SageBrush
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Re: Utilities have a problem: the public wants 100% renewable energy, and quick

Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:55 am

RegGuheert wrote:
SageBrush wrote:So you wait ... for someone else to do the heavy lifting. That would be California
No I don't.

What you repeatedly call "heavy lifting" is rightfully called "foolishly wasting resources and doing excessive damage to the environment". That is the direct outcome of deploying energy technologies before they are ready for widespread adoption.

No, it is called creating a market for innovation.
It is called price reductions through scale.


It starts small and expensive, and benefits from regulatory tailwinds.

California forges ahead while your moronic southern states collect coal ash ponds for the next flood.
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WetEV
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Re: Utilities have a problem: the public wants 100% renewable energy, and quick

Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:01 am

RegGuheert wrote:
SageBrush wrote:So you wait ... for someone else to do the heavy lifting. That would be California
No I don't.

What you repeatedly call "heavy lifting" is rightfully called "foolishly wasting resources and doing excessive damage to the environment". That is the direct outcome of deploying energy technologies before they are ready for widespread adoption.


Yes, actually trying things new is wasteful. The way to make technologies of any type ready for widespread adoption is to actually try them.

The first of anything is more expensive. The first of anything doesn't work as well as you would like. In order to learn things, you need to try things. In order to move down the price production curve, you need to produce the product.

Sure, trying something new is likely at least partially a mistake. Every time. Got that.

The alternative is to never try something new. That is almost always worse.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Utilities have a problem: the public wants 100% renewable energy, and quick

Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:05 am

WetEV wrote:The alternative is to never try something new. That is almost always worse.
Nice strawman argument which no one put forth.

But forcing widespread adoption of renewables on the grid through government mandate increases damage to the environment and drives up both taxes and per-kWh consumer prices.

Let's not pretend I said anything other than that.
RegGuheert
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10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
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WetEV
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Re: Utilities have a problem: the public wants 100% renewable energy, and quick

Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:18 am

RegGuheert wrote:forcing widespread adoption of renewables on the grid through government mandate increases damage to the environment and drives up both taxes and per-kWh consumer prices.

Let's not pretend I said anything other than that.


The alternative is likely to never have widespread adoption of renewables. Or at least until the mining of last lump of coal is fast approaching.
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powersurge
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Re: Utilities have a problem: the public wants 100% renewable energy, and quick

Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:46 am

First of all... Who cares what a bunch or preselect dopes on the street say on a survey. People will say that that they would welcome space aliens from Venus if you ask them.. Especially of only 51%/49% was "pro". That means 49% was "con". Its like the Democrats want free healthcare, college, housing, and money for everybody... It will not happen....

The public does not 100% renewables... IMMEDIATELY. I don't want 100% renewables to happen in a rush. Has anyone ever thought of what it would COST to suddenly put up solar and wind power for the whole country? I want renewables to increase consistently, maybe 3-5% annually. In 15-20 years THEN we will be all renewable.

The telephone did not explode when it was invented..... It slowly evolved and developed. That is the proper way to bring in new tech.
Last edited by powersurge on Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

WetEV
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Re: Utilities have a problem: the public wants 100% renewable energy, and quick

Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:58 am

RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:
Randy wrote:I've worked in our local grid control center for over a decade, and the only feasible way I see us getting to those high % of renewable goals is with a lot of expensive storage batteries.

And the one thing that I hear virtually no one talk about is the fact that the batteries have a finite life span. So spending a bunch of money on the batteries in the beginning is not the total cost of operation...
Battery power has a cost. Do the math. Utility installs are likely to be $100 per kWh by the time they become common. If they have a 10 year life, and are cycled 300 days a year, the cost is about $0.03 per cycle.

If your solar is $0.03 cheaper than your coal power, coal loses. Even before the public willing to pay more to not have a mercury spewing monster next door.
It is truly sad that anyone believes that this crude, back-of-the-envelope calculation constitutes "doing the math".


No, more like a challenge to do the math. I was too terse, I grant.

RegGuheert wrote:I'm here to tell you that it does not. When you actually do the math, you find that reality is nothing like the calculation that WetEV puts forth.


Especially if you use yesterday's retail prices and limit your calculations to a single house. Yes, Reg, you failed to do the math on the future utility scale problem as well. Yes, my computation isn't complete and universal.

RegGuheert wrote:There are important factors that crop up, such as the fact that where WetEV lives or in places like Germany, the production of PV panels in wintertime is 1/6 what it is in summertime.


We have these thing called "rain panels" that produce more power in the winter. :lol:

Image

RegGuheert wrote:It is incredibly naive to imagine this to be a simple, low-cost transition. And it is reprehensible to tell others that it will only increase the cost of electricity by 30%, or 50% or even 100% over using existing technology. Sometime in the future renewables will likely cost less than the current electricity grid. But California is the poster child for driving up the price of everything through governmental mandates for technologies whose time has not yet come.


Worse than that, we don't know what the future cost will be. It might much more expensive, or even be cheaper than today's electric power, not even counting costs like acid rain, climate change, mercury emissions and such what.

Waiting for markets to take this kind of risk isn't going to work.
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GRA
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Re: Utilities have a problem: the public wants 100% renewable energy, and quick

Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:00 pm

DarthPuppy wrote:Yeah my main point I guess is that it is easier to say on a survey you are okay with paying more for clean energy. It is quite different to actually do it. Way too many people in the country are living paycheck to paycheck.

If those views were as widely held as the survey suggests, I would expect to see a lot more homes in So. Cal. with solar panels. Here in California, we are supposedly more green oriented than the rest of the country except possibly OR and WA. And we are well positioned for solar productivity.

California's got around 800k homes with PV, but about 8 million customers have opted (either individually or by community, including mine) for green electricity providers, so just because they don't have PV on their homes doesn't mean they aren't opting to pay more for VRE.

DarthPuppy wrote:I also don't see it in the other consumer behaviors like car buying. If people are truly willing to pay 30% more for green, I think I'd see a lot more EVs, PHEVs, and even regular hybrids running around. I do see that in the wealthier communities. But that isn't what makes up the population base.

Now I acknowledge the above two observations are anecdotal and not statistically collected. But data that drives Ford to abandon cars because the US consumer wants big, inefficient trucks, doesn't really support that public opinion is anywhere near as strong as what the article asserts.

I expect what people want is 100% renewably-powered CUVs with comparable capability and infrastructure to ICEs, that cost no more to buy. We're obviously not there yet, and we both agree that prices have to drop to mass-market levels before we will see mass-market uptake. That being said, the number of PEVs in my occasional evening commute counts has risen considerably over the past two years, and I'm seeing Model 3s so often in the last month or so they're almost common - I spotted an ex-girlfriend driving a black one last week! :lol: How much of this is driven by aversion to the current administration in Washington, and how much by the fact that there are now a fairly large number of relatively affordable PEV models with adequate capability I couldn't say, but I imagine it's mostly the latter. We're still waiting on the mass-market-priced AWD BECUV that I expect will really kick things into high gear.

On points raised by others, the general public has no idea of the costs involved in going 100% renewable, and that the last 1/3rd will likely cost more than the first 2/3rds. But that's no reason not to get as far along the path as possible as early as possible. As we do so, the ultimate costs including storage will come into much better focus, and the public will become more realistic. Of course, we're not going to go 100% renewables for all energy: among other things, if we need to continue using steel we need coke from coal, as the necessary amounts of charcoal would take most of the acreage of the Amazon rain forest in high-yield and heavily fertilized and pesticided monoculture tree farms, with the attendant environmental costs.
Last edited by GRA on Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Utilities have a problem: the public wants 100% renewable energy, and quick

Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:39 am

GRA wrote:On points raised by others, the general public has no idea of the costs involved in going 100% renewable,...
The general public has no idea what converting the grid to renewable energy will cost mainly because they have been lied to repeatedly by pundits who claim that it will cost them next to nothing to accomplish. In Germany, they even told that renewable energy would be cheaper than what was there before. Now, after being heavily taxed and having their rates increased to be some of the highest on the planet, they are starting to find out how badly they have been swindled.
GRA wrote:But that's no reason not to get as far along the path as possible as early as possible.
Sorry, GRA, but the ends DO NOT justify the means. It is NOT O.K. to lie to the public to get legislation pushed through.

The piece you posted from Vox is nothing both a thinly-veiled bit of propaganda aimed at deceiving the public into thinking the transition will be cheap and easy, and therefore is something we absolutely must do. Their message could hardly be farther from the truth.
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Re: Utilities have a problem: the public wants 100% renewable energy, and quick

Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:03 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:On points raised by others, the general public has no idea of the costs involved in going 100% renewable,...
The general public has no idea what converting the grid to renewable energy will cost mainly because they have been lied to repeatedly by pundits who claim that it will cost them next to nothing to accomplish. In Germany, they even told that renewable energy would be cheaper than what was there before. Now, after being heavily taxed and having their rates increased to be some of the highest on the planet, they are starting to find out how badly they have been swindled

Yet the German public still supports it overwhelmingly, because they consider it worth doing: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/polls-reveal-citizens-support-energiewende

Key phrasing for measuring citizens’ support for Energiewende: "Do you generally approve of the Energiewende?"

2017
Agree
88%
Partly agree/disagree / n.a. 9%
Disagree 3%

A vast majority of Germans broadly support the Energiewende’s aim to decarbonise the economy but a large share also says that the associated burden is not shared equally, the Social Sustainability Barometer 2017 by the Potsdam Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) says. Together with pollster forsa and the RWI Leibniz-Institute, the IASS conducted a panel survey of 7,500 households and subsequently a qualitative survey based on 50 interviews in late 2017.

Nearly 90 percent of those surveyed endorse the energy transition, but almost two thirds say costs are not fairly allocated between average wage earners, businesses and wealthy people. A clear majority of 75 percent say they want to actively take part in making the energy transition happen and renewables expansion, energy conservation, and greater energy efficiency all enjoy support by at least 80 percent of those surveyed. . . .


RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:But that's no reason not to get as far along the path as possible as early as possible.
Sorry, GRA, but the ends DO NOT justify the means. It is NOT O.K. to lie to the public to get legislation pushed through.

The piece you posted from Vox is nothing both a thinly-veiled bit of propaganda aimed at deceiving the public into thinking the transition will be cheap and easy, and therefore is something we absolutely must do. Their message could hardly be farther from the truth.

Reg, where have I ever advocated lying to the public, or that going 100% renewables would be easy? Reviewing my posts in the El Hierro topic should disabuse you of those ideas.

As to the Vox piece, I parse it differently than you. The public isn't interested in hearing utility company reasons as to why going 100% renewable will be difficult/impossible, because they're used to big business telling them over the years that something the public deems desirable will be either too expensive or impossible to do, whether the subject is pollution, auto safety, etc., yet they have been done without the sky falling. The facts don't matter in this case, because the public isn't willing to hear them. The fact that in the 100% renewables case it almost certainly will be impossible at a reasonable price (until the advent of cheap mass storage) is too bad for the utilities, but they'll just have to deal with that unrealistic expectation by pitching the right message - the article gives examples of the approaches that won't work as well as those which the public's more receptive to, and it's the latter that will get the public to accept a more realistic approach, e.g. something like option #2 aka the California method.

To me, that is the gist of the article. The fact that we can do the first 2/3rds using today's tech with relatively little disruption or extra cost is the reason to go full speed ahead on that because we want to do it in any case, even though the last third will (barring a breakthrough) be very difficult and expensive.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Utilities have a problem: the public wants 100% renewable energy, and quick

Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:08 am

GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:On points raised by others, the general public has no idea of the costs involved in going 100% renewable,...
The general public has no idea what converting the grid to renewable energy will cost mainly because they have been lied to repeatedly by pundits who claim that it will cost them next to nothing to accomplish. In Germany, they even told that renewable energy would be cheaper than what was there before. Now, after being heavily taxed and having their rates increased to be some of the highest on the planet, they are starting to find out how badly they have been swindled

Yet the German public still supports it overwhelmingly, because they consider it worth doing: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/polls-reveal-citizens-support-energiewende
The German public has been lied to to decades about Energiewende. It is only within the last couple of weeks that German federal auditors started telling the truth about what is actually going on:
GWPF wrote:The expenditure for the ecological restructuring of the energy supply is in a “blatant disproportion to the hitherto poor yield”, said President of the Court of Audit Kay Scheller in Berlin: “The Federal Government is at risk to fail with its once in a generation project of the Energiewende”.
GRA wrote:Reg, where have I ever advocated lying to the public, or that going 100% renewables would be easy?
In fact, in the very next paragraph, you say this:
GRA wrote:The facts don't matter in this case, because the public isn't willing to hear them.
If that's not advocating for lying to the public, then YOU don't know what is. No where is there anything in EPRI's survey that says the public does not want to hear the facts. You made that up completely in your mind as part of your misguided advocacy. The EPRI survey just says that different percentages of the public support moving to renewables IF it only raises electricity prices by various amounts. Nowhere does it say that people do not want to know what the actual costs will be.

Put simply, the EPRI survey says what is says. It doesn't say what you or Vox are saying that it says.
GRA wrote:The fact that we can do the first 2/3rds using today's tech with relatively little disruption or extra cost...
What you claim to be a "fact" is merely a fantasy of yours which is disproved by actual experience. It may be possible to do that in Texas, but the idea that you can apply such analyses to the rest of the U.S., particularly in the Northeast, is extremely naive.
RegGuheert
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10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

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