. A Bolt charged at home only would serve 100% of their needs.

The important group of people now are the second 1%.

About 1% of vehicles sold are electric. What is needed to get to 2%? Once we get to 2%, the second 2% will be the key. What is needed to get to 4%? And so on.

I suspect you are in the last 10%. I don't pretend to see how the last 10% goes.

So you're saying that most people in the east never take road trips? I agree that the active outdoors demographic of which I'm a part makes up a small % of the total population, but then we're also more concerned with pollution and other environmental issues than the average person, so we're a natural market for ZEVs. But many of the people in that demographic have also chosen occupations that don't pay all that well, but allow them the opportunity to spend time in the places they love, so affordability and reliability are also critical.

Besides, it's not as if driving to a major national park is a rare occurrence: just look at the attendance figures for Yosemite, Grand Canyon, Grand Teton, Yellowstone or Zion: over 3 to over 6 million/year, and I've spent time in all of them and many others. Tesla has installed gateway SCs that allow some access to Yosemite, Grand Teton and Yellowstone, Zion's reachable from St. George and the South Rim of the Grand Canyon from Flagstaff, but it still falls far short of providing convenient coverage to all these high-visitation parks.

For that matter, Tesla still hasn't initially completed all the primary interstates, even though that could have been done with well under 500 SC sites. By initial completion I mean SCs spaced within easy range of small battery cars charging to 80% and maintaining at least a 10% reserve, with allowances for speed, headwinds, terrain, HVAC use and degradation. Since Tesla has said that the Model 3 SR can add 130 miles (presumably rated miles) in 30 minutes, that implies that SCs should be spaced no more than 100-110 miles apart to allow for the above-mentioned factors. Providing SCs that approach the convenience and flexibility of gas stations will require much closer spacing, no more than 1/2 hour apart.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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