GRA
Posts: 8898
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

McKinsey: The potential impact of electric vehicles on global energy systems

Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:41 pm

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/the-potential-impact-of-electric-vehicles-on-global-energy-systems?cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck-oth-1808&hlkid=684f105a3cd744d6985ec5f4a9f839b7&hctky=1713434&hdpid=8ec69770-82c4-4a44-8c6e-4844c16d1cfc

Electric vehicles are unlikely to create a power-demand crisis but could reshape the load curve. Here’s how to bend that curve to your advantage.

Could electric vehicles (EVs) soon face a different kind of gridlock? With the electrification of mobility accelerating, energy producers and distributors need to understand the potential impact of EVs on electricity demand (Exhibit 1). The good news: McKinsey analysis suggests the projected growth in e-mobility will not drive substantial increases in total electrical-grid power demand in the near to midterm, thus limiting the need for new electricity-generation capacity during that period.

Using information from Germany as an example, EV growth is not likely to cause large increases in power demand through 2030; instead, it potentially adds about 1 percent to the total and requires about five extra gigawatts (GW) of generation capacity. That amount could grow to roughly 4 percent by 2050, requiring additional capacity of about 20 GW. Almost all this new-build capacity will likely involve renewables, including wind and solar power, with some gas-powered generation.

Reshaping the electricity load curve

While the uptake in EV sales is unlikely to cause a significant increase in total power demand, it will likely reshape the electricity load curve. The most pronounced effect will be an increase in evening peak loads, as people plug in their EVs when they return home from work or after completing the day’s errands. However, at a system level, this effect will represent a relatively small percentage at most. Again, taking Germany as an example, we expect an increase in peak load of approximately 1 percent by 2030 and about 5 percent by 2050—increases that the system can likely absorb.

However, the changing load curve will lead to challenges at a local level because the regional spread of EVs will most likely vary—in some cases, significantly. McKinsey’s geospatial-analytics forecast of zip-code-level EV penetration shows suburban areas will likely become early EV-adoption hot spots. Therefore, even at still-low nationwide EV-penetration levels, local pockets with significant EV populations will probably emerge (Exhibit 2). . . .

Beyond peak-load increases, the highly volatile and spiky load profiles of public fast-charging stations will also require additional system balancing. We simulated the load profile of a fast-charging station to explore this situation in greater detail (Exhibit 4). In this case, a single fast-charging station can quickly exceed the peak-load capacity of a typical feeder-circuit transformer.

Unmanaged, substation peak-load increases from EV-charging power demand will eventually push local transformers beyond their capacity, requiring upgrades. Combining data on the distribution of EV penetration per zip code from McKinsey’s geospatial analysis with data on the current utilization of transformers reveals that capital-expenditure requirements as a function of national-level EV penetration follows an S-curve shape. In other words, while investment needs require very few upgrades at low EV penetrations, they jump rapidly as the number of EVs increases and eventually level off again at high penetration levels. Without corrective action, we estimate that the cumulative grid-investment need could exceed several hundred euros per EV. . . .

Also see
GCR: Study: Jump in electric vehicles may not stress California's power grid
https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=26285
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

camasleaf
Posts: 630
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 5:20 am
Delivery Date: 17 Jun 2011
Location: Camas, WA

Re: McKinsey: The potential impact of electric vehicles on global energy systems

Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:04 pm

Three years ago I was working for Bonneville Power Administration. Their only concern with EV was charger behavior for stability studies. They wanted the charger to decrease current draw on voltage drop an increase current on voltage spikes. There was a conference in Reno or Vegas where EV manufacturers talked with transmision operators. EV manufacturers said charger behavior would just a firmware upgrade.

The load was not considered an issue. As the batteries sizes increase less people will be forced to charge at peak hours. $$

They looked at using fast chargers dampening system oscilations. There were not enough of them to have an impact.
2011 SLe 06/17/11 Over 79000 miles 70%SOH 15.2kWh
2018 Honda Clarity PHEV $120 gasoline in 4800 miles
5.7kW DC System

WetEV
Posts: 2198
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: McKinsey: The potential impact of electric vehicles on global energy systems

Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:35 am

GRA wrote:Reshaping the electricity load curve

While the uptake in EV sales is unlikely to cause a significant increase in total power demand, it will likely reshape the electricity load curve. The most pronounced effect will be an increase in evening peak loads, as people plug in their EVs when they return home from work or after completing the day’s errands. However, at a system level, this effect will represent a relatively small percentage at most. Again, taking Germany as an example, we expect an increase in peak load of approximately 1 percent by 2030 and about 5 percent by 2050—increases that the system can likely absorb.


Then provide a discount for a L2 unit that can delay the charge time. Duh.

Overnight is all most people want, most of the time. You only need an hour or so if your commute is roughly 20 miles. And that hour can be anytime between when you plug in and when you unplug. This is an easy problem to fix, and GRA is just trying to find reasons why people should ride a bicycle. Or wait for a hydrogen car, likely forever. New Urbanism.

Please don't dominate the rap, jack, if you got nothing new to say. GRA posts 4.5 articles per day, mostly quoted FUD.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1843
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: McKinsey: The potential impact of electric vehicles on global energy systems

Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:57 am

camasleaf wrote:The load was not considered an issue. As the batteries sizes increase less people will be forced to charge at peak hours. $$


This is true until there are many more EV travelers. Peak hours during the summer could see huge spikes in charging.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

GRA
Posts: 8898
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: McKinsey: The potential impact of electric vehicles on global energy systems

Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:46 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:Reshaping the electricity load curve

While the uptake in EV sales is unlikely to cause a significant increase in total power demand, it will likely reshape the electricity load curve. The most pronounced effect will be an increase in evening peak loads, as people plug in their EVs when they return home from work or after completing the day’s errands. However, at a system level, this effect will represent a relatively small percentage at most. Again, taking Germany as an example, we expect an increase in peak load of approximately 1 percent by 2030 and about 5 percent by 2050—increases that the system can likely absorb.


Then provide a discount for a L2 unit that can delay the charge time. Duh.

Uh huh, and just how long is this need for a bribe to get people to buy a PEV supposed to last, when they are so obviously superior, and what will be the total cost?

WetEV wrote:Overnight is all most people want, most of the time. You only need an hour or so if your commute is roughly 20 miles. And that hour can be anytime between when you plug in and when you unplug. This is an easy problem to fix, and GRA is just trying to find reasons why people should ride a bicycle. Or wait for a hydrogen car, likely forever. New Urbanism.

Easy if you've got unlimited government funds, albeit still time consuming to do.

WetEV wrote:Please don't dominate the rap, jack, if you got nothing new to say. GRA posts 4.5 articles per day, mostly quoted FUD.

If you've got something new to contribute, please feel free to do so. BTW, how exactly is the above FUD? Seems to me it's good news for PEVs, Indicating that the utility load curve issue will be more easily managed than some had supposed. As to the other points which I've occasionally mentioned, I'm looking to help people find whichever non-fossil-fueled, more energy-efficient and resource modes of transport/living will work for them in their situation, not trying to impose my particular choices on anybody.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 2198
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: McKinsey: The potential impact of electric vehicles on global energy systems

Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:37 pm

GRA wrote:Uh huh, and just how long is this need for a bribe to get people to buy a PEV supposed to last, when they are so obviously superior, and what will be the total cost?


Nice sneer in your tone. And good attempt to derail the subject.

The utility company charges less for some electrons, and more for others. The electrons that can be delivered when there is excess capacity are a lot cheaper to provide. You want cheaper electrons? Get a EVSE that can be delayed by the utility until the utility has excess capacity. The utility company might even help you buy it, as it will reduce their cost to provide electric power.

This isn't a bribe. Requires no government funds. Not time consuming to do.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1843
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: McKinsey: The potential impact of electric vehicles on global energy systems

Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:06 am

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:Uh huh, and just how long is this need for a bribe to get people to buy a PEV supposed to last, when they are so obviously superior, and what will be the total cost?


Nice sneer in your tone. And good attempt to derail the subject.

The utility company charges less for some electrons, and more for others. The electrons that can be delivered when there is excess capacity are a lot cheaper to provide. You want cheaper electrons? Get a EVSE that can be delayed by the utility until the utility has excess capacity. The utility company might even help you buy it, as it will reduce their cost to provide electric power.

This isn't a bribe. Requires no government funds. Not time consuming to do.


Right. Far from a bribe. The utilities already pay more for power at certain times of the day. They would be better off with a more consistent load throughout the day. If they can get that by making nighttime electricity cheaper (thereby incentivizing people to use it), it is a win-win. And those who are willing to make the small investment of a timer can easily take advantage of this.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

GRA
Posts: 8898
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: McKinsey: The potential impact of electric vehicles on global energy systems

Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:19 am

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:Uh huh, and just how long is this need for a bribe to get people to buy a PEV supposed to last, when they are so obviously superior, and what will be the total cost?

Nice sneer in your tone. And good attempt to derail the subject.

Actually directly on point, and the major cause of the slow pace in making PEVs mainstream. Of course, if you're a country like China, you can just tell people to sit down, shut up and let the government alone decide how to spend money.

WetEV wrote:[The utility company charges less for some electrons, and more for others. The electrons that can be delivered when there is excess capacity are a lot cheaper to provide. You want cheaper electrons? Get a EVSE that can be delayed by the utility until the utility has excess capacity. The utility company might even help you buy it, as it will reduce their cost to provide electric power.

This isn't a bribe. Requires no government funds. Not time consuming to do.

Having someone else help you pay for something that you wouldn't buy on your own isn't a bribe? Where is the utility getting the money to pay for this - other ratepayers, by any chance, or perhaps the government will give them a tax break to do so. Of course, EVSEs and EVs aren't the only area of tax subsidy, most of which we never see, and which go to support ICEs, fossil fuels and the like, so I consider such subsidies a necessary evil, but inevitably the need to use OPM will slow the rate of installation.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 8898
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: McKinsey: The potential impact of electric vehicles on global energy systems

Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:21 am

GetOffYourGas wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:Uh huh, and just how long is this need for a bribe to get people to buy a PEV supposed to last, when they are so obviously superior, and what will be the total cost?


Nice sneer in your tone. And good attempt to derail the subject.

The utility company charges less for some electrons, and more for others. The electrons that can be delivered when there is excess capacity are a lot cheaper to provide. You want cheaper electrons? Get a EVSE that can be delayed by the utility until the utility has excess capacity. The utility company might even help you buy it, as it will reduce their cost to provide electric power.

This isn't a bribe. Requires no government funds. Not time consuming to do.


Right. Far from a bribe. The utilities already pay more for power at certain times of the day. They would be better off with a more consistent load throughout the day. If they can get that by making nighttime electricity cheaper (thereby incentivizing people to use it), it is a win-win. And those who are willing to make the small investment of a timer can easily take advantage of this.

Sure, until (as noted), the numbers get to be large. Anyone on ToU can delay until off-peak now. The issue with QCs kicking on and requiring heavy surges remains a problem, that will require storage, and also (according to the report) likely require considerable upgrading of transformers.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

camasleaf
Posts: 630
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 5:20 am
Delivery Date: 17 Jun 2011
Location: Camas, WA

Re: McKinsey: The potential impact of electric vehicles on global energy systems

Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:39 pm

"Sure, until (as noted), the numbers get to be large. Anyone on ToU can delay until off-peak now. The issue with QCs kicking on and requiring heavy surges remains a problem, that will require storage, and also (according to the report) likely require considerable upgrading of transformers."

Not necessarily all true. EV drivers do not care when the car is charged as long as it is charge by when they need it. Larger batteries make it less important when the car is charging. It would be a dream come true for utilities to have 10kw loads at each house they can turn off and on to control demand. It would solve problems like the solar production over generation, line overloading due to solar generation.

Transformer upsizing is always part of a utility activity. There are "non wire" (no new equipment) solutions, but they usually only delay the upgrades. A utility I used to work for passed the cost of upgrading transformers to the new consumer.

Until QC becomes main stream at one location the utility can choose to overload the system. Most transformer can be overloaded for period of times, at some life expectantancy cost.

What I am trying to say is that is not as bad as it looks, and there are solution. Utilities did know about EV for almost a decade now. If they were smart they planned accordingly.
2011 SLe 06/17/11 Over 79000 miles 70%SOH 15.2kWh
2018 Honda Clarity PHEV $120 gasoline in 4800 miles
5.7kW DC System

Return to “Business / Economy and Politics”