GRA
Posts: 9427
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

GCC: ABI Research forecasts EV mileage share to exceed 20% by 2030, driven by car-sharing fleets

Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:13 pm

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/08/20180811-abi.html

. . . While consumer adoption of EVs continues to disappoint with only 2% of all vehicles shipping in 2018 expected to be electric, city governments are increasingly becoming aware of their benefits in terms of sustainability, reduced environmental impact, and improved air quality.

The widespread introduction of urban emission zones, initially aimed at banning older diesel vehicles, will culminate in zero emission zones and city centers restricted to EVs only, according to the report by ABI Research.

    Vehicle electrification adoption drivers will increasingly shift from consumer-ownership to shared urban mobility, initially ridesharing followed by driverless EV car sharing in the longer term. The state of California is preparing a bill which would mandate 20% of miles traveled via ride-hailing services to be in EVs by 2023, rising to 50% by 2026. At the same time, Uber’s EV Champions program proactively pushes ridesharing electrification through education, support, and cash incentives for driver-partners.

    —Dominique Bonte, Vice President End Markets at ABI Research

This shift to electric mobility services has important consequences for both charging station and grid infrastructure requirements. The business imperative of continuous operation and availability from both a profitability and customer experience perspective will drive the need for a granular network of both DC fast charging and future wireless public charging stations.

With accelerating EV penetration, increasing stress on public grids will have to be mitigated by advanced demand-response and load balancing software solutions, EV charging management and Vehicle-to-Grid systems, widespread adoption of microgrids, and a more holistic, cross-vertical approach to energy management. . . .

Finally, smart cities transportation electrification will be multimodal, with EVs complemented by electric 2-wheel vehicles (bikes, scooters, and motorbikes), shuttles, boats, and future passenger carrying drones.

ABI suggests that the dominance of car-based mobility is not sustainable. Uber’s recent investment in and partnership with Lime on electric scooter sharing and Lyft’s strategy to integrate bike and scooter sharing shows the urban mobility landscape is yet again being reshaped. . . .

Direct link to report (pay):
Smart Cities and Transportation Electrification
https://www.abiresearch.com/market-research/product/1027475-smart-cities-and-transportation-electrific/
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 2352
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: GCC: ABI Research forecasts EV mileage share to exceed 20% by 2030, driven by car-sharing fleets

Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:25 pm

GRA wrote:http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/08/20180811-abi.html

. . . While consumer adoption of EVs continues to disappoint with only 2% of all vehicles shipping in 2018 expected to be electric,


:lol:

Only double 2016? Exactly how is that a disappointment if your expectations were realistic?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

GRA
Posts: 9427
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: GCC: ABI Research forecasts EV mileage share to exceed 20% by 2030, driven by car-sharing fleets

Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:43 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/08/20180811-abi.html

. . . While consumer adoption of EVs continues to disappoint with only 2% of all vehicles shipping in 2018 expected to be electric,


:lol:

Only double 2016? Exactly how is that a disappointment if your expectations were realistic?

It wasn't a disappointment to me as my expectations were realistic, but it certainly should be to those who predicted much higher percentages by now, 7.5 years after reasonably affordable PEVs were introduced. It was obvious that if Tesla got the Model 3 into mass production both the numbers and percentages would increase substantially from last year. PEVs made up 1.16% of U.S. sales in 2017, and I wrote that we would probably see BEVs alone hit 1% this year, if the Model 3 production problems were worked out. It's only disappointing in that it's still driven by cars that are too expensive for mainstream consumers, yet which still benefit from subsidies. The question has always been what happens when the federal tax credit ends - is there staying power, or will we see a major drop-off just as has occurred repeatedly when other subsidies have ended? Once the better off have got their Model 3 LRs, will lower- or non-subsidized Model 3 SRs sell in substantial numbers going forward, or will this be a once and done?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Return to “Business / Economy and Politics”