GRA
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:54 pm

SageBrush wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:Maybe at the destinations you go to, but not the ones I do; most of my destinations will never get destination chargers because they don't have electricity. See my preceding post.


You are not typical. The other extreme is represented by the neighbors of mine when I lived in Marlborough , MA. The longest car trip they ever took was to Springfield MA. Roughly 70 miles one way. A Bolt charged at home only would serve 100% of their needs.

The important group of people now are the second 1%.

About 1% of vehicles sold are electric. What is needed to get to 2%? Once we get to 2%, the second 2% will be the key. What is needed to get to 4%? And so on.

I suspect you are in the last 10%. I don't pretend to see how the last 10% goes.

Exactly

It is tedious to read people posting anecdotes as if they are majority or as you point out, the next likely adopters.

see my comments to WetEV - I've never claimed that I was a majority, but I do get tired of people telling me that a BEV would suit me or people like me now, when I know for a fact that it won't. I wouldn't bother sending suggestions in to Tesla for needed SC sites(and CAFCP for needed H2 fueling stations) to make their cars viable for people like me (such as the ones they've put in at Groveland, Fish Camp, Lone Pine, Topaz Lake, Mammoth, W. Yellowstone or Jackson) if I were okay with waiting for another dozen years or more.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:06 pm

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:You are not typical. The other extreme is represented by the neighbors of mine when I lived in Marlborough , MA. The longest car trip they ever took was to Springfield MA. Roughly 70 miles one way. A Bolt charged at home only would serve 100% of their needs.

The important group of people now are the second 1%.

About 1% of vehicles sold are electric. What is needed to get to 2%? Once we get to 2%, the second 2% will be the key. What is needed to get to 4%? And so on.

I suspect you are in the last 10%. I don't pretend to see how the last 10% goes.

So you're saying that most people in the east never take road trips?


Who said anything about most? I'm interested in the second 1% of people, the people that are likely to adopt an EV in the next 5 years or so. I'm not talking about majorities. Yet.

1%
2%
4%
8%
16%
32%
64%
WetEV
#49
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Evoforce
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:02 am

Since we are referring to charging a Tesla, Superchargers and home charging are not the only ways to charge. Level 2 are at most campgrounds and there are many other 240 volt outlets saturating this country. In addition to this, we can also charge by chademo with the correct adapter.

I have to agree with those who say that most Tesla drivers use their Tesla's instead of using ICE for road trips. I myself, take many adapters but rarely have to use any of them.
*2011 Leaf 1 bought 2/28/15 @ 28,000ish mi 10 bar (8 bars @ 11/25/15 @ 37,453 ) (New lizard @ 39,275 mi @ 1/20/2016) Now 52,166 mi.
*Tesla Model S 61,000 mi
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EVDRIVER
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Fri Mar 30, 2018 9:05 am

SageBrush wrote:
GRA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:How do you explain the 80-90% home fueling percentage of the Tesla ?
For most people, and that includes ICE cars, the daily grind eats up most of the miles and fuel is local.

Sure, most driving is local,

This is the only point that matters because it is fulfilled by destination chargers.



That's funny. Also when Model 3 sales go up expect this percentage to go in the other direction very fast.
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SageBrush
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:41 am

EVDRIVER wrote:
SageBrush wrote:
GRA wrote:Sure, most driving is local,

This is the only point that matters because it is fulfilled by destination chargers.



That's funny. Also when Model 3 sales go up expect this percentage to go in the other direction very fast.

I don't think so; if fact the percentage may rise.

There will be a period when Apt and condo dwellers start buying Model 3 in large numbers and they may well put pressure on public destination chargers but I expect that to the transient as well until enough political pressure develops to force landlords to either install themselves or allow private L2 charging.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GRA
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Fri Mar 30, 2018 3:29 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:You are not typical. The other extreme is represented by the neighbors of mine when I lived in Marlborough , MA. The longest car trip they ever took was to Springfield MA. Roughly 70 miles one way. A Bolt charged at home only would serve 100% of their needs.

The important group of people now are the second 1%.

About 1% of vehicles sold are electric. What is needed to get to 2%? Once we get to 2%, the second 2% will be the key. What is needed to get to 4%? And so on.

I suspect you are in the last 10%. I don't pretend to see how the last 10% goes.

So you're saying that most people in the east never take road trips?


Who said anything about most? I'm interested in the second 1% of people, the people that are likely to adopt an EV in the next 5 years or so. I'm not talking about majorities. Yet.

1%
2%
4%
8%
16%
32%
64%

Then it would seem reasonable to orient a company's actions to try and serve a population which is predisposed to ZEVs as early as possible, as the potential market still remains limited absent a stronger economic incentive to switch at this time.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Fri Mar 30, 2018 3:40 pm

Evoforce wrote:Since we are referring to charging a Tesla, Superchargers and home charging are not the only ways to charge. Level 2 are at most campgrounds and there are many other 240 volt outlets saturating this country. In addition to this, we can also charge by chademo with the correct adapter.

I have to agree with those who say that most Tesla drivers use their Tesla's instead of using ICE for road trips. I myself, take many adapters but rarely have to use any of them.

No, L2 aren't at most campgrounds in National Parks and Forests let alone at trailheads, and at least in the parks there's usually no electricity and no desire to install any electrical service at them - quite the opposite. RV campgrounds, yes, but then the active outdoors demographic has absolutely no desire to spend time in RV campgrounds where the main point seems to be to bring your existing home with all its appurtenances with you, not forgetting dirt bikes and ATVs. That is not a group that wants to get out of their powered vehicles.

I agree that it's likely the majority of Model S/X owners probably aren't members of the active outdoor demographic, just as surveys showed they're much less 'green' than was typical for early 'affordable' PEV buyers, but Model 3 and especially Model Y customers (if it ever comes out) will have a much higher representation in that demographic.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 8648
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Fri Mar 30, 2018 3:45 pm

SageBrush wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:
SageBrush wrote:This is the only point that matters because it is fulfilled by destination chargers.



That's funny. Also when Model 3 sales go up expect this percentage to go in the other direction very fast.

I don't think so; if fact the percentage may rise.

There will be a period when Apt and condo dwellers start buying Model 3 in large numbers and they may well put pressure on public destination chargers but I expect that to the transient as well until enough political pressure develops to force landlords to either install themselves or allow private L2 charging.

Most of the SCs that Tesla has built so far this year are in urban areas with already existing SCs nearby, so clearly Tesla is building them primarily for local M3 owners who don't have access to home charging, rather than to enable road trips as was the originally announced intent. It will take decades to provide charging at all the existing MUDs even if all the new ones are required to have it, and very few jurisdictions have so far passed building regs that so require.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Fri Mar 30, 2018 4:43 pm

GRA wrote:Most of the SCs that Tesla has built so far this year are in urban areas with already existing SCs nearby, so clearly Tesla is building them primarily for local M3 owners who don't have access to home charging, rather than to enable road trips as was the originally announced intent.
That is not a given, and there is little reason to take a dogmatic black/white stance. These chargers can also serve road trippers who are treating the city as a destination.

I know that a couple of places in California have SC congestion problems. The 72 kW urban chargers may also provide a pressure release for the trip network if placed wisely.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
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Re: IEVS: PORSCHE SAYS NO TO FREE FAST CHARGING, COST CLOSE TO GASOLINE

Fri Mar 30, 2018 4:51 pm

GRA wrote:Then it would seem reasonable to orient a company's actions to try and serve a population which is predisposed to ZEVs as early as possible, as the potential market still remains limited absent a stronger economic incentive to switch at this time.


Really.

What advantages do BEVs have now?
Economic? Without the subsities, there are currently a few people in the USA that could drive a BEV cheaper than a ICE. More in Canada with expensive gasoline.
Convienience? For a purely commuter car with the range of the BEV, it is a pure joy to never need to interrupt your day for a stop at a smelly gas station. Might pay more for the joy, but so?
Performance/luxury? The Model S. Duh.

For a car that drives to remote trailheads? A BEV is at a huge disadvantage. Ditto for cross the USA drivers, most people that live in remote places, and so on.

Why should companies ignore markets where they have a technical advantage to focus on segments where they are at a huge disadvantage?

So where is the second percent of plug-in buyers?
WetEV
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2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
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