GRA
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IEVS: Electric Car Sales Growth Down In First Half In Europe

Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:52 pm

https://insideevs.com/electric-car-sales-growth-down-in-first-half-in-europe/

According to the article, during the first six months of 2018, plug-in electric car sales in the European Union increased by 33% year-over-year (no numbers were revealed). A year ago the growth was higher – 54%, but we wouldn’t judge that to imply there’s a problems with plug-in cars. Also, the reason that limited range or lack of charging points slows down sales is a rather weak argument.

“Electric cars remain a niche product for now,” EY partner Peter Fuss said in a statement. “Charging infrastructure remains inadequate and the models currently available mostly don’t offer a good enough range.”


The pace of growth is often limited by the supply of electric cars. For example, the Nissan LEAF, the most popular model in Europe, is sold at a rate of 3,000-4,000 thousand a month, but the orders are for 20,000. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: IEVS: Electric Car Sales Growth Down In First Half In Europe

Sat Jul 21, 2018 5:07 am

Nothing to see here. Just GRA trying to make 33% growth of BEV sales seem like a negative thing.

Meanwhile in the US, first half growth in BEV sales was 58% YOY (2018 over 2017) versus 22% YOY the prior year (2017 over 2016):

Historical first half US PEV Sales:
2018: 124,687
2017: 78,930
2016: 64,702
2015: 54,347
2014: 55,680
2013: 40,847
2012: 16,754
2011: 6,620
RegGuheert
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GRA
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Re: IEVS: Electric Car Sales Growth Down In First Half In Europe

Mon Jul 23, 2018 6:46 pm

RegGuheert wrote:Nothing to see here. Just GRA trying to make 33% growth of BEV sales seem like a negative thing.

Meanwhile in the US, first half growth in BEV sales was 58% YOY (2018 over 2017) versus 22% YOY the prior year (2017 over 2016):

Historical first half US PEV Sales:
2018: 124,687
2017: 78,930
2016: 64,702
2015: 54,347
2014: 55,680
2013: 40,847
2012: 16,754
2011: 6,620

Nah, just pointing out that rather than seeing sales growth rates continue to increase, as they should at this point of the growth curve if they are past the tipping point, they aren't. As the total numbers increase sales percentage increases will inevitably decrease, but that shouldn't be happening yet. BTW, the article refers to PEV sales, not BEVs specifically. It's good to see U.S. % numbers are still going up, even though that's due almost entirely to the well over the median price Model 3's sales.
Last edited by GRA on Tue Jul 24, 2018 4:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: IEVS: Electric Car Sales Growth Down In First Half In Europe

Tue Jul 24, 2018 4:56 am

GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:Nothing to see here. Just GRA trying to make 33% growth of BEV sales seem like a negative thing.

Nah, just pointing out that rather than seeing sales continue to increase, as they should at this point of the growth curve if they are past the tipping point, they aren't.


Sales are increasing. 15 years isn't an unreasonable time...
WetEV
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GRA
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Re: IEVS: Electric Car Sales Growth Down In First Half In Europe

Tue Jul 24, 2018 4:07 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:Nothing to see here. Just GRA trying to make 33% growth of BEV sales seem like a negative thing.

Nah, just pointing out that rather than seeing sales continue to increase, as they should at this point of the growth curve if they are past the tipping point, they aren't.


Sales are increasing. 15 years isn't an unreasonable time...

Should have read sales growth rates. I've fixed my previous post.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: IEVS: Electric Car Sales Growth Down In First Half In Europe

Tue Jul 24, 2018 4:43 pm

GRA wrote:Should have read sales growth rates. I've fixed my previous post.


Ah yes, and sales grow rate would be faster if Nissan, Tesla, and a bunch of others could deliver ordered cars.

Consider all of the things that need to be made if we somehow could make and sell only electric cars.

About 100 times as many Li ion cells as currently made, for starters. Not going to happen this month, this year and probably will not happen for more than a decade.

Lots of other parts.

30% growth rate? Might not be able to do a lot better.
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GRA
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Re: IEVS: Electric Car Sales Growth Down In First Half In Europe

Tue Jul 24, 2018 4:55 pm

On a related note, via IEVS:
IEVS: Plug-In Electric Car Sales In Germany Up 23% In June
https://insideevs.com/plug-in-electric-car-sales-in-germany-up-by-23-in-june/

The passenger plug-in electric car market increased in Germany last month by 23% to 5,790 and 1.7% market share.
June was one of the five best months ever although the general pace of growth decreased this summer, as compared to a year ago.

Both types – all-electric and plug-in hybrids – were expanding:

    BEVs: 2,651 – up 21% at 0.78% market share

    PHEVs: 3,139 – up 25% at 0.92% market share

Two BMWs (i3 and 225xe Active Tourer) exceeded 500 registrations in June, but the Renault ZOE (465) was the one that became the best-selling model in the first half of the year – 2,691.

Volkswagen e-Golf was second 2,561 and BMW i3 third (2,449). Nissan LEAF this time was way back at #13 with just 892 registrations during the first six months of 2018 and only 127 in June.

Tesla sold 280 cars in June (200 Model S and 80 Model X) and 1,251 YTD (down 34%) as Model S decreased 32% to 856 and Model X decreased 37.5% to 395 new registrations.

Strong performance was shown by the light delivery electric vehicle produced by DHL. Its StreetScooter noted 680 new registrations in June and 1,680 YTD.

In total, more than 33,500 passenger plug-in electric cars have been registered in Germany so far this year, which is 51% more than a year ago. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: IEVS: Electric Car Sales Growth Down In First Half In Europe

Tue Jul 24, 2018 10:15 pm

Currently about half of Li-ion batteries are used in vehicles.

Global battery capacity set to double by 2021 and slash costs


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... afactories

Even if these additional batteries were all for EVs, this would at most allow for a tripling of EV production with current battery sizes.

Looks like 30% growth rate is about right... unless someone starts planning and building a whole lot more battery factories very soon.
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: IEVS: Electric Car Sales Growth Down In First Half In Europe

Wed Jul 25, 2018 7:17 am

WetEV wrote:Currently about half of Li-ion batteries are used in vehicles.

Global battery capacity set to double by 2021 and slash costs


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... afactories

Even if these additional batteries were all for EVs, this would at most allow for a tripling of EV production with current battery sizes.

Looks like 30% growth rate is about right... unless someone starts planning and building a whole lot more battery factories very soon.


What's more, the average battery size is likely to increase in the next three years with the arrival of more-affordable large-battery cars.
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WetEV
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Re: IEVS: Electric Car Sales Growth Down In First Half In Europe

Wed Jul 25, 2018 7:28 am

GetOffYourGas wrote:
WetEV wrote:Currently about half of Li-ion batteries are used in vehicles.

Global battery capacity set to double by 2021 and slash costs


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... afactories

Even if these additional batteries were all for EVs, this would at most allow for a tripling of EV production with current battery sizes.

Looks like 30% growth rate is about right... unless someone starts planning and building a whole lot more battery factories very soon.


What's more, the average battery size is likely to increase in the next three years with the arrival of more-affordable large-battery cars.


Exactly. And other uses for batteries are growing as well.
WetEV
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