GRA
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IEVS: Plug-In Electric Cars Sales In U.S. Surpass 1 Million

Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:23 pm

https://insideevs.com/1-million-electric-cars-sold-us/

Thanks to nearly 45,000 plug-in cars sold in September, cumulative sales of all plug-in models reached one million units. For mainstream consumers, electrification began in December 2010, when the first Nissan LEAFs and Chevrolet Volts were delivered – we tracked those numbers with passion every month!

Technically, our tally of mainstream models indicates almost 999,500 (since December 2010 through the end of September 2018), but first – it’s partially estimated (the error is within 1 million) and secondly – there is are less than a few thousand road-legal plug-ins outside of our mainstream tracking (like the Tesla Roadster) that have been sold (since 2008).

In other words, we are sure that in the last days of September or first few days of October, the U.S. crossed 1 million plug-in electric cars! The government’s goal was to achieve 1 million by the end of 2015. Well, we did it by 2018.

The most popular brands that together represents 70% of sales were:

Tesla – 273,773 (Model S + Model X + Model 3, without Roadster)
General Motors – 193,430 (Chevrolet Volt, Bolt EV, Spark EV plus Cadillac ELR & CT6 PHV)
Nissan – 125,513 (LEAF)
Ford – 110,130 (Fusion Energi, C-Max Energi, Focus Electric)

Three years late, but better than never. Unless there's a major increase in sales this month, GM will probably hit 200k by the end of November and the credits will start to phase out. If I were Hyundai/Kia, I'd sell as few Konas/Niros as possible until April, when the Bolt's tax credit will drop to $3,750. Will GM drop the Bolt's MSRP?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

DarthPuppy
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Re: IEVS: Plug-In Electric Cars Sales In U.S. Surpass 1 Million

Sun Oct 07, 2018 6:59 pm

IIRC, doesn't the tapering of the incentive have a delay feature - i.e., the drop in the tax credit happens in calendar 2019 if the 2018 GM sales take the units to over 200k? Otherwise, you have to figure out which person who bought in 2018 bought unit 199,999- and gets the credit while those who bought unit 200,001+ don't get the credit.

So I'd be surprised if GM dropped the price by a corresponding amount until 2019.
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DarthPuppy
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Re: IEVS: Plug-In Electric Cars Sales In U.S. Surpass 1 Million

Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:10 pm

I consider this to be very good news. The trend in the chart is looking good. Of course, it would have been nice to have cleared this milestone in 2015 as originally targeted.

Sad to see the Leaf lagging so badly. When Chevy announced the Bolt, Nissan said they would beat it. We're still waiting... :roll:
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: IEVS: Plug-In Electric Cars Sales In U.S. Surpass 1 Million

Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:00 am

DarthPuppy wrote:IIRC, doesn't the tapering of the incentive have a delay feature - i.e., the drop in the tax credit happens in calendar 2019 if the 2018 GM sales take the units to over 200k? Otherwise, you have to figure out which person who bought in 2018 bought unit 199,999- and gets the credit while those who bought unit 200,001+ don't get the credit.

So I'd be surprised if GM dropped the price by a corresponding amount until 2019.


Assuming GM hits 200k this quarter (they'd have to try hard not to), all vehicles sold in this quarter and the next (i.e. through March 2019) get the full credit. That's why Guy mentioned April - as of April 1st, any GM vehicle would only get 1/2 of the credit for two quarters. Then they get 1/4 for two quarters.

In other words:

$7500 through March 31, 2019
$3750 from April 1, 2019 through September 30, 2019
$1875 from October 1, 2019 through March 31, 2020
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

DarthPuppy
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Re: IEVS: Plug-In Electric Cars Sales In U.S. Surpass 1 Million

Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:31 pm

Thanks for that clarification. I'm glad it is a tapering by quarter.

So Tesla has triggered that threshold already. Are Tesla sales now only getting 1/2 credit? Or is that about to happen?
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GRA
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Re: IEVS: Plug-In Electric Cars Sales In U.S. Surpass 1 Million

Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:14 pm

DarthPuppy wrote:Thanks for that clarification. I'm glad it is a tapering by quarter.

So Tesla has triggered that threshold already. Are Tesla sales now only getting 1/2 credit? Or is that about to happen?

Tesla crossed the threshold on or slightly after July 1st, so they get full credit for all of Q3 and Q4, 1/2 credit from January 1st to June 30th, then 1/4 credit until the end of 2019. GM's credits will decrease one quarter after Tesla's if they maintain their current sales pace. If they want to ape Tesla they'd have to delay crossing the 200k threshold until January 1st so they get the benefit of two full quarters at $7.5k, but that seems unlikely.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

DarthPuppy
Posts: 695
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 8:45 pm
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Re: IEVS: Plug-In Electric Cars Sales In U.S. Surpass 1 Million

Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:31 pm

Thanks for the details on that.

I concur that Tesla has more incentive to game the cutoff dates. Having 1 more quarter to fulfill orders to people who put down deposits thinking the car would cost $x, less $y credits for a net cost of $z is good marketing strategy. This will result in fewer customers pissed off when the car costs more than they agreed to because the delivery wasn't done in time for the credits.

For GM, these aren't anywhere near a major sales line for them, whereas for Tesla it is most of their business. So odds of GM's management team handling this well might not be as good. I would bet someone will refuse to game the cutoff and spite long term sales success simply because x number of units this year equals a better bonus at year end for that one person or small group of executives. I've seen that logic rule in too many US corporations. Too many executives will kill next year sales just to goose this year numbers and get a slightly nicer bonus this year.
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smkettner
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Re: IEVS: Plug-In Electric Cars Sales In U.S. Surpass 1 Million

Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:33 pm

GM has no 400,000 backlog to ramp up production during the 'unlimited' period of declining credit.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV
I-Pace on order for end of 2018 delivery

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