. . . In Q2 2018, PEV sales were 35,466 vehicles, up from 22,427 from Q2 2017 and up by 8,255 from Q4 2017. Total market share for PEVs for the quarter was 6.9%, up from 4.3% year-on-year. Battery electric vehicles accounted for 19,358 vehicles, up from 11,828 year-on-year, with market share going from 2.3% in Q2 2017 to 3.7% in Q2 2018. Standard hybrid sales (HEVs except for plug-in hybrids) were 20,595, down from 24,321 year-on-year. Total market share was 4.0%, down from 4.7% year-on year, but the same as the first quarter of this year.
The report attributed PEV sales growth in Q2 to two main factors:
Most PEV sales continue to come as consumers otherwise open to an alternative fuel vehicle shift to plug-ins rather than buying a standard hybrid.
Tesla finally began significant shipments of Model 3 from prior orders. Tesla’s sales in California were up 9,815 from Q2 2017, of which 8,951 were Model 3 shipments for orders posted in the prior year. These sales may indicate that a break from the 9.1% long-term market share may finally be taking place, but more than one quarter of data and sales generated by current rather than prior-year consumer decisions will be needed to show a change in this trend. Counter to previous expectations that Model 3 would finally represent a break-through in BEV prices that would open up electric vehicles to a wider market, current deliveries are at a price point that keeps this model in the near luxury category, limiting its future ability to appeal to a wider segment of the market.
Accounting for normal fleet turnover rates and reductions from persons moving out of California, PEV sales would need to be 3.9 times higher to meet the 2030 goal, the report said. True ZEV sales would have to be 7.8 times higher.
Direct Link to the report,
https://centerforjobs.org/ca/zev-reports/states-progress-on-5-million-zero-emission-vehicles-by-2030-q2-2018-resultsState’s Progress on 5 Million Zero Emission Vehicles by 2030: Q2 2018 Results
. . . Light Trucks Sales Share Up to 55% of Sales
Light truck market share was 55.5%, up from 50.4% in Q2 2017. The growing consumer preference for larger vehicles continues to be a contra-trend affecting the state’s ability to achieve its ZEV goals, as fewer models are available in this market component at price points that would achieve broader sales. The few models that are now offered in this class tend to be in the high end of the market.
Consumer shifts to light trucks for the US outside California was even more pronounced, accounting for 69.6% of new light vehicle sales in this quarter. The potential for California’s ZEV policies to have much of an effect beyond its borders are increasingly limited as a consequence, as few models are being offered for the types of vehicles consumers prefer to buy.
The trend towards light trucks came even in spite of higher fuel prices. The average California price for regular gas in Q2 2018 was $3.66 a gallon, 21.0% higher than the prior year’s $3.03. . . .
The future direction for PEV sales is also uncertain as a result of a looming shift in the subsidies available to buyers of these vehicles. As indicated by prior experiences in Denmark, the Netherlands, and—within the US—Georgia, PEV sales are highly sensitive to changes in these subsidies. California has already made substantial cuts to the availability of its rebates by imposing income limits for eligibility. Tesla appears to have breached the total sales threshold for its models to be eligible for federal rebates, and GM appears to be few quarters away, with Nissan at 60% and Ford at 55% of the cap. . . .