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GCC: Study of 5-year TCO suggests ongoing challenge to unsubsidized BEV cost-competitiveness

Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:46 pm
by GRA
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/07/20180709-breetz.html

A team at Arizona State University has analyzed the five-year Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) for representative electric, hybrid, and conventional vehicles—the Nissan Leaf (BEV), Toyota Prius (HEV), and Toyota Corolla (ICEV)—in 14 US cities from 2011 to 2015.

The results, reported in a paper in the journal Energy Policy, show spatial variation due to differences in state and local policies, fuel prices, insurance and maintenance costs, depreciation rates, and vehicle miles traveled. Despite those differences, in nearly all cities, the BEV’s higher purchase price and rapid depreciation outweighed its fuel savings.

Sensitivity analyses highlighted the impact of key parameters and showed that both federal and state incentives were necessary for BEVs to be cost-competitive. . . .

Re: GCC: Study of 5-year TCO suggests ongoing challenge to unsubsidized BEV cost-competitiveness

Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:45 pm
by Oils4AsphaultOnly
GRA wrote:http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/07/20180709-breetz.html

A team at Arizona State University has analyzed the five-year Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) for representative electric, hybrid, and conventional vehicles—the Nissan Leaf (BEV), Toyota Prius (HEV), and Toyota Corolla (ICEV)—in 14 US cities from 2011 to 2015.

The results, reported in a paper in the journal Energy Policy, show spatial variation due to differences in state and local policies, fuel prices, insurance and maintenance costs, depreciation rates, and vehicle miles traveled. Despite those differences, in nearly all cities, the BEV’s higher purchase price and rapid depreciation outweighed its fuel savings.

Sensitivity analyses highlighted the impact of key parameters and showed that both federal and state incentives were necessary for BEVs to be cost-competitive. . . .


As some of the commentors have posted, that study was flawed. Notice that the maintenance on the leaf was exactly the same as that of the prius and corolla and came out to about $3000 over 5 years?

Re: GCC: Study of 5-year TCO suggests ongoing challenge to unsubsidized BEV cost-competitiveness

Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:04 pm
by SageBrush
^^ I presume they used the manufacturer recommended maintenance and typical dealer costs. When I owned Prius vehicles I maintained them very well outside the dealership and ended up paying about 0.5 cents a mile; that is, WAY less than the costs presumed in this study. So both cars can be cheap to maintain or expensive, but it makes sense to use the same rules for comparison.

So I don't fault the study for that reason, and I mostly agree with their somewhat softly said conclusion: EVs are cost competitive when paired with inexpensive PV. That said, 95% of the cars sold in the US today are not "cost competitive" with the Toyota Corolla or Prius so clearly no one would buy any of those cars without subsidy.

Oh, wait. Never mind.